The 2008 Japanese GP Preview

After Singapore, championship leader Lewis Hamilton has a little more breathing space - and now he's returning to the scene of one of his finest victories.

But any confidence he gains from memories of his consummate domination of last year's Japanese Grand Prix at Fuji will be tempered by thoughts of what happened next, as he squandered a 12-point advantage in the subsequent races and somehow ended the season as runner-up.

In Singapore the title battle had to take a back seat as the excitement of Formula One's highly successful first step into night racing dominated conversation, but in Japan the focus will be on Hamilton versus Felipe Massa again.

Massa can take comfort from the fact that Ferrari probably had the speed to beat Hamilton back to third place had Singapore run smoothly. That didn't happen, though, so now he's got a seven-point deficit to overcome, and is heading for a circuit where rain is more than likely, with a car that has so far floundered in the wet, and with a reputation for doing likewise himself. It's time for Massa to strike back, confound his critics again, and regain the initiative in this constantly evolving title contest.

Five talking points

1. The weather

It will be more surprising if Fuji dawns dry than wet. Last year only Friday practice escaped the rain, and a combination of downpours and fog saw the Saturday morning session abandoned altogether. There is nothing half-hearted about the Fuji region's weather - last year's race started with 19 laps behind the safety car and even during this period drivers were spinning off and complaining that they couldn't see their own dashboards amid the spray.

Will we see a similarly sodden situation in 2008 - and if so, will Ferrari struggle once more, will Hamilton capitalise in the way that he failed to at Monza, and will Sebastian Vettel and Toro Rosso embarrass the title contenders again? The young German will be under pressure to star if it pours.

2. Renault on form

Despite their difficult season, everyone knew that Fernando Alonso remained one of the finest drivers on the grid, and that Renault were still one of the sharpest teams in the pitlane. Their Singapore triumph was a stirring reminder of what they can achieve together, but Fuji will perhaps be more telling. Alonso thinks Renault's recent gains have brought them into the podium fight in any circumstances, but he isn't expecting another win. Will Renault slump or hang on at the front?

3. The 'number twos'

Team orders have been a hot topic as the title fight distilled into a Hamilton/Massa showdown. Unfortunately for them, though, their respective teammates Heikki Kovalainen and Kimi Raikkonen haven't been contributing a great deal to the cause, as both have major issues of their own to resolve.

How has the reigning world champion failed to win since April, and failed to score a single point since Hungary in early August? And what has become of the Kovalainen who pushed Hamilton so hard and seemed only to need a change of luck in the first half of the season. He's been muted ever since his dominant Silverstone pole turned into a low-key fourth on race day.

Whichever one of the top two teams can get their Finn back on the pace will have a key strategic advantage, because if one of the title contenders can get a teammate between themselves and their championship rival, it could make all the difference at the end of the season.

4. Toyota at home

Toyota has spent a considerable sum bringing its Fuji track up to F1 standard, so its team's abject performance in Japan last year was an embarrassment. After an excellent summer, they're now dropping away from Renault in the battle for fourth in the constructors' championship - although this week team president John Howett said they were more interested in scoring podiums in the remaining races than wrapping up fourth in the standings.

5. A night race next year?

While celebrating the success of his night racing vision in Singapore, Bernie Ecclestone casually remarked that Japan was next on his list of potential floodlit GPs. Illuminating the wide open expanses of Fuji and Suzuka will be a totally different task to what was achieved on the streets of Singapore, although MotoGP (in Qatar) and Champ Car (Cleveland) have proved that night racing at road courses can work. Will this be the final daylight Japanese GP, and what will the Japanese authorities - and particularly circuit owners Toyota and Honda - make of Ecclestone's request?

Success factors

Felipe Massa in the wet at Silverstone during the British Grand Prix © LAT

Wet weather skill

Of course it might be dry at Fuji this year, but the odds are against that eventuality, so those drivers who are more naturally attuned to a wet track - both in terms of their car control and their instinct for finding grip amid the puddles - ought to thrive. But with tyre performance now ultra-critical, generating tyre and brake temperature in the wet has become just as vital as throttle control. This has been Ferrari's Achilles heel so far this year, although the team were more optimistic after a rainy test at Mugello last month.

Quick thinking

Wet races are never straightforward, and with fluctuating conditions and the possibility of safety cars, pit strategy could have to be decided on the hoof. Renault have proved adept at this, some of the larger teams less so. The teams might also find themselves going into qualifying or the race lacking data if practice sessions are disrupted by the weather - or even cancelled, as last year's fog-shrouded Saturday session was.

Straight-line speed

What might happen in a dry race at Fuji remains something of a mystery, but as it features the longest straight in F1, power is going to be vital. The rest of the circuit is quite tortuous, but this one straight accounts for one third of the lap. Taking wing off to guarantee a strong run down the pits straight could prove counter-productive elsewhere given the tight sections. Conversely running too much wing will leave drivers vulnerable to be overtaken on the straight (with a slow complex leading onto it and a tight hairpin at the end, passing should be on the cards) and then delayed around the rest of the circuit. A strong engine allows more of a compromise set-up and solves both these problems.

Strategy

Again, this remains rather an unknown quantity in a dry race. Like most of the latest circuits, Fuji ought to be a standard two-stop run, with those in the midfield likely to opt for much longer first stints, and the softer tyre saved for the final laps when all is settled. If the weather proves wet though, then expect many teams - especially those towards the back - to squeeze as much fuel in as possible to give themselves maximum flexibility should the weather change or the safety car appear.

That's fine if you don't mind starting down the order, but for the title contenders, a heavy fuel load in qualifying just isn't an option. Visibility was a huge issue in last year's wet race, and neither Hamilton nor Massa will want to strand themselves in the mid-pack spray. They have to be ahead of potential problems, so must carry light qualifying fuel loads and try to make an early break.

Last year both Hamilton and Alonso found themselves punted into spins by cars on different strategies after their first stops left them temporarily mid-pack, and those incidents could have been far more costly. The title rivals need to play in safe - and the safest play to be in a Fuji downpour is out front, so their strategies will be geared towards this.

The inside line

Honda's Rubens Barrichello on his initial impressions of Fuji:

"I was very impressed with the Fuji Speedway. The track is a lot more interesting than we originally thought with a nice flow and some tight challenging corners towards the end of the lap.

"We had limited dry running last year, and then of course the very wet race, so we don't have a comparison of how the track would be over a normal race weekend. There are a couple of potential overtaking places though, which is always good to see in a new circuit.

"I always enjoy visiting Japan and you want to do your best at your home race. As Honda drivers, we enjoy some really good support over the Japanese Grand Prix weekend. The fans are such good fun and crazy about Formula One."

Felipe Massa in the wet at Silverstone during the British Grand Prix © LAT

History

This is only Fuji's fourth Grand Prix, but the circuit already has its place in F1 legend. James Hunt's dramatic title clincher in 1976 will never be forgotten, while F1's return to the track last season saw Hamilton claim a stunning victory that at the time looked set to guarantee him the title amid levels of rain reminiscent of 1976.

Fuji's 1977 race was marred by the deaths of a marshal and a photographer, who were struck by Gilles Villeneuve's Ferrari as it became airborne following a tangle with Ronnie Peterson, and the Japanese GP subsequently fell off the F1 calendar until 1987, when Honda's huge success saw the sport reappear at the manufacturer's own Suzuka track.

Suzuka became best-known for infamous title deciders, as it hosted Alain Prost and Ayrton Senna's 1989 and 1990 collisions, the latter's maiden crown in 1988, Damon Hill's 1996 title, both of Mika Hakkinen's clinchers in 1998 and 1999, and Michael Schumacher's first and fourth championships for Ferrari in 2000 and 2003.

In 2005 the title battle was already settled by Suzuka, but instead it was the scene of one of the finest races of all time, as Alonso and Raikkonen surged through from the back of the grid after rain in qualifying, with the latter grabbing the lead around the outside on the final lap.

Amongst the drivers, though, it was mainly revered as a supreme challenge rivaled only by Spa and Monte Carlo, with the never-ending S-bends at the start of the lap and the ultra-fast 130R the circuit's highlights. The drivers were pleasantly surprised by Fuji's modern layout last season (which was rather anonymous on paper but improved by gradients in reality), but that doesn't mean most of them won't be glad to swap it for a return to Suzuka in 2009, as the race will henceforth alternate between the two tracks.