The 2007 Turkish GP Preview

The Turkish Grand Prix at Istanbul Park is a stern test of car and driver.

It is one of the few anti-clockwise circuits, with a fast straight capped by a flowing collection of slow corners, some faster sequences with several changes of direction, and the infamous turn eight.

Drivers will find that their necks are put under unusual strain, and the front-right tyre faces particular punishment.

Downforce levels are at a medium level, but surprisingly low considering the number of slow corners, so drivers are working hard to keep the cars on track - particularly as they can bottom out when running fuller fuel loads.

The teams and drivers like this circuit (if not the access road) and generally look forward to it. Somewhat technical, it is tough to get the cars set up well.

And the drivers are challenged by the different lines they can use - not only can they make a difference, but overtaking is possible, if tough, so it is possible to make up for a poor qualifying session.

Flashback

Felipe Massa took his first win in the 2006 Turkish Grand Prix © LAT

In 2006, Schumacher looked dominant in qualifying, but was pipped on the front row by Massa after making a mistake in turn one, giving the Brazilian his first career pole.

Alonso led Fisichella for a Renault second row; Ralf Schumacher put his Toyota in to fifth (though he had a ten-place engine change penalty pending), ahead of Heidfeld and Button. Raikkonen's McLaren was eighth, with Kubica and Webber following.

At the start, Alonso briefly threatened to pass Schumacher for second but backed out, resulting in Fisichella braking hard and spinning across Heidfeld, causing in broken front wings for both.

Raikkonen pushed Webber on the grass as he attempted to make room for Kubica; Klien then dove up the inside before Speed ran into the back of Raikkonen's McLaren, resulting in both cars retiring.

Trulli drove across his team-mate's front wing, breaking it and causing him to bump Sato, who hit Monteiro, resulting in the Midland and Super Aguri being damaged. The order behind the leaders was well and truly shaken up!

Massa slowly opened up a lead at the front, with Schumacher also pulling out some space over Alonso. Schumacher just started closing down the gap to Massa when, on lap 12, Liuzzi spun and stopped on the racing line, resulting in a safety car.

Most of the field pitted, but Schumacher was queued behind Massa for 12 seconds, resulting in Alonso passing. When the racing restarted, Alonso and Massa opened up space, but Schumacher was struggling with blistering rears and had some hairy moments, particularly at turn eight.

The leading duo stopped on lap 39, with Schumacher's 43rd lap stop bringing him within range. He closed down Alonso and began to fight for the place - although clearly faster than the Renault, he was losing time through turn eight, so he had to make up the gap before the passing opportunity on turn twelve.

The duel came to a conclusion with Schumacher finishing alongside Alonso, a tenth adrift in second. It all rather took the shine of Massa's first Formula One win!

Pos Driver        Team                  Time
 1. Massa         Ferrari          (B)  1h28:51.082
 2. Alonso        Renault          (M)  +     5.575
 3. M.Schumacher  Ferrari          (B)  +     5.656
 4. Button        Honda            (M)  +    12.334
 5. de la Rosa    McLaren-Mercedes (M)  +    45.908
 6. Fisichella    Renault          (M)  +    46.594
 7. R.Schumacher  Toyota           (B)  +    59.337
 8. Barrichello   Honda            (M)  +  1:00.034

Fastest race lap: M.Schumacher, 1:28.005
Qualifying best: M.Schumacher, Q2, 1:25.850

Weather

With temperatures expected to hit 32.C, teams are going to be working hard to improve cooling to the engines, not to mention keeping stern eye on the wear characteristics of the tyres.

Track temperatures will be pushing 50.C at times, so maintaining the correct operating temperatures will be a tough ask.

As if that were not enough, moderately high winds are predicted for the whole weekend. Whilst the direction should largely be consistent, gusts and lulls will play havoc with drivers who are sitting right on the edge of performance in corners.

Strategy

This looks set to be a fairly standard two-stop race. Tyre wear is enough to make a single stop awkward unless a team is relatively light on tyres, whilst the gains from the lower fuel load for a three stop strategy are unlikely to offset the time it takes to overtake those on heavier loads.

Conclusions

Returning to a medium-downforce track that suits their car, particularly with both their drivers up to speed, Ferrari are slightly favoured for the win at this circuit.

That said, despite the chinks in the McLaren facade, they clearly remain in contention at the front and should fight to the wire if they can persuade their drivers to play nicely together.

BMW Sauber remain the class of the rest, though unlikely to get on the podium without a slip from the leading outfits, whilst Renault, Williams and Toyota should be fighting each other for the remaining points places.

Team by Team

McLaren detail © LAT

McLaren Mercedes

The Turkish event was a pretty poor outing for McLaren last year, as Raikkonen went out after being collected by Speed, though de la Rosa did work his way up to fifth.

Nevertheless, it was a lot less bother than their last outing. In Hungary, the race win came with a difficult price, as inter-driver frictions became very public when Hamilton ignored team orders, Alonso blocked him in the pits, and the stewards issued punishments.

With the final repercussions of that contretemps pending an appeal, the team is heading to Turkey under something of a cloud.

The media is more interested in the potential story of the breakdown between the drivers and team management than their on-track performance, not to mention the whole question of how race stewards might be interfering with how a team run their drivers.

Then again, there is the question of how the drivers will treat each other when they inevitably cross paths, particularly on the track on race day.

While they are not Prost and Senna, the inevitable comparisons are paving the way in popular imagination for similar 'showdown' scenarios. Given the normal McLaren 'no team orders' mandate, it is entirely reasonable to expect that things will get very interesting.

Adding to the pressure on the team this weekend, heading to a more typical medium-downforce circuit, Ferrari should be back to their fully competitive best, so the team is going to have to maintain complete focus if they are to be in a position to win.

1. Fernando Alonso: The reigning World Champion has clearly got a battle on his hands if he is to get back on terms with his rookie team-mate.

After the qualifying drama in Hungary he now has the world scrutinising every move, looking for malicious intent. Nothing restores the faith of a team like delivering results, so he is well placed to get it done this weekend.

2. Lewis Hamilton: Despite sympathy in the media for the qualifying situation, the fact that Hamilton was not blameless has not been missed by anyone - though in contrast to Alonso, it seems to have enhanced his reputation as a dedicated rookie, rather than tarnished it with the stigma of someone who will commit a 'professional foul' to win.

Having illustrated his ability to perform under the spotlight, expectation is generally for another strong performance.

Objectives: Pole and race win.

Renault

Having filled the second row in qualifying last year, Alonso took a fine second whilst Fisichella recovered from a terrible start to make up sixth.

In Hungary, the team looked pretty mediocre, even though Kovalainen scored a point. It is little wonder that they are writing the year off and focusing on 2008.

Accordingly, this weekend is the last time they are likely to bring out any significant developments, so even though with only a minor aerodynamic upgrade officially announced, there may be more than that going on behind the scenes.

Performance-wise, both drivers are capable of getting the car into Q3 on a good day, and they are both able to score points, but only if they have a flawless performance - Toyota and Williams are very much on a par with the Renaults in terms of performance at the moment.

3. Giancarlo Fisichella: Having now been out-qualified by his team-mate six times in eleven events, Fisichella is struggling to contain the youngster, whose slow start to the year has been all but forgotten.

Getting back on top of this relationship is going to require a step up in performance.

4. Heikki Kovalainen: Finally in full stride, the rookie has been putting together some decent performances, scoring points on the last three outings. Another points finish is in the offing if he can maintain the standard.

Objectives: Get both cars into Q3 and into the points.

Ferrari detail © LAT

Ferrari

Last year, Turkey was a pretty decent showing for Ferrari, with Massa taking his first Formula One win and Schumacher fighting hard, but finishing third.

But Hungary was a bit of a mixed weekend for the team. After seeing their rivals in Monaco, they knew that challenging McLaren was always going to be a struggle, so gaining a second place finish was a bonus.

Looking to improve their game in every respect, the team has been working hard at pit-stops, aiming to ensure they don't strand a driver with insufficient fuel in qualifying again.

Besides that, the team is pushing hard to get back up to the top in both the drivers' and constructors' championships, so there should be some development to the car.

They have had an edge at medium-downforce circuits recently. so it seems reasonable to look for a win this time out.

5. Felipe Massa: With a brand-new chassis under him, Massa is going to be hoping to re-assert himself over his team-mate, and particularly must be hoping to get back ahead in the qualifying comparison versus his team-mate, where his early season lead has been whittled down to a 6-5 advantage.

At the site of his first win, it is easy to see the Brazilian stepping up his game and edging his way in front of his team-mate this weekend.

6. Kimi Raikkonen: Now that the car is more to Raikkonen's liking, he seems better able to illustrate the raw speed that Ferrari were looking to tap, and his results are improving accordingly.

Massa has been a quick team-mate, but now the momentum is with the Finn, who has to be eying the top step of the podium on Sunday.

Objectives: Pole and race win.

Honda

A tough qualifying session last year saw both drivers working hard on race day, but they did get both cars in to the points.

Not so in Hungary - there, the team was genuine backmarker material on race day, with Button failing to finish and Barrichello coming in last, even beaten by a Spyker on race day.

It is a pretty dismal position for the team. The customer Super Aguri outfit has effectively made better use of last year's car than the Honda team, which reverted to it after discovering their 2007 model is fundamentally flawed.

Significant progress that should have taken place through the season to fix the underlying issues has failed to even let them maintain the gap to the frontrunners.

There is some expectation that the team will move forwards - talk is of better understanding of the current chassis and developments that are coming through shortly that should move them through the midfield.

But the long and short of it is that the car is woefully lacking performance in comparison with its peers, and even a big step forward can only be too little, too late.

That said, they are clearly going to be showing better form than last time out. The Hungarian event was all about maximum downforce and mechanical grip, so returning to the more normal downforce levels and adding some higher speed corners will be welcome!

7. Jenson Button: Although the Briton has always looked good in Turkey, without a decent car under him, it seems that Button is destined to languish at the back of the midfield this year, fending off Spykers and Super Aguris. A spot of rain would be nice...

8. Rubens Barrichello: Now leading the qualifying battle with his team-mate, Barrichello will be hoping for a decent Saturday session, leading to a good run on race day.

If all goes well in practice and the team can dial it in well enough, perhaps a top ten finish is possible.

Objectives: Get cars to Q2 and race in the midfield.

Robert Kubica, BMW Sauber © LAT

BMW Sauber

A year ago, promising practice times translated in to decent qualifying, then a disappointing race - points clearly went begging.

A year down the road, the team is delivering on the promise of that race, holding a comfortable third in the Championship and sitting thirty points clear of Renault.

Considering their position in the points standings and despite their assurance that they are working to maintain the gap to their challengers, it seems most likely that the team is concentrating only on getting their challenge together for next year.

As a result, any upgrades to the car will be the result of early plans coming to fruition and crossing over from the new projects.

9. Nick Heidfeld: Having basically dominating his team-mate this year, scoring nearly twice as many points and usually out-qualifying him, Heidfeld is having a very impressive season, and will be expecting to push the top four all the way this weekend.

10. Robert Kubica: Despite showing some of his inexperience compared to his team-mate, there is no doubt that Kubica is very quick and talented, though perhaps not as consistent as he might be.

Another solid outing would continue to improve that reputation - not to mention maintain the pressure on his team-mate!

Objectives: Get both cars well into the points.

Toyota

A year ago, the team scored a couple of points despite an engine change for Schumacher, and their drivers coming together at the opening corner - the German in particular performed well.

Coming away from Hungary, where both cars made it into the top ten in qualifying and at least ran at the pace of the midfield on Sunday, things look fairly optimistic for the weekend ahead.

The team is coming off their summer break, presumably with further developments for the car as they look to close down the gap to Williams, who share the same engine.

But it would be no surprise to discover that they are already fully focussed on the 2008 car and only bringing out new parts that happen to work with the current chassis, rather than worrying about the Grove outfit.

Recent improvements seem to give them an edge over Red Bull, so that gap should close anyway!

11. Ralf Schumacher: Very quick at this circuit last year, and with momentum after the Hungary race, the German is relatively likely to have a good weekend. If it goes well, he will make it in to the top ten in qualifying and challenge for points.

12. Jarno Trulli: Clearly quicker than Schumacher in qualifying, Trulli will be expecting to make the final session, but he will be needing to maintain that pace on race day, which seems to have been a struggle recently.

Objectives: Get both cars in to Q3 and at least one in the points.

David Coulthard © LAT

Red Bull Racing

An anonymous weekend in 2006, with a gearbox failure and a poor eleventh place finish for Red Bull.

A year later, it will be interesting to see whether the team can do anything different.

The team has been working on developing the car as the season progresses, particularly bringing improvements that help the drivers to get the most out of the chassis.

Whilst progress has been slower than anticipated, it has helped move the team from hopelessly outclassed to a point where they can compete in the midfield, and are an occasional threat for points.

After three weeks off, some further development might be available, but this weekend should basically see more of the same.

14. David Coulthard: Although qualifying remains a tough session for the Scot, it seems that his experience on race day has regularly been useful for moving the car forward and he essentially finishes as well as his team-mate.

Consequently, despite being out-qualified ten times in eleven attempts, it seems Coulthard has the same slim chance of making it in to the points.

15. Mark Webber: Seeming to get everything out of the car in qualifying, Webber is a genuine threat for making it in to the top ten on Saturday - the trick will be delivering a points finish on race day.

Objectives: Get a car in to Q3 and aim for a points finish.

Williams

A year ago, middling qualifying led the drivers to be in fifth and sixth after the start, before poor strategy left Webber to fall back to tenth. Meanwhile, Nico Rosberg retiring from fifth with a water leak - they really should have done better.

Now, they are arriving with Toyota power and looking for redress. The car is more reliable this time around and regularly quick enough to challenge for points, so that has to be the goal for this outing.

Coming off the summer break, the team is expected to have some new parts available, though they have not had a chance to do anything other than installation laps since the last race, so a getting through the Friday testing program will be critical to maximising the performance of the car.

16. Nico Rosberg: Rosberg is having a very good year, and returning to a track that seemed to suit him a year ago, so it would not be a surprise to see him qualify in the top ten and challenge for points.

17. Alex Wurz: With a rather dismal qualifying record, Wurz will do well to get close to his team-mate in qualifying.

Regardless of whether or not he does though, his race pace is pretty impressive and the Austrian is about as likely as Rosberg to finish in the points.

Objectives: Get in to Q3 and score points.

Sebastian Vettel © LAT

Toro Rosso

It was a pretty dismal showing last year, though the team looked decent in practice. They qualified poorly, then Liuzzi spun and Speed finished thirteenth.

A year later and the team has just dispatched Speed to hire Sebastian Vettel, and announced the pending arrival of Champ Car driver Sebastien Bourdais in 2008, effectively dismissing Liuzzi.

Add speculation that the owners are interested in selling part or all of their ownership of the teams, and it is clear that there is trouble at home.

It will be interesting to see what is going to be coming out of the summer break. Motivation is a key requirement for maintaining progress, so internal turmoil is not helping matters at all.

In principle, the team has similar capability to their senior outfit, but they have struggled to unlock it - it would be a surprise if that changed any time soon.

18. Vitantonio Liuzzi: With his job on the line, it is difficult to know whether Liuzzi is going to gain motivation and put on a good show in order to find another seat, or become demotivated and struggle to impress.

19. Sebastian Vettel: Having looked quick in practice for Sauber last year, Vettel must be hoping to make a positive impression at the circuit this time around.

Although his debut was impressive, time in the car has been minimal, so expectations are still relatively low - a perfect opportunity to surprise.

Objectives: Get both cars to the finish.

Spyker

Although Christijan Albers qualified sixteenth last year, he had an engine change penalty, but ran ninth for a while until crashing out on lap 46.

This was one of the team's better performances, and presumably arriving with a much revised car will be doing their confidence a lot of good.

The new car is not expected to set the world on fire - and frankly, even if it improves their performance by a second a lap, it only puts the team in to the lower midfield for performance.

The potential from the new car is going to need time to fully unlock, as the team must work to identify the best base set-ups to work from and then dial the car in to each circuit.

However, should it be possible to unlock the bulk of that potential in qualifying, it may let the drivers get off the back of the grid and at least give them a shot at racing for position.

20. Sakon Yamamoto: Having out-qualified Sato and completed 24 laps at a reasonable pace last year, the Japanese is at a circuit where he can perform, so he might put his team-mate under some pressure.

Settling into a new car and team is never easy, particularly at the back of the pack, but on the positive side, there are very little expectations upon him, so he can aim to beat them!

21. Adrian Sutil: Having disposed of one team-mate, Sutil can be expected to at least continue throwing out quick qualifying laps.

That said, what he really needs is to get the car to the finish a little more often. Quick but prone to mistakes, his career will benefit from some consistency.

Objectives: Put miles on the new chassis - get both cars to the finish.

Takuma Sato, Super Aguri © LAT

Super Aguri

Despite being off the pace last year, the team was half-way respectable on race day, with Yamamoto up to twelfth after the start.

This year, the team has been able to qualify in Q2 and then raced relatively competitively in the midfield on race day.

Reliability continues to be imperfect, and of course, being in the middle of the action, there are all too many interactions with other cars.

22. Takuma Sato: Still quick, Sato is facing some decent competition from his team-mate, which has regularly seen him coming off second best in qualifying this season.

Even if points are not in the offing, he will have to step up his game if he is to keep Davidson under control!

23. Anthony Davidson: Although he has regularly out-qualified his experienced team-mate, he has not been the man bringing home the points! The next target on his career path has to be a points finish.

Objectives: Keep the midfield honest, beat Honda.