Why Espargaro signing isn't a disaster for Alex Marquez

In a move that seemingly came from nowhere, it was revealed last week that Pol Espargaro would split from KTM after four years together and join the factory Honda team in 2020, replacing Moto2 champion Alex Marquez.

The agreement between the two parties is all but done, pending a signature and an official announcement, which cannot be made yet due to a clause in 2013 Moto2 champion Espargaro's contract with his current team.

With the coronavirus pandemic putting the 2020 season on hold, Marquez finds himself out of the senior team without having had a chance to prove himself worthy of keeping his factory ride alongside esteemed brother Marc. But while it certainly looks bad for the 24-year-old, the reality is perhaps not as worrying as it might appear.

Negotiations between Honda and Espargaro began a few weeks ago, when the team's senior management reached the conclusion that they needed to react to recent moves made in the rider market by rival factories.

For Yamaha, keeping Maverick Vinales and Fabio Quartararo on the payroll as the official line-up from 2021, while dispensing of Valentino Rossi, was a clear signal that the Japanese factory has put sentiment to one side as it tries to recover a crown last won in 2015 with Jorge Lorenzo.

At Suzuki, new contracts for both Alex Rins and Joan Mir represents continuity in a development project that last season produced two victories, both at the hands of Rins. One of them came in a spectacular head-to-head with Marc Marquez at Silverstone, a race that inflicted equal amounts of pain on Honda and the reigning world champion.

Next to get its house in order should have been Ducati and KTM. As far as Honda is concerned, the latter is not currently a direct rival but could certainly become one in the medium term. The Italians, meanwhile, have provided Honda's strongest challenge for the title in the last three seasons and have reacted by promoting Pramac's Jack Miller to the factory line-up from next season.

PLUS: Why Miller's Ducati move completes MotoGP's changing of the guard

According to Autosport's sources, Ducati was never interested in signing 28-year-old Espargaro, whose current contract with KTM is worth €1.8 million a year - reckoned to be triple the salary that the ousted Danilo Petrucci, who is now linked with KTM, picks up from Borgo Panigale.

The relationship between KTM and Honda has been strained in recent seasons, with heated exchanges between team bosses and even insinuations of foul play. All will be overshadowed however by the departure of 'Polyccio', who has been a keystone for KTM's development programme in MotoGP after joining from the Tech3 Yamaha team for 2017, and scored the Mattighofen factory's first podium at Valencia in 2018.

Espargaro is an aggressive, hard-working rider, with a riding style that, on paper, would suit the demands of the RC213V

KTM, meanwhile, has lost two of its main hopes for the present and the future in just a matter of a few days. Having grown resigned that it could do nothing to retain Espargaro, its strategy had switched to finding a formula that would keep highly-rated Moto2 rider Jorge Martin on its books, even offering the 2018 Moto3 champion the factory MotoGP ride that will become vacant in 2021.

But it has come too late, as the Spaniard has already signed for Pramac when he becomes available from 1 July.

It is not hard to imagine that the younger of the two Espargaro brothers has taken a wage cut to join HRC, in favour of riding a bike that has the potential for him to open his victory account in the premier class. Either way, the agreement rules out the likelihood of him replacing Andrea Dovizioso at Ducati, should negotiations on the Italian's new contract now stall. The bosses at Ducati do not believe that - at this moment in time - KTM wants to sign the three-time series runner-up, which in theory puts it in a stronger position as negotiations continue.

Espargaro is an aggressive, hard-working rider, with a riding style that, on paper, would suit the demands of the RC213V. He is liked by Alberto Puig, Honda's sporting director, who is playing the tune in this particular game of musical chairs.

The Catalan's arrival in the team would take some of the pressure off Marc Marquez, who single-handedly won the triple crown for HRC in 2019 as Lorenzo's highly-anticipated switch from Ducati turned into an expensive failure.

Puig has not necessarily changed his initial idea from the moment Lorenzo announced his retirement last November. Back then, the logical choice was to promote Cal Crutchlow from LCR and line Alex Marquez up alongside Takaaki Nakagami for 2020.

However, a variety of commercial commitments impeded such a move and removing the British rider from Lucio Cecchinello's team was a bad solution for all parties, not to mention Crutchlow's insinuations that he might retire at the end of 2020 when his current contract expires, which have forced Puig to cover his back.

Although Crutchlow has since reversed his stance, the 34-year-old is expected to have to look for a ride elsewhere to continue his MotoGP career.

"HRC is always thinking about the future of its structure, from the Moto3 teams to MotoGP," said Puig, after Autosport revealed Espargaro's signing. "Given the circumstances we find ourselves in, this season is not going ahead as it usually would but that doesn't stop Honda from planning the best possible future for its riders."

With Espargaro's impending arrival at HRC, the question now turns to what will happen to Alex Marquez. Logic suggests that he would move across to LCR, which in theory is a more natural fit to establish himself in the premier class.

There, the spotlight on Marquez would be much less harsh than it promises to be for the 10 or 12 races that he is likely to contend from the opposite side of the garage to his elder brother. The constant comparison with one of the greatest riders of all time and pressure that results from that would be huge and, possibly, counterproductive.

This creates one final question: wasn't there a way to complete the puzzle without pushing the younger Marquez out? The simple answer is no. Six months ago the situation dictated that there was no room for Alex in the best place for him. But now there is.

All Puig and Honda are doing is fixing things to how they should have been done in the first place.