The unique advantage Ducati must now use to win the 2022 MotoGP title

Across the last two MotoGP rounds at Misano and last weekend at Aragon, Enea Bastianini and Francesco Bagnaia have been split by just 0.038 seconds on average at the chequered flag.

Engaging in another duel to the wire at the Aragon Grand Prix, it was Bastianini who came out on top this time with a clinically executed overtake into the Turn 7 right-hander on the final lap. Bagnaia was powerless – but also wary – to do anything, and though he emerged from the final two turns right on the Gresini Ducati’s rear wheel, his streak of four-successive victories was shattered by just 0.042s.

It's a result that still helped him close to 10 points from championship leader Fabio Quartararo, who nearly had his entire season shattered in a horrible lap-one collision. Marc Marquez’s return from his fourth major right arm operation, having been absent since the end of the Italian Grand Prix, was set to have an impact on the title race. Though unintentional, the rear-end moment going through Turn 3 that led to Quartararo spearing into the Honda rider could well be the moment the Frenchman’s title defence ended.

“Sore and burned, but shame because it’s the first time I feel good in Aragon in many years and crashing in the third corner was not the best,” Quartararo – who was also involved in a scooter crash on his way back to the paddock – said on Sunday. “But I’m having tough last races, but still motivated to do more in the next races.

“I’ve never been… more than the result, I’ve always been fast but never really consistent [at Aragon]. I was super happy about my FP4, I was super consistent and fast. So, apart from the race it was a positive weekend and I’m really looking forward to going to tracks where we have not been for a long time. Japan is one of my favourite tracks, Thailand also. So I will push my maximum to make the best there.”

The reality is, the 2022 title has been slipping away from Quartararo since the Dutch Grand Prix before the summer break, which coincided with Bagnaia tapping into the rich vein of form he is enjoying now. Having been 91 points adrift of Quartararo after suffering a fourth DNF of the campaign at the German GP, Bagnaia has scored 120 points between the Dutch GP and Aragon, while Quartararo has registered just 39.

Scuffed leathers were Quartararo's takeaway from a pair of accidents at Aragon, as his title defence loses polish

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

The coming flyaway races present an unknown for the field given their absence from the calendar since the COVID-19 pandemic. But three of the four feature hard acceleration zones, where the Yamaha struggles and the Ducati excels. And all of that is immaterial anyway if Quartararo can’t qualify on the front row and run out front – the Frenchman still only tallying up one pole to his name in 2022.

But Quartararo has made a habit of outperforming his troubled Yamaha, and his rivals at points this year have failed to capitalise on his bad days.

Bagnaia noted how much of a “huge opportunity” Quartararo’s Aragon crash was to his own title hopes. That fact won’t have been lost on Ducati – who won its third-successive constructor’s title last weekend - for the remainder of the 23-lap contest, which makes its stance on team orders all the more baffling.

Prior to the summer break, Ducati sporting director Paolo Ciabatti said the marque would not employ team orders to save – at that point – its crumbling title bid. Even as recently as the San Marino GP, Ducati riders said the marque would not stand in their way if involved in a victory battle with Bagnaia – only that they must be more cautious of overtakes.

"Apart from the race it was a positive weekend and I’m really looking forward to going to tracks where we have not been for a long time. Japan is one of my favourite tracks, Thailand also" Fabio Quartararo

And following the Aragon GP, Ciabatti doubled down on Ducati's stance to Canal+: "Some people thought Ducati would give team orders, [but this result] shows that's not true. It's true that maybe we would have preferred to take back five more points, but at the moment our riders are free to race. They only have to not do anything stupid between Ducati riders and for the rest they can do what they want."

Bastianini took this approach at Aragon, but on more than one occasion the Gresini rider was squirming under braking while right behind Bagnaia. As clinical as his decisive Turn 7 pass was, it still could have very easily ended in disaster.

His fourth win of 2022 has given Bastianini an outside shot at the title, as he is just 48 points behind Quartararo now. It’s a gap he believes is insurmountable, but Marc Marquez feels Ducati shouldn’t interfere.

“I think it was a great fight,” Marquez said of the victory battle at Aragon. “And Enea is riding very good. Normally he’s the strongest one on the last laps now, not for the fight that was very strong too. But especially on the pace.

Bagnaia led Bastianini until the final lap, as Ducati plans to avoid team orders unless absolutely necessary

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

“Normally his second part of the race is really good. I mean, many people complain [that Ducati lets them race]. But Enea still has a chance to win the title. And as we see today, with Fabio… of course, I was there in that incident, but it was completely a race incident and can happen to Bagnaia or to Bastianini.”

Noting that racing incidents “can happen to Bagnaia or Bastianini” counters Marquez’s own points somewhat. Had the pair gotten involved in a tangle while battling, Bagnaia would have remained 30 points behind Quartararo and Aleix Espargaro – who finished the Aragon GP third - would have leaped ahead of the Ducati rider into second again in the standings.

Given Ducati hasn’t been this close to a riders’ title since its one and only success back in 2007 with Casey Stoner, that would have been a stupid thing to let happen simply to preserve its view on team orders.

Ducati did issue team orders in 2017 to help Andrea Dovizioso’s challenge. At Sepang and Valencia Jorge Lorenzo was given a ‘mapping 8’ dashboard message, which was code for ‘move out of the way’. On both occasions Lorenzo ignored the order. But Ducati’s hopes against Marc Marquez that year were slender, and Lorenzo adhering to those orders wouldn’t have changed much.

The situation in 2022 is much different, however. While there were six Ducatis on the grid in 2017, only the factory duo were consistently competitive. Of the eight Ducatis on the grid in 2022, six of them have scored podiums: Bagnaia and Jack Miller at the factory squad, Pramac duo Jorge Martin and Johann Zarco, Gresini’s Bastianini and VR46’s Marco Bezzecchi – the latter two on 2021-spec bikes. Seven of those eight Ducatis finished in the top 10 at Aragon.

Quartararo, by contrast, is fighting this war on his own. The top Yamaha rider at the chequered flag at Aragon was RNF stand-in Cal Crutchlow, who was 14th, while factory counterpart Franco Morbidelli was 10.4s adrift in 17th. Morbidelli is the highest ranked Yamaha rider behind Quartararo in the standings, 185 points adrift in 19th.

Ducati’s advantage of numbers is a unique one it must now start to exploit properly in the remaining five rounds. Bagnaia insists his approach in the title battle won’t change, the Italian instead continuing to focus only on himself and the race he is in to get the best out of both rider and package.

Bagnaia has a host of front-running Ducatis to protect him - Quartararo doesn't have such luxuries

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

While that will certainly help him as the championship winds down to its conclusion, it remains to be seen just how much the pressure of expectation gets to him and whether he has really learned from the errors he committed in Qatar, France and The Netherlands when he crashed while battling other riders.

But Ducati never has to let it get to this point if it assembles its armada and begins to deploy it tactically in the remaining races, ensuring Bagnaia is flanked by an impenetrable squadron of tailgunners.

Any upset in stopping its other riders from battling Bagnaia will quickly be forgotten when its 15-year wait for another MotoGP title is ended this season…

Can Bagnaia win a first Ducati MotoGP title since 2007?

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images