Should Ducati be worried about Aprilia's explosive form in MotoGP?

The Australian Grand Prix marked only the third time that Ducati did not win a Sunday race in the 2025 MotoGP season. Excluding the rain-hit French GP, that was just its second real defeat of the year. To a casual observer, this might seem like a blip, but there have been growing signs that Aprilia can now match, and even beat, the benchmark of MotoGP.

It all kicked off at Misano, where Marco Bezzecchi pushed Marc Marquez all the way to the flag, finishing just half a second adrift after a race-long duel. Two rounds later, Bezzecchi stormed to pole position by four tenths of a second, one of the largest margins seen in qualifying this year. This advantage was put down to the circuit’s quirks, but Phillip Island proved that Aprilia’s progress was no fluke. While it’s better to reserve final judgement until this weekend’s Malaysian GP, there’s no denying that the RS-GP is now a serious challenger.

Aprilia now also has two race winners who are fit and healthy, with Raul Fernandez finally delivering on the potential he showed in Moto2 into a maiden victory in Australia. Bezzecchi remains blisteringly fast and is expected to lead the marque in the final stretch of races. Of course, Aprilia still needs its big-money signing Jorge Martin to return from injury and adapt to the bike, plus Ai Ogura to regain his early-season form, but the Noale marque already looks far stronger than it did just two weeks ago in Indonesia.

Aprilia’s improved form has coincided with a mysterious drop in pace for Ducati, with Australia marking the second weekend in a row it didn’t have the fastest bike. In Indonesia, it still came away with a victory thanks to a standout ride from rookie Fermin Aldeguer, but at Phillip Island, the weaknesses were laid bare for all to see. Of course, Mandalika and Phillip Island are both peculiar tracks, but the Desmosedici is such a well-rounded bike that it was surprising to see Ducati struggle. 

To its credit, it did bounce back on Sunday as Fabio Di Giannantonio charged from 10th on the grid to finish second. But one must remember that Ducati was only the fourth-best manufacturer in the sprint race, finishing behind not only Aprilia but also KTM and Yamaha.

One issue plaguing Ducati is its overreliance on Marc Marquez. The Spaniard has elevated the marque to new heights in 2025, but his injury in Indonesia has left Borgo Panigale exposed. With Francesco Bagnaia enduring the worst run of his career, there’s no clear heir to Marquez’s throne. Bagnaia, once Ducati’s rock, has now become its weak link, and it is a problem that will only grow if the bike is no longer the class of the field.

Bagnaia has failed to score any points in three of the last four rounds

Photo by: Gold and Goose Photography / LAT Images / via Getty Images

Elsewhere within Ducati, Alex Marquez, Di Giannantonio, Fermin Aldeguer and even Franco Morbidelli have shown flashes of speed, but no one has been quite as consistent as the nine-time world champion. Even Alex Marquez has looked a step off his best in the last two rounds.

None of this would have been a problem if Marc Marquez were still racing. But with the 32-year-old ruled out of Malaysia and almost certain to miss Portugal, Ducati is facing an awkward end to the year. Having already wrapped up the 2025 title, Marquez’s only remaining objective is to be fit in time for the Valencia test, instead of returning early to put the house back in order.

For Aprilia, this is a golden opportunity and one that it is just beginning to capitalise on. If Bezzecchi can add a few more wins and Fernandez can keep joining him on the podium, that would be the perfect way for the Noale marque to close the season.

The intra-Ducati battles of the last few years have been a thrill to watch. But for the first time since 2021, MotoGP looks poised for something even better: two manufacturers going head-to-head

For Ducati, however, this would be a nightmare, even though it has all three titles in the bag already. Watching its homegrown rival steal the spotlight would fuel the perception that its 2025 dominance was more about Marquez’s brilliance than the bike. It would also deepen the mystery surrounding Bagnaia’s slump, with Ducati still insisting that nothing is wrong with the bike.

Of course, it’s a little premature to say that the Italian marque will be out of the fight in the final three races. Both GP24 and GP25 are extremely capable bikes, and all five of its remaining riders are race winners, even if they have been inconsistent. But the fact that Aprilia can now fight Ducati on equal terms is already a major shift in this year’s form book.

That alone will give Gigi Dall’Igna and company plenty to ponder for 2026. Ducati would have preferred to carry on its advantage into next season to divert all its attention to the new rules era in 2027, but it may not have that luxury if Aprilia’s threat proves genuine.

Although Ducati has no shortage of talent, most of its riders have been inconsistent this year

Photo by: Gold and Goose Photography / LAT Images / via Getty Images

As long as Marquez is fit and performing at his 2025 best, Ducati can be reasonably confident of another title, even with a slightly inferior bike. But if all four Aprilias are consistently running near the front, the rest of the Ducati stable will need to raise their game - or, in Bagnaia’s case, mount a collective effort to drag the two-time MotoGP champion out of his slump.

The intra-Ducati battles of the last few years have been a thrill to watch. But for the first time since 2021, MotoGP looks poised for something even better: two manufacturers going head-to-head for the championship. And that’s exactly what the series needs as it chases a broader audience under new ownership.

Aprilia picked up its 300th grand prix win thanks to Fernandez's triumph in Australia

Photo by: Aprilia Racing