KTM's 'Quartararo plan' comes at a cost

KTM's 2020 MotoGP rider predicament has finally been resolved. Johann Zarco's decision to cut short his two-year stay a season early followed a barren period for the rider market, but that development has allowed numerous names to crop up on the rumour radar.

Conventional wisdom dictated that Tech3 rookie Miguel Oliveira was the most logical option for KTM after such a strong campaign in 2019, with test rider Mika Kallio - racing in place of Zarco since September's Misano round - the sensible back-up option as the manufacturer looked certain to honour its agreement with Tech3.

But its decision to partner Pol Espargaro with Ajo KTM Moto2 ace Brad Binder - who had already been signed to Tech3 for next year - came as a surprise. And even more so was the announcement that Binder's fellow Moto2 runner, unknown quantity Iker Lecuona, would take his place at Tech3.

This may appear unconventional, but there is actually some method to what could be perceived as madness.

As things stand, KTM can justify its decision to promote Binder into the high-pressure surroundings of a works team, and the inexperienced Lecuona to Tech3, by highlighting Oliveira's season.

An entrenched KTM alumnus, Oliveira came close to the Moto3 title in 2015 with the Ajo team and took the Austrian manufacturer's first Moto2 victories in the final three races of its first year in the class in 2017, before mounting a title charge the following season - ultimately coming off second best to Valentino Rossi protege Francesco Bagnaia.

Two years on, KTM's steel frame in Moto2 made his adaptation process to the RC16 that bit easier this year. That is in stark contrast to Zarco, who found KTM's radical-by-modern-MotoGP-standards concept difficult to get his head around after coming from the conventional aluminium-framed Yamaha he rode in 2017-18.

Oliveira beat Zarco three times from the first 13 races of 2019, secured a top-eight finish in Austria, and outqualified him on five occasions. By the time Zarco was dismissed after Misano, Oliveira trailed him by just a point in 18th in the standings.

"One of the things, which I believe is an advantage, is that I have no means to compare my bike to other MotoGP bikes," Oliveira said earlier in the year. "I haven't ridden another one other than the KTM, so for me it is quite simple [to get used to]. For Johann, it's harder because he is used to another bike and another way of riding."

This blissful ignorance to the nuances of other MotoGP bikes, coupled with their current knowledge of the KTM chassis from Moto2, should allow both Binder (who rode the RC16 briefly in a test earlier this year) and particularly Lecuona to adapt to the bike with less difficulty.

But KTM's motivation behind this move must be examined, and it can be traced to the Petronas SRT Yamaha garage.

The desire for his team to have its own 'Quartararo moment' ultimately led Tech3 boss Herve Poncharal to tell KTM that 19-year-old Lecuona was the rider for him

Fabio Quartararo's debut season in the premier class has been nothing short of sensational, with six podiums, four pole positions, and two near-miss defeats to Marc Marquez setting him up to be a major player in the 2021 rider-market negotiations. This seemed unthinkable a year ago, when Quartararo had one Moto2 win after three years in which he had failed to deliver on the lofty promise of his CEV Junior Moto3 career.

But Sepang CEO Razlan Razali and SRT team manager Wilco Zeelenberg knew the talent that had many pegging Quartararo as the next Marquez still existed and could be extracted in the right environment. This has proven to be the case.

Binder's exceptional career scorecard had few doubting he'd be strong from the off at Tech3 in 2020, and the pressures of now becoming a factory rider shouldn't weigh too heavy on the 2016 Moto3 title winner.

Lecuona, on the other hand, has had a grand prix career more akin to Quartararo's so far. In his three full years in Moto2, he has just two podiums. However, Lecuona was the only KTM rider other than Binder to coax anything out of the troubled chassis in the early races of this season and offered him the fight of a 'luchador' over second - which Binder won - in Thailand. And all of this comes from a rider who only began circuit racing at a top level in 2016, after he had previously been successful in Supermotard.

That, and the desire for his team to have its own 'Quartararo moment', ultimately led Tech3 boss Herve Poncharal to tell KTM that 19-year-old Lecuona was the rider for him.

"Iker fits [Tech3] completely well, and if you look now at the 2019 season, what is the main [talking] point? The main point is Fabio Quartararo," Poncharal told Motogp.com.

"This is the big surprise. One year ago, a lot of people were asking themselves, 'Was it too early, was it the right decision?' Now I think the team [SRT] and Yamaha think, 'Thank God, we took the right decision.'

"I'm not saying Iker is going to do what Fabio is doing, but I have a good feeling and we need to look at young riders. We need to prepare for the future and clearly this is the most exciting part of my job - to take young riders with a lot of potential, aggression and try to grow and help them to show their true potential in MotoGP. I just love Iker; the way he rides, the way he is. This is the man we need."

But every cause has an effect, and KTM's decision to fast-track Binder to the factory team has upset Oliveira.

Through much of the Zarco saga, Oliveira was KTM's number-one choice to replace him, but it seemed that Tech3 was holding the marque to its promise of allowing it to keep hold of the Portuguese. On the Thursday of this weekend's Phillip Island round, KTM team manager Mike Leitner attempted to shed more light on the situation, and revealed that Oliveira was asked if he wanted to step up but instead had opted to remain with Tech3 aboard full factory machinery.

"The first rider we asked to replace Johann was Miguel," said Leitner. "He had the chance to come over, change places, and his answer was very clear that he preferred to stay in his [current] team, with his crew chief - he's happy there. We will give him the same bike, and from that moment we planned the other two riders."

This is not in keeping with Oliveira's version of events. He says he was led to believe that Kallio would be taking the ride and was happy for this - only to find out last week in Japan that Binder had been chosen, leaving Oliveira to feel as if he was "not worthy".

"I said, 'Well, if it's Mika, I think it's completely fine for me', because I had built a good relationship with [Tech3] and I think it doesn't make sense to make the switch," Oliveira said. "Having chosen a rookie and a guy [Binder] who is the same age as me [24] makes me feel a bit like I'm not worthy enough to be there.

Success for Binder and Lecuona would only lead KTM and Poncharal into trying to replicate this. And they probably won't be able to

"But it's their decision and I respect it, and it doesn't change any single thing in my mind on being here and doing the maximum here. I mean, if you look at the overall picture it makes sense to them, but it's only to them that it makes sense."

Poncharal moved to point out that KTM is behind Oliveira "200%", while KTM has assured Oliveira he will be on identical machinery and the same update schedule as the main factory riders - although this is something he is sceptical about, having been promised just that this year and only recently received machine parity with Espargaro and Kallio.

That, and the apparent disagreement over the exact nature of the current factory team situation, may just have edged Oliveira to the door for 2021.

His solid rookie campaign will not have gone unnoticed by the other manufacturers, not least because he's proven that he can tame arguably the most difficult bike on the grid - one he admitted earlier in the season required a Marquez style of riding to conquer. Theoretically, switching to another bike should be easier. His signature will likely be sought after by numerous suitors over the winter months.

If KTM's gamble on finding the next Quartararo pays off with Lecuona, and Binder shows the strong form expected of him, then it shouldn't be a major problem if Oliveira leaves, even if he is a source of great pride for the manufacturer after it reared him through all of its racing ranks.

But this could also lull KTM into believing itself to be MotoGP's fountain of youth. Success for Binder and Lecuona would only lead KTM and Poncharal into trying to replicate this. And they probably won't be able to.

KTM is withdrawing from the Moto2 class at the end of this season to focus on its MotoGP and Moto3 efforts, and is removing a crucial stepping stone that has allowed it to get Oliveira, Binder and Lecuona onto the premier-class grid.

Any rider from Moto2 on its radar after that will most likely cut their teeth on Kalex or Speed Up frames - both conventional aluminium designs. Bearing in mind the trouble Zarco endured on the KTM this year, and the form Quartararo has found on the Yamaha, KTM will have a hard time persuading riders it wants against moving to bikes that have historically been kinder to rookies.

KTM's desire to have its own Quartararo is understandable, but it must now tread carefully if it is to keep hold of arguably its most exciting talent and resist any temptation to recreate its experiment should it prove successful.