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Bagnaia predicts Motegi front-runners will head the field for the rest of 2024

Francesco Bagnaia, Ducati Team

Francesco Bagnaia, Ducati Team

Photo by: Dorna

Japanese Grand Prix winner Francesco Bagnaia has warned MotoGP fans not to expect much of a break in the status quo between now and the last race of the season at Valencia.

The reigning champion believes the main contenders will be the same ones that dominated the 24-lap race at Motegi on Sunday and currently occupy the first four spots in the championship standings - Pramac Ducati’s Jorge Martin, Bagnaia, his factory Ducati team-mate Enea Bastianini and Gresini Ducati’s Marc Marquez.

The double world champion’s comments came after noting the large gap behind the top four to next-best rider Franco Morbidelli at the end of the 24-lap Grand Prix. The leading quartet were covered by under five seconds, but 13.6 seconds separated fourth-placed Bastianini and Morbidelli in fifth.

“If you look at the gap between the first four and fifth, it’s amazing,” said Bagnaia, who closed his points deficit to Martin from 21 to 10 in Japan. “The first four riders had amazing pace and I think it will be like this until Valencia.

“The pace was incredible, I think we were much faster than [the last dry Grand Prix at Motegi] two years ago.”

Although Bagnaia was referring to the top four finishers in the race, it’s likely he would also include KTM’s Pedro Acosta in his assessment of who is likely to run at the front in the remaining four rounds.

Pedro Acosta, Tech3 GASGAS Factory Racing

Pedro Acosta, Tech3 GASGAS Factory Racing

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

Though Acosta is a distant sixth in the points race, the 20-year-old rookie qualified on pole in Japan and continued his recent upward trend with his most competitive weekend of the season so far. However, the Spaniard did crash out of both races after venturing beyond the limit in his efforts to beat the Ducatis.

Within this quintet, the margins remain as small as ever. Perfect weekends, like the one Bagnaia delivered in Japan, will be required to get an edge at any given Grand Prix.

“This weekend started well and we have to use it as our model for the coming ones,” said Bagnaia. “We need to follow what we did this weekend, work in a perfect way and always try to do the best possible job in the race. We were so smooth and good.

“I want to keep the championship! I have to try and recover points every time but without taking risks. We have to believe and never give up.”

Marquez added his view on how close the competition is amongst the leading handful of riders.

“If we do everything right and we are perfect we can stay with the guys at the front,” said Marquez. “But we don't have the capacity to catch them when they get away from us.

“Trying to do it [in the Grand Prix], I went long at Turn 1. Then I just started to manage Enea, who scares me a lot in the last laps!

“Let's see if we can get back to qualifying well. We haven't done it since Aragon and when you get out on the front row it changes the whole picture.”

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