The hurdles threatening Mir's early MotoGP coronation

After all the madness that has erupted throughout 2020, the fact the MotoGP title will most likely be wrapped up with a round to spare this weekend at the Valencia Grand Prix is one of the least surprising outcomes given Suzuki's Joan Mir holds a 37-point lead in the standings following on from his European GP victory breakthrough.

The permutations are numerous, but the simplest maths to follow is this: if Mir finishes on the podium, regardless of where any Alex Rins, Fabio Quartararo (who are joint-second), Maverick Vinales, Franco Morbidelli or Andrea Dovizioso end up, he will end a two-decade wait for a Suzuki.

But simply finishing on the podium won't be an easy task for Mir. Just 0.749 seconds covered the top 19 riders on the combined times at the end of Friday's running, which is typically indicative of the second round at a repeat venue - even if just the warm-up and the race last weekend were fully dry.

And Friday at the Ricardo Tormo Circuit wasn't exactly a smooth affair for Mir. He ended up 12th on the combined times having crashed at the Turn 4 right-hander in the afternoon session - a result of having to test the hard front tyre, given Saturday is set to be colder. Furthermore, Mir's second bike was not behaving optimally and he couldn't lift himself out of the provisional Q1 places.

Mir's race pace in FP2 was solid, though. Starting his second run on a four-lap old medium rear (the compound he raced to victory last week), he was immediately lapping in the mid-high 1m31s bracket. He was still able to run those lap times when the tyre had 15 tours on it, before his crash with around 10 minutes to go brought an end to his run.

Despite, this he admits he can't relax too much.

"Relaxed no, because you can't relax. These guys are super crazy, also myself," Mir said when asked by Autosport if his pace offered him comfort. "But you know, it's true that the pace with the medium tyres is really good, also with the hard front is not bad but with the medium is a bit better.

"The problem, like you saw, is that with the soft [rear] I didn't improve the laptime, I wasn't able to be strong with the second bike. In a normal scenario we could improve our laptime. I see, like you said, a lot of riders with a decent pace. I see [Franco] Morbidelli really strong, especially in FP1 and then in FP2 he was a bit similar to me. He did a great job, apart from that there are a lot of riders with similar pace. We have to continue working. Let's see if the conditions are good in FP3 and we are able to improve the laptimes. I hope yes."

Past form at double-header races has shown Mir to be one of the few to generally make big strides from week to week. But Morbidelli is much the same, having gone from fifth to a podium charge at Jerez, and sixth to a superb victory at Aragon. Finishing 11th last weekend, Morbidelli was once again Yamaha's leading light at Valencia on his 2019-spec Petronas SRT M1.

"About race pace, there are not so many Ducatis on the pace. Dovizioso yes, he is the fastest. But the others... it's not the same as the one lap" Joan Mir

Morbidelli does have a shot at this title, but he's very much a rank outsider at 45 points adrift. So all he can do on Sunday is go out and give his maximum and see what's what. It may be the cliched, PR line riders generally spout, but Morbidelli certainly looks as if he's actually able to deliver on that.

His pace, as Mir points out, was strong. Doing his work in FP2 on soft rear rubber, his first run was straight away into the 1m31.1s-1m31.3s barrier across six laps. That pace dropped a little into the 1m31.5s bracket which featured another four flying laps. Starting his third run on a soft with 16 laps on it, he managed a 1m31.873s, a 1m31.434s and a 1m31.630s. Yet to show his true one-lap pace, which a strength of the Yamaha when it's working well, Morbidelli poses a major threat.

"What I know is I feel quite a good potential and I feel good with the bike and I have quite a good feeling," Morbidelli said. "We tried different settings today and the result was encouraging with different settings, different tyres also. We're definitely in the game."

Should Mir fail to crack the top 10, a win for Morbidelli would keep the championship alive to Portugal next weekend. Those permutations also feature Andrea Dovizioso, who is also 45 points adrift of Mir. The Ducati rider didn't set the world on fire in the European GP in eighth, but his team have been able to glean something from his data and found a way to improve his confidence on the front end.

In fact, Ducati riders in general showed a good turn of speed on Friday. Four of them occupy the top six on the combined times, with Pramac's Jack Miller leading the way by 0.091s, while team-mate Francesco Bagnaia was third, Avintia's Johann Zarco was fifth and Dovizioso sixth.

"The reason why all the Ducati riders are faster than last week, I really don't know," Dovizioso offered. "The conditions are different, the track is very fast because there was no wind and the temperature was not too high. So, the situation was really good to be fast, but [it] looks like the Ducatis are a bit faster."

Miller believes he has an explanation: "The track's in really, really good condition, I think to do with the race being last weekend and no rain in between. So, from the first laps, the track was really grippy, the pace feels amazing. But I think a lot of that is to do with how the track is at the minute."

Quick Ducatis are always problematic, given the bike's brute power. Even if the rider is struggling through the turns, they can just drive out of the corners and not be matched on the straight makes them deadly to your hopes of overtaking. And Mir is very much aware of this, but won't be losing sleep just yet.

"For sure [the fact that] the Ducatis are in front means problems because on the straight they are so fast," the Suzuki rider said. "But it is only the first day. It is interesting to see the laptimes of the Ducatis, to see how fast they are in one lap. About race pace, there are not so many Ducatis on the pace. Dovizioso yes, he is the fastest. But the others... it's not the same as the one lap."

Dovizioso's mid-high 1m31s pace on the medium rear was encouraging, though he feels he needs to find two or three more tenths to get into the game. Miller more or less matched him on the same tyre, Zarco's used tyre run wasn't consistent enough to gain a true gauge of where he is at, likewise Bagnaia - but both are lacking a few tenths.

But even two Ducatis mixing at the front are enough to cause problems. Likewise, the fast Hondas, with Takaaki Nakagami also one who comes on strong on round two at the same circuit. Not a million miles from the podium last time out, Nakagami wound up second overall on Friday and in FP2 he was able to lap consistently in the mid 1m31s region on a medium rear that had already done 16 tours when he started his run. The LCR rider admitted he didn't have a great feeling on the soft tyre on a qualifying simulation, so there are still kinks in his armour to sort out on Saturday.

As far as Mir's biggest title threats go, his team-mate Rins quietly went about his business. He knows the mountain he must climb to win this championship is steep, and like Morbidelli all he can do is his best. But Rins was the only one of the top three title contenders inside the top 10 on combined times on Friday in ninth and had pace on the medium tyres comparable to that of Mir's and Morbidelli's.

Qualifying better than Mir last time out, Rins can cause real problems for the number 36 come Sunday if he keeps his current form going. A win for Rins with Mir off the podium will keep the battle raging on, while a top two result will suffice if Mir doesn't crack the top seven on Sunday.

The permutations which keep Rins in the game also apply to Quartararo, but the SRT rider doesn't appear to be in the same race as the other frontrunners right now after "one of the worst days of the season".

"What I know is I feel quite a good potential and I feel good with the bike and I have quite a good feeling. We're definitely in the game" Franco Morbidelli

The Frenchman's hopes were shattered when he crashed on lap one last weekend and hobbled to 14th. While Morbidelli took a step forward, and even Vinales was stronger, Quartararo stood still. His team threw numerous changes at his M1 and they made absolutely no difference. He will go in an "extreme" way with the bike on Saturday, but stopping short of painting a GSX-RR in Petronas colours, there doesn't appear to be much of a way back for the Frenchman right now.

"I will say it's the main problem, one of the main problems," he replied when asked by Autosport if it's too easy to get lost on the 2020 M1. "That last year, on normal days, you can adapt to the bike, but this year the margin is so small to be fighting for victories or fighting for the points and this is something that is tough to understand.

"At other races it's also difficult because everybody improves, but actually right now it doesn't improve, and normally when you make big changes like we did today, you feel it and you come into the box and say it's worse [or] I have this feeling. But today was the same and this is probably the main problem; first you get lost really easily but it's difficult to understand."

Mir has made a solid start to what could be the biggest weekend of his life. But what was evident throughout Friday's Valencia GP running was the high number of jokers in the pack who can deny Mir an early coronation on Sunday...