How real is the Honda MotoGP threat at Aragon?

MotoGP championship leader Joan Mir admitted when he jumped off of his Suzuki after last weekend's Aragon Grand Prix that the pace of the Honda scared him. Factory rookie Alex Marquez cut through him effortlessly like sharpened steel and piled the pressure on race-winning team-mate Alex Rins to end up second.

Mir somewhat backtracked on those comments on Thursday ahead of this weekend's second instalment at Aragon, noting: "This is something I said after the race, I saw Alex was coming from the back with a lot of speed and he was turning quite well. I said this thing but now I don't really agree. It's true they have a lot of potential with this bike, but not especially scared from the Honda."

Much has been made of the step forward Honda riders have taken in recent rounds. At the post-San Marino GP test at Misano, a number of updates were introduced. One of them was a new rear shock absorber from Ohlins, which Suzuki has been playing with for much of the year. The nature of Aragon suits the Honda, with Marc Marquez winning five times at the circuit in the premier class.

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The fact Aragon is a low-grip circuit plays into the hands of Honda riders too, as generally the RC213V isn't a bike possessing an abundance of grip.

But the step forward has come from those on the 2020 Honda. Takaaki Nakagami on the 2019 RC213V in LCR colours has been HRC's leading light for much of 2020. The Japanese rider has finished every race so far inside the top 10 and is currently just 29 points off Mir in the championship in fifth. In this crazy 2020 campaign, Nakagami is a legitimate threat.

Nakagami's pace in last weekend's Aragon GP was impressive, comparable to that of the leading duo of Rins and Marquez. Fifth didn't quite reflect his true potential, but it was a stark warning for those willing to take heed.

Looking at past double-header races at Jerez, Red Bull Ring and Misano, Nakagami has always come on strong in the second outing. At Jerez he went from 10th to fourth; in Austria he went from sixth to seventh, but was well on course for the podium having started second before the Styrian GP was red-flagged. And at Misano, he went from ninth to sixth.

On Friday at the Teruel GP, Nakagami filed his letter of intent. Second in FP1, the Japanese rider was fastest overall after topping the afternoon session by 0.175 seconds.

"People ask what's going on with Honda's bike because it looks like all Honda riders are quite competitive," Nakagami said, when asked by Autosport about his Friday. "But nothing secret because for us we can say it's exactly the same as last weekend. We started in FP1 with last Sunday's set-up, so nothing different and I just keep riding with the medium compound. It was good, the pace from FP1 we are so competitive, and this is really good to see that because it's really important how we can keep the pace here on Sunday. Looks [like at] this moment we are on the right way and I'm happy."

Honda was strong in general, 'surprisingly' so to Mir. Cal Crutchlow, on the 2020 LCR-run RC213V was third overall, while Marquez was sixth having topped FP1. Even Stefan Bradl was fast, having gone fourth in FP1 and missing a provisional Q2 slot by 0.001s in 11th.

Nakagami wasn't too fussed with the Ohlins rear shock last weekend but, in the warmer conditions on Friday, he had it fitted to both bikes as he found it allowed him to have greater control over the rear tyre spin on a long run.

"I think at the moment Nakagami is the one who has the better pace, probably. On paper we are quite close, but we also practiced with the tyre that normally I don't like - with the medium. So, let's see if with the soft I feel a bit better, which is normally the race tyres. And then we'll see how the pace is" Joan Mir

The LCR rider didn't put in any lengthy stints in FP2, but a couple of low-mid 1m48s on new and used medium rubber is a good indication of where his race pace is at. Though not as representative owing to the conditions, his pace on used mediums in FP1 was in the low 1m49s that he ended last Sunday's race on.

Aiding Nakagami's charge for that elusive podium this weekend is his future being secured. On Thursday Honda announced he would remain with LCR for two more years and will have factory machinery for the first time.

"I'm pretty confident, because yesterday I announced I renewed a contract and now it's like I'm completely free, I don't think about the future," he said. "I don't need to talk about the contract. So, I feel no stress and I'm just like a kid, enjoying every lap on this bike. I think it's time to show we can finish on the podium. I can say the only way is to try to do our best in any conditions and for sure the results will come on Sunday."

Mir, who was fifth fastest overall, did a lot of work on used medium rubber in FP2, with his pace very comparable at low 1m49s on a tyre with 18 laps on it in his first run in the afternoon. What will be an encouragement is the fact that pace came on the compound he doesn't prefer. He raced the soft/soft combination last weekend, and believes that will likely be the race option despite slightly warmer conditions expected for Sunday.

"I'm really surprised about the Hondas - they are really, really fast," Mir said, when asked by Autosport if he was worried at how competitive Friday looked at Aragon. "So, they've found something because all the riders - even the test rider - is super-fast. So, it will be interesting to see how those bikes will be in the race.

"I think at the moment Nakagami is the one who has the better pace, probably. On paper we are quite close, but we also practiced with the tyre that normally I don't like - with the medium. So, let's see if with the soft I feel a bit better, which is normally the race tyres. And then we'll see how the pace is."

Marquez worked with the soft rubber in the afternoon, with his pace still in the low 1m49s on a tyre that had 16 laps on it.

Marquez's day wasn't totally without incident, as he crashed at the end of FP1 while on a session-best lap. But he is continuing to show the "different Alex" that emerged from the Misano test more confident on the bike and how he approaches a weekend. After last weekend, he stressed he can't be aiming for regular podiums because it's not a "realistic" target. Even his world champion brother Marc said he shouldn't be "aiming of winning" this weekend.

That in itself, however, is quickly becoming an unrealistic target, especially if you take into consideration Crutchlow's reasoning for Honda's upturn in form.

"People saying that Honda have turned it around, I don't believe that's the case," Crutchlow, who was third-fastest on Friday at Aragon, said. "I believe that every time we get some small information, the changes are really small, whether they're electronically, whether it's the rider, whether it's this new shock... as I said, sometimes we use it, sometimes we don't.

"We are fast around this circuit at the moment but, as we saw last weekend, it was Alex who made the difference I believe and again today Alex was fast, and also Taka was really fast. And I think it's the rider who is making the difference, because at the moment if you look at the practices, it's Taka's race to lose by about 11 seconds because his FP1 pace was essentially - if he kept that gap over everyone - he'd have won the race by around 11 seconds."

The step forward Honda has made has come arguably at the wrong time for Suzuki and Yamaha. Ducati's struggles in the Aragon GP have seemingly carried over to this weekend after a miserable Friday in which no GP20 was inside the top 16, with the marque's leading title protagonist Andrea Dovizioso almost 1.5s off the pace in 18th.

Mir might not be scared of the Hondas right now but, if both Nakagami and Marquez continue their Friday form into the rest of the Teruel GP, the Suzuki rider - and the rest of the field - may soon be

Ideally, as was expected to be the case before last Sunday's race, Ducati's decline would have cleared the way for the three Yamahas and Suzuki duo to do battle. Now they'll have at least two RC213Vs to contend with. And neither of them has anything to lose.

Mir and Nakagami in some ways are on similar quests. Though Mir is emerging as a title favourite in the eyes of many because of his consistency this year, he is yet to win a grand prix and this remains his immediate focus - to do otherwise, he believes, would be a "big mistake". Nakagami is in the same boat.

While one claims he's not thinking strongly about the title, the other really isn't. Though Nakagami, as mentioned, does have a chance, there is no expectation on his shoulders. The same can be said of Marquez, whose own ambitions are simply to continue adapting to his bike.

Mir might not be scared of the Hondas right now but, if both Nakagami and Marquez continue their Friday form into the rest of the Teruel GP, the Suzuki rider - and the rest of the field - may soon be.