Is Aragon make or break for Dovizioso's MotoGP title hopes?

Such has been the madness of this 2020 MotoGP world championship that four riders come into this weekend's Aragon Grand Prix covered by just 19 points. If anything, it would be fairer to consider the first Aragon race was round 9.1 given nothing really changed last time out at a wet Le Mans.

Although the gap covering the top four of Fabio Quartararo, Joan Mir, Andrea Dovizioso and Maverick Vinales was 24 rather than 19 before the French GP, the weather conditions threw a curveball at the lead duo. Having never raced in the conditions in MotoGP, Quartararo was ninth, Mir 11th with Vinales in-between them after he was caught up in team-mate Valentino Rossi's first-lap crash.

On a day that should have opened up the championship standings, with poleman Quartararo threatening to deal big damage to Mir starting 14th, the points lead was only extended by two.

To some degree, that might be considered the 'new normal' of MotoGP 2020. But something else that has become disappointingly too familiar this year was a lacklustre Dovizioso finish.

The Ducati rider was involved in the battle for the lead and even headed the field briefly on lap 18 of 26 before being put in his place again by team-mate and eventual winner Danilo Petrucci. Dovizioso's tyres soon faded and he was lucky to hold onto fourth in the end. On a day where Dovizioso just as much as Quartararo could have inflicted serious damage, it didn't happen.

That he's still a factor in this championship battle - and someone Quartararo has often spoken about as rider to really fear - is rather fortunate. Dovizioso's experience has come to the fore and he knows more than most that you have to score the maximum you can when the race isn't going your way.

He's made no secret of his dislike for Michelin's 2020 rear tyre construction, with the extra grip that offers causing him issues in his key strong area of braking. The added grip pushes the front, while stopping the rear from sliding as much in the way the Ducati likes to get the bike turned in.

Third at the opening Spanish GP was testament to his guile, and victory in the Austrian GP was an expected result. Those results aside, he's had just one other top four finish, and that came in the wet at Le Mans. The other three main title protagonists have all scored at least three podiums, though only Quartararo is a multiple winner, while Mir is yet to break that duck in a season where Quartararo, Brad Binder, Miguel Oliveira and Franco Morbidelli have all done so.

"In the wind, the biggest thing you need is a bike that turns, and we struggle still with this issue of turning on a perfect day. The problem is amplified when you turn into the wind" Jack Miller

The problems Ducati - more so Dovizioso, with Pramac duo Jack Miller and Francesco Bagnaia not hugely affected by it - faces with the tyre makes it very hard to predict where Dovizioso will factor in the pecking order from race to race. On Thursday, much like at Le Mans, Dovizioso felt the fact braking zones at Aragon largely coming when the bike has some lean angle would help him. Friday, however, was a disaster.

No Ducati currently occupies a provisional Q2 place inside the top 10 after both practices, and to change that someone will have to risk hugely in the cold FP3 conditions on Saturday morning - conditions in which the Ducati will likely struggle. Dovizioso is the top GP20 runner in 13th, some 1.2 seconds off pacesetter Vinales and was at a loss to explain his inability to generate heat in his tyres, particularly on the right-hand side.

"I don't understand why this happens, especially in this track," Dovizioso said on Friday. "Tomorrow we will understand a bit more because the wind will be normal, and the limit will be the same. This means it's just the temperature on the tyre. But to answer for a technical reason, I really don't know."

The high wind that battered the exposed Aragon circuit was so problematic on Thursday that Aprilia's Aleix Espargaro had to abandon a bicycle ride. On a 300 horsepower Ducati, wind simply exposes the Ducati's biggest weakness of turning.

"It's just the way the bike works," Miller said of the Ducati in windy conditions. "For sure the big front fairing doesn't help, but in the wind the biggest thing you need is a bike that turns, and we struggle still with this issue of turning on a perfect day. The problem is amplified when you turn into the wind."

Even if the wind does die away, Dovizioso still faces a problem. In the "acceptable" afternoon temperatures, where the lap time gain for most from FP1 to FP2 was around two seconds, Dovizioso still couldn't get temperature into the tyres and noted his lap time loss on his FP2 time from the 2019 Aragon GP - which was run on a track 14 degrees warmer than the 2020 FP2 - was six tenths. By contrast, Vinales' 1m47.771s was just over two tenths quicker than that from 2019.

Saturday's schedule has been pushed back by an hour, but this looks unlikely to aid Dovizioso. Not least when you consider the current performance of the leading Yamaha trio, while Suzuki, Honda and KTM showed strong top 10 pace on Friday. And, even if Dovizioso is able to find a lap time gain, it's likely others will too.

Exiting Q1, should he fall into the session, is also no guarantee. He was 17th at Catalunya, which put him in the perfect position to be collected by a crashing Johann Zarco at Turn 2 on the opening lap.

Hope hasn't totally evaporated for Dovizioso. Miller is certain at least he can take a step forward if the wind dies down, while Quartararo is confident Ducati will bounce back.

"We know Ducati is always struggling with the wind, but they will come," the SRT rider said. "Last year they were there to fight. They make second and third.

"Of course, Marc [Marquez] was far away, but they had a great bike to fight for the victory. So, for sure with less wind they will be better. [It] looks like the conditions will be a little bit hotter tomorrow and Sunday with less wind, so I think they will come back and we know they have a big potential here. From my side, I hope they will not come back!"

Though Vinales didn't do a long run, both Quartararo and team-mate Morbidelli's pace on the medium rear tyre was decent. The former comfortably sat in the low 1m49s bracket, while Morbidelli threw in a couple of high 1m48s on his runs - with a 1m48.855s on a 13-lap old medium a noteworthy effort. None of the Yamahas have done a long run on soft rubber yet, which is looking to be the main race option.

If Dovizioso has any desires on winning this year's world title, relying on disaster to befall his title rivals (as it has on numerous occasions this season) simply isn't good enough

Mir's short run on a fresh soft of high 1m48s and 1m49.0s has given him a good base to work from on Saturday. If he can hook up qualifying, which he certainly seems capable of doing this weekend, there's a risk he and the Yamaha trio can check out on Sunday if they all get away well.

That's the nightmare scenario for Dovizioso. It will be crucial to get into Q2 but, even then, if there's no real improvement in grip, it's hard to predict Sunday being anything other than yet another exercise in damage limitation.

And if Dovizioso has any desires on winning this year's world title - perhaps his last chance should his looming sabbatical not end with a 2022 return - relying on disaster to befall his title rivals, as it has on numerous occasions this season, simply isn't good enough.

Bagnaia, who also struggled for tyre temperature and is currently missing rear grip, noted Aragon - which MotoGP has two goes at this year - is "too important to [not] be fast [at]; it's a very suitable track for our bike".

For Dovizioso, it could bring his championship challenge to an end.

Photos courtesy of Motorsport Images and MotoGP