Was the MotoGP French GP the disaster it seemed for the home hero?

The 2020 MotoGP French Grand Prix was already a finely poised affair ahead of lights out. Eventual race winner Danilo Petrucci said after qualifying third that he expected a 10-rider podium battle as dry pace in FP4 on Saturday was incredibly close through the field.

But the general consensus was that if poleman Fabio Quartararo could get the holeshot and deploy the blistering race pace he displayed in practice on Saturday, it would be game over. However, if the Ducatis of Petrucci and Pramac's Jack Miller starting alongside could get the jump, then it was anyone's game.

And then the rain came and washed Quartararo's hopes of a home win away.

Quartararo - along with a handful of others, including nearest title rival Joan Mir and eventual runner-up Alex Marquez - hadn't raced a MotoGP bike in the rain before. In fact, Friday's wet FP1 was the first meaningful running any of them had done in the conditions in the premier class.

In FP1, Quartararo was 1.6 seconds off the best pace - set by Aprilia's Bradley Smith - and was 1.3s behind the fastest Yamaha in the session of Maverick Vinales in sixth. He felt "really bad" with the bike and exercised caution across the day in order to minimise the risk of hurting himself when the championship was entering a crucial juncture.

Reasonably, this was the correct course of action. The weather forecast for the rest of the weekend didn't predict rain. When it arrived moments before the race was due to get underway, forcing a slight delay, Quartararo's back was against the wall.

"We risked a lot," he said after the race. "What I asked the team [to do] is make a big change on the bike and let's see how it's going, because in FP1 I was feeling really bad. And actually it was better, a better feeling.

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"I was a bit worried before the race because I never tried the setting I will be racing. The first race in the wet, first race we try this setting, I was in pole position. So, I was a little bit nervous, but it was great to see that we need to take some risk and today we went with a setting we never tried on the wet and [it] was not so bad."

After an early battle with KTM's Pol Espargaro over fourth, Quartararo quickly dropped down the order, and by lap six was wobbling around in 11th. The Petronas SRT rider struggled in the opening stages to get heat into his rear soft rain tyre, noting: "Our rear grip came eight or nine laps into the race, and in the end it was so difficult.

"I think this is our main problem in these conditions, we are struggling a lot to warm up the rear tyre on the edge and the exit. So, that's why the beginning of the race was terrible for us."

But even as grip came back to him, his forward momentum to ninth was only a result of crashes ahead of him and his mid 1m44s pace was slower than that of the fast-approaching Vinales and Mir, who were lapping in the low 1m44s, high 1m43s bracket having been forced into recovery rides when they were caught up in Valentino Rossi's race-ending crash on the opening lap.

"In these conditions, we are struggling a lot to warm up the rear tyre on the edge and the exit. So, that's why the beginning of the race was terrible for us" Fabio Quartararo

And at the front, Andrea Dovizioso was threatening to take a massive bite out of Quartararo's lead in the championship as he fought for the win with Petrucci. This was a race, then, all about stemming the bleeding as much as possible. And it offered another glimpse into the maturity Quartararo has quickly developed in his short MotoGP career.

That was evident on Friday when he noted his cautious approach was to avoid "stupid mistakes" on a day when "you can lose the championship really easy". Even when he felt it was too early to be thinking about the championship at round three at Brno, as grip woes forced him to preserve a seventh-place finish, he was very clearly aware that winning the war by way of losing some battles is necessary.

When he crashed out of the San Marino GP through over-eagerness having spent too long behind a struggling Vinales, he vowed he'd learn from his error. And he did, putting his SRT M1 on the podium at the second Misano race (though was demoted to fourth for a track limits violation), won at Catalunya and kept his head in a tricky Le Mans race to salvage ninth to keep his championship lead intact. And this hasn't gone unnoticed on the grid.

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"Today he [Fabio] did a very good job because in these conditions looks like with the Yamaha we suffer," Rossi said on Sunday. "So, he takes some points, he stayed quiet, he didn't make any mistakes. He did a good job, very important for his championship.

"I think also the victory in Barcelona was his best victory because was not in easy the conditions. So, I think he will be strong to the end of the year."

The agents of fortune did deal him some luck, as Petrucci, Alex Marquez and Pol Espargaro - as well as some late tyre wear - ensured Dovizioso's take from the race was 13 points and his gap to Quartararo only shrinking to 18 from 24.

"I looked at the screen and I see a red guy that won the race, and I say 'oh, it's Dovi that won today, so he's getting way closer'," he admitted. "But then I look and it was Petrucci, and I say 'Oh, this is good'. Then I saw second was Alex, third was Pol.

"I was angry but happy because for our first race in the wet it could have been worse and we're still leading the championship. So, we can say it's really a strange year and I'm happy to still be leading that championship."

Come the final lap, though, grabbing ninth was anything but luck. Mir effortlessly jammed his Suzuki up the inside of Quartararo at the Garage Vert right-handers. It was here, he claims, when he finally thought about the championship. He came back through at the following Chemin aux Boeufs to take ninth, while Vinales found his way into 10th. It may have only been for a difference of two points to open Quartararo's lead to 10, but the significance of the move wasn't lost on the Frenchman.

"I think that it's the first time in the race I'm thinking about the championship," Quartararo said of his battle with Mir. "When Joan overtook me, I said 'no way, I will not finish without trying something'.

"I braked so hard in Turn 9, I overtook him, pushed him a little bit wide but I was also wide because I was over the limit. That fight for the ninth position was like a fight for the victory.

"I think it was quite fun and everyone gave his 100% even if they say they don't want to win this championship, everyone wants to win it. So, was quite fun despite that I would prefer to finish in the front. But this one was quite a great overtake."

Mir battled similar issues to Quartararo in that he couldn't get heat into his rear tyre quick enough, which meant - after being forced to run through the Dunlop chicane as a result of Rossi's crash - he was as low as 19th at one stage. That Quartararo and Vinales had similarly poor races means the championship picture hasn't really changed much since Catalunya, with 19 points the spread across the top four.

The Suzuki rider said one bad race "is allowed". But even without the rain, he stood to lose at Le Mans. The colder temperatures worked against Suzuki, with Mir only 14th in the dry qualifying and team-mate Alex Rins 16th.

"Top five and he takes a victory would be more of a difference in points, so it was okay like this. To make one bad race is allowed, but what we can't do is repeat this performance in Aragon" Joan Mir

Rins did come through to run second before crashing on lap 20 in the wet, but had it been dry Mir is aware how big the damage could have been to his title hopes. And with the next four races at Aragon and Valencia expected to be run in colder temperatures, Mir can ill-afford to squander chances to kick Quartararo when he's down, as was the case at Le Mans.

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"It was ok because in dry conditions he [Quartararo] had something more than the other people, so probably he could have had the chance of victory," Mir said when asked by Autosport if he felt lucky to only lose two points to Quartararo.

"I was not one of the fastest in dry conditions to fight for the victory. So, probably we will be able to improve our 11th position for sure and fighting for the top five. But at the end, top five and he takes a victory would be more of a difference in points, so it was okay like this. To make one bad race is allowed, but what we can't do is repeat this performance in Aragon."

Vinales felt comfortable on his M1 and believes he could have fought further up the front had he qualified better than fifth and not got caught up in Rossi's crash. However, that theory doesn't quite stack up when you consider he tried his start without electronic aids, having done so successfully in practice, and it predictably went awry.

In a race where he could "take back 10 points" on the championship leader, yet another oddity blighted his Sunday in 2020. The fact he's still in championship contention, with the greatest of respect, appears to be nothing more than luck at the moment.

"I don't think this race will change anything in the championship because we only lose one point compared to the championship leader," Vinales said. "But also, it was a good opportunity to take back 10 points.

"But it is what it is, we need to face it like this. This weekend I tried a totally different way to start. I tried to start without electronics. In practice it worked so good because I can feel my bike and I can do a really precise start. But then on the grid, it was quite complicated to do it without electronics. The next race we will try to be better."

In hindsight it would be easy to question Quartararo's reluctance to push over the limit in the wet FP1 to understand the conditions better. He believes his problems in the race would have persisted regardless.

Nevertheless, the races when you have to simply bank points when fate conspires against you are the ones which often show the true measure of a champion. Therefore, arguably his lacklustre French GP is where Quartararo firmly assumed favourite status in the 2020 title race.