How a Rossi MotoGP protege can do what he couldn't at Ducati

Ducati's long-awaited announcement of its full works line-up for the 2021 season finally arrived on Wednesday morning after the Italian marque delayed it from last weekend to "leave the stage clear" for Yamaha, Petronas SRT and Valentino Rossi to make public their 2021 MotoGP plans.

But it came as no surprise that Ducati had selected Francesco Bagnaia to step up to its works squad next year alongside current Pramac team-mate Jack Miller, taking the place of the outgoing Andrea Dovizioso.

With that, it feels very much like the changing of the guard at Ducati. Dovizioso's efforts on the Desmosedici and his ability to help develop it from paddock joke to a championship-challenging weapon can never be understated.

From the misery of a podiumless 2013, Dovizioso saw to it that Ducati could be a race winner again when MotoGP's switch to spec electronics came in for 2016. And, although it was Andrea Iannone who actually ended Ducati's drought - dating back to Casey Stoner's Phillip Island win in 2010 - when he took his sole premier class victory at the Red Bull Ring in 2016, Dovizioso vindicated Ducati's decision to retain him over Iannone when Jorge Lorenzo arrived the following year by mounting its first serious title charge since Stoner's 2007 title run.

But the decline in results, going from six wins in 2017 to four in 2018 and just two last year - while slipping from 37 points down on Marc Marquez in the standings to 76 and 151 - coincided with a decline in the relationship between rider and team, with confidence in each other seemingly running out.

Whether Dovizioso was ever high priority for Ducati in 2021 negotiations won't be revealed until his contract expires at the end of the year and he is free to talk. That no deal was allegedly ever tabled before he made the decision to walk away suggests he probably wasn't.

Ducati had been shopping around long before that, though. Its main targets for 2021 were Maverick Vinales, Fabio Quartararo and Joan Mir - but Vinales extended his Yamaha stay while the latter duo were quickly snapped up by Yamaha and Suzuki, respectively.

Bringing Miller up from Pramac was a step in the right direction, moving more towards youth. But Ducati needed more of that. Miller is hardly ancient at 25 years old, but his experience in MotoGP and on the Ducati should arguably have yielded more consistent podium challenges than the seven he has scored since 2018.

"Pecco is riding very well, because he's able with his style to use the Ducati in the perfect way. He is able to fix some problems the Ducati has - [it] is a high performance bike but is not easy to ride" Valentino Rossi

While it was understandable that Ducati would consider Johann Zarco to step up from Avintia, and even bring Lorenzo back into the fold, it was clear from the start of the delayed 2020 season that Bagnaia was its best bet.

PLUS: Why Dovizioso's MotoGP replacement shouldn't be Lorenzo

Signed to the Italian manufacturer in 2018 even before he'd made his title-winning run in Moto2 with mentor Valentino Rossi's team, Ducati already thought highly of Bagnaia. A largely difficult debut season, punctuated by numerous crashes and troubles in adapting his braking style to suit the Ducati, meant he had just one top five appearance. Rightfully, Ducati at the start of this year said it wanted to see genuine progress from Bagnaia before any decision on his future was made.

That progress was immediate. Qualifying on the front row for round two at Jerez, he was on course for his first podium before his GP20 broke. Given team-mate Miller managed two podiums in Austria, two big opportunities were snatched away from Bagnaia when he broke his leg in a crash during Czech GP practice.

But he returned at the San Marino GP to finish second, and was set to win the following Misano round before a late crash. Even his turnaround from a lowly 14th in qualifying at Catalunya to finish sixth was a commendable result. That Bagnaia's deal runs to 2022 while Miller's is only a 1+1 shows just how much faith the young Italian has restored in Ducati.

"Pecco is riding very well, because he's able with his style to use the Ducati in the perfect way," Rossi said when asked by Autosport at Misano about Bagnaia's riding. "He is able to fix some problems the Ducati has. But [he is also] using the maximum of some advantages Ducati has, like the engine and acceleration. Ducati is a high performance bike but is not easy to ride."

The change in construction in Michelin's rear tyres for 2020 has thrown a curveball at Ducati. Dovizioso hates the tyre, as its high-grip construction has robbed him of his ability to brake late and set the bike up for the corners in the way he used to. Team-mate Danilo Petrucci - who is heading to KTM next year - has had the same issues, noting at Catalunya that the bike is hugely sensitive to engine braking changes now. By contrast, the Pramac riders have had far fewer issues with the tyre, Bagnaia in particular.

Having struggled with braking last year, this has now become Bagnaia's strength. He's able to apply much less pressure when braking but enough to get the bike stopped so he can carry corner speed with the front end. This new rear tyre also offers a lot of edge grip, and Bagnaia's natural style of really hanging off the bike will almost certainly allow him to take advantage - and thus minimise the turning issues the Ducati is famed for.

"Pecco is able to brake later with less pressure and stop the bike," Dovizioso explained when asked what he could see in the data comparing himself and Bagnaia. "This is something difficult to do because if you are slow and you have to be better, normally you push more, you brake more aggressive or you use more intensity. What my team requests to me is completely opposite, but it's so difficult to recreate that [what Bagnaia does], especially because I never braked in that way.

"But when I try I don't have the feeling to stop the bike. So, normally every Ducati rider is going to brake harder, and when you do that it doesn't work. And this is the explanation and the reason why it's so difficult to do because you have to be faster but in the way you have to approach the brake and the corner is very smooth. So, it's very difficult to do."

With coronavirus-induced cost-saving measures meaning not a lot is likely to change next year, Ducati can reasonably expect a Bagnaia capable of mounting a title charge. But the groundwork for this was laid almost a decade earlier.

Bagnaia signing to the factory Ducati squad comes 10 years after mentor Rossi did the same back in mid-2010, penning a two-year deal for 2011 and 2012. It was, as has been greatly documented, a total disaster. Rossi managed just one podium all season in 2011 and was seventh in the championship, marking his worst standings position in the premier class (he would repeat it last year).

Year two was only marginally better, with a switch from the unconventional carbon fibre chassis Ducati had been using to the more conventional aluminium frame yielding two rostrum appearances. But that was the end of the relationship, the great Italian dream of a Rossi/Ducati championship gone.

With coronavirus-induced cost-saving measures meaning not a lot is likely to change next year, Ducati can reasonably expect a Bagnaia capable of mounting a title charge

This proved pivotal in Ducati turning things around come the middle of the last decade. A large part of why Rossi was unsuccessful was an unwillingness from Ducati's race department to work coherently with Rossi's famed crew, headed by ace crew chief Jeremy Burgess. When Ducati brought in ex-Aprilia man Gigi Dall'Igna as general manager for 2014, he whipped the race department into shape, teaching it to work smarter. And of course, two years after that, Ducati would start winning again in MotoGP.

At the same time Dall'Igna started whipping Ducati into shape in 2014, Rossi set up his VR46 Academy, providing Bagnaia - among many other Italian firecrackers, including Franco Morbidelli - with the perfect surroundings to grow as a rider.

Bagnaia has now grown into a truly top MotoGP rider, while Ducati is once again capable of fighting for the championship in the premier class. And in many ways, both of those situations - directly and indirectly - are because of Rossi...