Why Marquez isn't Vinales' main threat in MotoGP this year

The performance in last Sunday's Spanish GP that ensured Fabio Quartararo won his first race in MotoGP's premier class, becoming the first Frenchman to do so since Regis Laconi in 1999, was the culmination of a stratospheric rise since his premier-class debut last season.

'El Diablo' adapted to the Yamaha almost instantly at the start of 2019, posting a first pole position as early as the fourth round at Jerez, and a glance at the numbers he has posted since then gives little to suggest that the level of competition and quality of the world's elite riders has fazed him in the slightest.

He set the fastest lap on his MotoGP debut in Qatar after starting from the pitlane - instead of the fifth place he qualified in - but his race performances were inconsistent, with just 31 points to show from the first six races. Admittedly, that wasn't helped by the gearbox problem that forced him out of the Spanish GP while fighting for a podium, but Quartararo has tightened up in that respect and since then he has continued to grow.

Despite having to wait until 2020 to open his victory account, the 21-year-old from Nice was the most consistent Yamaha rider during the final part of the 2019 season, even if he did end up finishing behind Maverick Vinales in the championship.

Despite competing on a prototype bike that was technically one step behind the other three Yamahas on the grid - including SRT team-mate Franco Morbidelli - Quartararo registered a total of 100 points in the final seven rounds, whilst Vinales picked up 93. During that period he also scored four podiums - all second places - whilst the Spaniard claimed a win and two third places.

The pair had the same number of crashes (six) over the course of the nineteen-round championship, which is interesting when you compare it to the other rookies: Pecco Bagnaia crashed fourteen times, Joan Mir twelve (missing two rounds through injury) and Miguel Oliveira nine.

The championship title is the target now for Vinales, who remains Yamaha's number one rider for the time being, especially with Valentino Rossi deep in a podium drought that now stands at seventeen races since the US Grand Prix last season.

The favourite in the chase for the title ought to be Marc Marquez - who has been passed fit to return just days after undergoing surgery on his broken right arm on Tuesday - and the man most likely to overthrow him ought, in theory, to be Vinales, who will logically be the focus of Yamaha's attempt to recover a title they last won in 2015.

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However, the sheer speed and reliability demonstrated by Quartararo at Jerez is evidence enough to argue that it should be the youngster that Yamaha puts its weight behind, even from within a satellite team. At the age of 21, Quartararo is the early leader of what will be the shortest championship in years and the fact he will have full support from Yamaha, having already signed to join the factory team in 2021, makes him just as worthy a candidate to the title as Vinales or Rossi.

Vinales has the chance to put things right this weekend but in the likely absence of the defending champion, another defeat to his future team-mate will start to compromise his position as Yamaha's number one in MotoGP

That is a dangerous prospect for the Spaniard. Last Sunday at Jerez, Quartararo took full advantage of Marquez's crash and Vinales' gamble on a soft tyre that only he and Rossi - who didn't even make the finish - used.

Vinales has the chance to put things right this weekend but another defeat to his future team-mate will start to compromise his position as Yamaha's number one in MotoGP.

The effects could be damaging for a rider who was signed from Suzuki in 2017 to take the fight to Honda, yet it has been Ducati and Dovizioso that have been the closest challenger to Marquez for the last three seasons.

During his earliest days as a Yamaha rider, Vinales realised how much influence Rossi had within the factory team. Now that its global ambassador has finally been nudged to one side to make way for the future, Vinales is in danger of the baton being passed over his head.

"I am very happy with Fabio's win, which is a very good sign for the future given that he will be joining the factory team," said Yamaha Motor Racing Managing Director Lin Jarvis.

Given the choice, it would be probably less damaging to Vinales if Marquez were to win his seventh title rather than Quartararo claim his first, or even finish ahead of him in the championship.

But his future team-mate will unquestionably be determined to mix up the status quo before his arrival in the factory line-up, which in theory should focus more on Vinales. As Quartararo told Autosport over the winter: "I'm not going to say that being the top Yamaha at the end of the season isn't important, because for a satellite rider to finish ahead of two factory riders is always something nice. It is normal that I am motivated by that."

As Rossi drifts further from the MotoGP heavyweight scene, the battle for the centre of the ring at Yamaha in the medium and long term will be a thirteen-round scrap between two men. The first round went to the young challenger, so when the bell rings for round two at Jerez on Friday it will be interesting to see how his opponent reacts.