How MotoGP can solve its Gordian Knot calendar problem

At the time of writing, MotoGP has had nine - with an extension to the ban of mass gatherings in the Netherlands expected to bring that figure to 10 by the end of April - races cancelled or postponed by the coronavirus, as lockdowns and containment measures are extended across the globe.

In that time, MotoGP promoters Dorna Sports and the FIM have conducted many an interview, mooting ideas under consideration to try and get some semblance of a season underway. Last month, both parties hoped all 19 remaining races (Qatar has been cancelled for good this year) could still be squeezed in, with initial calendar updates reflecting this. Two-race weekends and extending the year into January were also touted.

But the narrative quickly changed. Dorna ruled out two-race weekends and running into 2021, with Dorna CEO Carmelo Ezpeleta admitting he'd be "delighted" with a 10-race calendar this year and confirming the minimum of 13 races contractually required to declare a World Championship would not apply in such exceptional circumstances.

With early December reasonably the absolute maximum cut-off point to be able to run races this year, 10 races doesn't seem like such an ambitious plan, but the reality is different.

Ducati believes finding 10 countries to host a race this year will be difficult, and suggested a fairly radical-by-modern-world-championship standards - but extremely sensible - alternative.

"We believe that it will not be easy to find 10 countries where [MotoGP] is allowed to run under more or less normal conditions," Paolo Ciabatti told Autosport. "A possible solution would be to try and find five, for example, and contest two grands prix there in 10 days.

"For example, if there comes a time when we can go to Sepang - to name a circuit - maybe we could stay there for 10 days and run two consecutive weekends."

Forget about going to Sepang. Dorna foots a big bill in covering freight costs for MotoGP, and given it is pumping €9.075 million in financial aid to the paddock over the next three months - and possibly more in the months after that should the delays continue - while not generating much in the way of income right now, flyaways are likely off the table for this year.

From the 19 remaining races, that's six possible hosts scrubbed out based on the above logic, leaving 13 circuits in Europe, where the championship will likely be based this season.

However, things don't get easier, as another nine venues - for the sake of this feature, which is very much a look at what might be possible based on current affairs - face fairly unviable futures.

The Minister for Labour in Spain - one of the hardest hit countries in Europe - Yolanda Diaz, recently stated that "Spain will resume tourist activities if there is a guarantee of extraordinarily safe conditions for both our citizens and our tourists."

Though it faces numerous challenges still, Ducati's idea of five circuits hosting two races each now looks like the most viable option

Unless new treatments emerge fairly quickly and can be rolled out worldwide to mitigate the most serious effects of COVID-19, or a vaccine - which is still more than likely at least a year away, though clinical trials are currently underway - this pretty much rules out Jerez, Catalunya, Aragon and Valencia as venues for 2020.

What a potential tourism ban for the rest of the year will mean for the large proportion of Spanish personnel who work in MotoGP in terms of travelling to and from races remains to be seen. Ideally, by the time of August - the most likely season start point - the peak of the virus worldwide will have subsided and the healthcare system will be less strained, meaning tests can be more widely freed up for those travelling under special circumstances.

Italian GP venue Mugello and San Marino GP host Misano can probably be ruled out too. Similar to Spain, Italy will not want to risk further waves of coronavirus by allowing many people into its country, especially after the hammering it has taken these past weeks.

Silverstone appears unlikely. Though CEO Stuart Pringle is open to hosting multiple F1 races without fans and even running the circuit in reverse (only Knockhill is licensed to do this in Europe and it's an impossibility for MotoGP on safety grounds at any track anyway), it's hard to imagine the already cash-strapped Silverstone running two world championship events without the income from spectators.

The return of the Finnish GP will also be put on hold. In an interview with Marca, Ezpeleta says the circuit is yet to be granted approval, and homologation of a track in the current climate will almost be impossible. With the Le Mans 24 Hours for both cars and bikes delayed to September, MotoGP would also be better off avoiding the scheduling headache this could present in trying to find room for a French round.

Though it faces numerous challenges still, Ducati's idea of five circuits hosting two races each now looks like the most viable option.

Ezpeleta says his ideal scenario is for the season to start in the Czech Republic on 9 August. As of 15 April, the Czech government declared it had gotten COVID-19 "under control", with extreme and rapid control measures ensuring the outbreak has so far only killed 161 people and infected little over 6000. The country will now gradually start reopening, though gatherings of more than 50 people won't be allowed for a while yet - and, for the sake of this feature, all races will be staged behind closed doors.

Assuming the rule of not having two grands prix in the same country applies in this unusual time, the opening round would remain the Czech GP, while the second could be the Moravian GP, named after the region in which Brno is situated.

The Austrian GP, scheduled for August 16, is the logical venue for the next two rounds, with the second race designated the European GP.

Austria is now relaxing some of its social distancing measures and the Red Bull Ring has previously expressed its willingness to host its F1 race behind closed doors. The government also won't stand in the way of that - not least as broadcasting of a major sporting event from Austria will be, in the eyes of the government, proof its measures were the best.

Germany could be the host of rounds five and six. Germany is also slowly reopening its country having, like the Czech Republic and Austria, largely controlled the COVID-19 outbreak through sensible and swift measures. Mass gatherings are still banned until the end of August, but there is a quirk with the Sachsenring that may actually mean a race behind closed doors would be less impactful than at other circuits.

The Sachsenring is only permitted 10 days of racing a year, because it's not actually a permanent race circuit. It comprises of part of the road safety centre and part of the old Sachsenring road course - former scene of the East German GP. The test centre owns Turns 1-11, and the government owns Turns 11-1. Much of the surrounding grandstands are on private land, thus the circuit makes very little money out of the race. So, an event without spectators likely wouldn't make a huge difference.

With no other racing likely at the circuit this year, MotoGP could quite easily eat up six of those days for the German GP, followed by the Saxony GP.

KTM boss Pit Beirer told Speedweek that four mechanics per rider would be enough to operate. With some 3000 people making up the MotoGP paddock, cutting numbers drastically is a necessity

The Dutch TT is arguably MotoGP's flagship event, given the event's history in grand prix racing. It's also one of the best attended. Dorna is keen for it to be on its repackaged calendar if possible, and former Dutch GP promoter Jos Vaessen admitted the financial security of the circuit would mean a lost year wouldn't have a worrying impact.

Reasonably, then, hosting two races (the Dutch GP and Assen TT) without fans would be possible come September/October - though, it depends on the state of the virus in the Netherlands, which has come in for criticism for its approach to the crisis.

The final round could end up at a wildcard circuit. The Algarve circuit in Portugal holds FIM Grade A status - which is required to host MotoGP - and was recently awarded FIA Grade 1 status. Algarve is expected to come onto the calendar in the coming years - possibly alternating with Valencia as the finale - and is currently MotoGP's official reserve circuit.

Portugal has experienced a low death rate from COVID-19 in comparison to neighbouring Spain, so by September/October time the situation will hopefully have improved to such a point where it has eased lockdown restrictions and running races will be fine. A Portuguese GP - the first since 2012 - and the Algarve GP would host rounds nine and 10 to bring MotoGP's oddest season to a close.

The above is very much a best-case scenario and represents a fairly easy trek around Europe for teams. Of course, many hurdles lay ahead before anything resembling a season is possible - not least the contract situations with each circuit and the logistics of organising a force of marshals to allow races to be run around current social distancing measures.

But small steps are at least being taken to try and get things off the ground.

The international race teams' association (IRTA) recently sent out a letter to all teams requesting exact minimum numbers they would need to go racing, with the likes of PR, hospitality, guests and even some management deemed non-essential. KTM boss Pit Beirer told Speedweek that four mechanics per rider would be enough to operate. With some 3000 people making up the MotoGP paddock, cutting numbers drastically is a necessity.

Cancelling the season outright is still a real possibility, and one which Dorna itself admits has to be "contemplated". Social media is awash with similar suggestions from fans. Despite being massively unhelpful to those whose livelihoods depend on MotoGP, and who are already stressed as it is, it's also foolish to think it would be so simple to just can the whole thing.

Teams generate income from racing and from sponsorship, with the latter only coming to them if there is racing. But there are also manufacturers who subsidise racing through road bike sales, which is something that has virtually ground to a halt. In that case, cancelling the entire championship will have massive, damaging repercussions. Any chance to avoid that possibility has to be explored.

And in such times of horror and misery, if there's a chance to offer a world stuck in isolation some racing to bring a small bit of joy, it must be taken...