Is Palou too much of a big fish in a small pond after fourth IndyCar title?

He's done it again, to the surprise of nobody.

After completing an inevitable cruise to the IndyCar title with two rounds to spare at Portland, Alex Palou now joins the pantheon of stars who have claimed four top-level American open-wheel championships: he now stands as an equal to Mario Andretti, Dario Franchitti, and Sebastien Bourdais (assuming we can include post-split-era drivers in said pantheon) on titles.

Like Franchitti, Palou has scooped three championship wins in a row. Versus his first title in 2021, Palou's opening gambit to his current hat-trick in 2023 was defined by his much more dominant streak behind the wheel, perhaps indicative of a renewed focus after throwing his lot in with Chip Ganassi Racing following a protracted contractual battle with Ganassi and Arrow McLaren. Palou's head had been turned over 2022 by the prospect of greener pastures with a seat at Zak Brown's outfit, with a potential path to F1 in the offing.

But the Spaniard sensed that no concrete opportunities were going to arrive, as McLaren's F1 team had locked down Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri for the long term. And, if Ganassi was winning races with more regularity than McLaren, why would Palou switch? After initially reneging on his Ganassi deal, he reneged in the other direction to stay with Chip's squad - taking his future into his own hands.

Perhaps Palou knew his value, and 2025 has demonstrated it. While there was the semblance of competition from Colton Herta over 2024's title run-in, Palou has had 2025 his own way. Winning five of the opening six races hadn't just built the foundations for a fourth IndyCar title, but almost the entire house; it simply needed to be maintained once Palou completed his long-awaited dream of victory at the Indy 500.

At this juncture, Palou was already 112 points clear of Pato O'Ward once the milk had dried at the Brickyard. Had David Malukas not dumped Palou into the wall at Detroit, or had Palou's strategy shaken out more fortuitously in Toronto, then the 2025 deed might have been done even sooner. Ifs and buts, yet there's a parallel where the Catalan left the Laguna Seca round with the title cheque already tucked into his top pocket.

Five wins from the opening six rounds, including a maiden victory at the Indy 500, meant Palou's path to a fourth title was already set

Photo by: Michael L. Levitt / Motorsport Images via Getty Images

This all rather begs the question: is Palou too good for IndyCar? Would he be better off getting on the phone to Graeme Lowdon and putting his hat in the ring for a Cadillac F1 seat?

The answers are as follows: possibly yes, and probably not.

Let's start with the second question first. Palou occupies the niche that every driver dreams of in their formative years: he races in a championship where, for any given day, he knows that there's a pretty good chance he'll win. He's 28, so he's at the absolute peak of his powers - and in theory, he's easily got another 10-15 years ahead of him in the series.

For a driver in his standing, the only reason he'd ever give that up was for a primo-creamo top F1 seat, or a seat with a clear glide-path to the top. When one considers the big-name moves over the past 30 years, Jacques Villeneuve did it to join a top-level, Williams team, Alessandro Zanardi and Juan Pablo Montoya made the same moves, albeit for a team on the wane (and with completely differing fortunes), and Sebastien Bourdais went from the dying ChampCar series to partner Sebastian Vettel at an improving Toro Rosso. Perhaps one could also include Cristiano da Matta, given Toyota was hurling endless riches at its disappointing F1 team in the early 2000s...

As Palou commented in 2023 about his McLaren U-turn, it was the lack of a clear roadmap towards F1 that forced him to return to his adopted home in America, and thus cannot have too many regrets

Irrespective of the superlicence issue that eventually counted him out, would Colton Herta have even entertained the notion of an F1 seat with a lower-midfield team, had it not been linked to Red Bull? Possibly not, although his fluctuating fortunes in recent years have largely kept him free of further F1-themed speculation.

Palou may well ponder the sliding doors moments that have so far kept him out of F1, beyond cursory practice sessions and TPC testing for McLaren. But as he commented in 2023 about his McLaren U-turn, it was the lack of a clear roadmap towards F1 that forced him to return to his adopted home in America, and thus cannot have too many regrets. There are those who might suggest that, had F1 failed, he could always go back - but how long does it take a driver to re-adapt to a distinctly different category? It's never guaranteed that a driver can return to a former stomping ground with quite the same verve.

And if you're happy where you are, why change? Some might pine for a new challenge, others feel that they've had quite enough of them and want to settle in a comfortable environment.

Palou and his young family have settled into the IndyCar lifestyle - a place were he can find success rather than the risks of elsewhere

Photo by: Penske Entertainment

It's a nice thought, but that won't stop this writer from concluding that there's a very clear discrepancy between Palou and the rest, and that the Spaniard could excel in other categories if he so wished. While it might make IndyCar a bit less of a foregone conclusion, it would overall hurt the series' credibility somewhat.

Few teams match Ganassi for consistency. While Team Penske used to be its equal, declining performance and its lurching from controversy to controversy leaves Roger's stable on course for surely its worst performance in years - Will Power sits sixth in the driver's championship as the leading Penske driver. Andretti remains, as ever, distinctly hit or miss; it operates at the level where its drivers can reel moments of sheer magic, and then capitulate to a single-digit score in the following race on sheer performance.

McLaren is slowly proving to be a match for Ganassi, but there's still a question of repeatability. And, while O'Ward is a brilliantly quick driver with the deftness of car control needed to keep a big, heavy single-seater in check over bumpy road courses, you suspect he's not quite on Palou's tier. If only both could measure up against each other in the same team...

The staidness in the top seats also appears to be changing slightly, as Power's seat at Penske is said to be not completely safe. The 44-year-old Australian can still turn on the tap when needed, but his peaks have become fewer and further between; it must be alarming, then, that both Scott McLaughlin and Josef Newgarden have endured rather miserable seasons and have paled versus the two-time champion. Penske looks like a team in need of a refresh; a couple of years ago, one might have suggested Newgarden was the only other driver consistently capable of dethroning Palou, but his star has faded like a cheap set of curtains over 2025.

As for Palou's team-mate: Scott Dixon is one of IndyCar's all-time greats, but he's also past his prime. Sure, he can still put his feather-footed fuel-saving strategies into action, as demonstrated by his win over Palou at Mid-Ohio, but it might be too much to bet on him putting championship-winning season together - unless his Ganassi stablemate falls at multiple hurdles.

The stage isn't quite set for Palou dominance over the next few years, as there's some impressive talent in the ranks keeping their powder dry. Kyle Kirkwood and Christian Lundgaard might have needed a couple of seasons to really get firing in IndyCar, but the two are genuine talents, race-winners, and the two arguably just need a consistent platform to keep Palou on his toes. Then there's Malukas, who's been linked to Power's Penske seat, plus the likes of Robert Shwartzman, Callum Ilott, and the criminally underrated Linus Lundqvist, left on the cutting room floor by Ganassi last year.

There's potential, but the crux of the matter is this: Palou's set an incredibly high bar. Can anyone else jump higher?

Can anyone catch Palou and Ganassi?

Photo by: Penske Entertainment