Write him off at your peril

Kimi Raikkonen has been the subject of a lot of criticism of late, and a look at the past few races certainly suggests that the world champion has lost a bit of momentum. In Germany he qualified sixth and finished in the same position, and in then Hungary he again started sixth and - helped by trouble ahead - moved up to third, albeit behind a Toyota.

It doesn't look like the sort of form that will enable the Finn to win a second successive title. And yet, despite the highs and lows of a turbulent season, he's still right there, just five points behind Lewis Hamilton. Last year after the Hungarian GP, the margin to the McLaren man was 20, and at Interlagos Kimi became world champion. Indeed, with two races to go he was still 17 points behind, so write him off at your peril.

It's easy to suggest that Kimi has somehow lost the plot, but that would be a little short sighted. Just a few weeks ago in France, Raikkonen started from pole and left his teammate Felipe Massa in his wake before an exhaust failure slowed him. In the Silverstone rain, he was catching Hamilton until his team screwed up their tyre strategy. And few noticed during the low-key outing in Hungary that he actually set fastest lap, having spent the first two-thirds of the race stuck behind Fernando Alonso.

And let's not forget that in Canada, Ferrari got him out of the pits in front of Hamilton, and we'll never know how that race would have unfolded had he not been hit by the wayward McLaren.

On the other hand, Monaco was not exactly great - a nudge with a barrier followed by a spectacular spin into the back of the unfortunate Adrian Sutil. And while he didn't fare quiet as badly as the hapless Felipe Massa, he made hard work of Silverstone after that botched tyre choice.

However, the bottom line is that despite his roller-coaster ride, Kimi has still been quietly stashing away the points - a fourth here and a sixth there - and if his luck changes over these next seven races, he could yet win that second title.

"I think if you look at all the drivers, they've all had their ups and downs," says Kimi's co-manager Steve Robertson. "If one of the top four drivers had a bad day last year, they would be fourth on the grid still. F1 is so close now that if you have a bad day, even one of the top boys can be seventh or eighth on the grid, if they don't nail the set-up and get everything perfect. It's closer than it's ever been before.

Kimi Raikkonen runs behind Robert Kubica in the German Grand Prix © LAT

"It would be McLaren or Ferrari last year, depending on which type of circuit we went to. Clearly that's not the case this year, and you can have a top driver finishing sixth or seventh in a weekend."

Robertson agrees that you need to take a closer look at Kimi's performances to truly judge his form.

"He hasn't won for quite some time. But the last two races aside, if you look at the three races before that, he was very unlucky. At Silverstone, OK it was a wrong call for the tyres, but for the six laps prior to the pit stop he caught Lewis up at a second a lap. McLaren had only one call to make because they couldn't keep Lewis on the same tyres anyway, as Kimi was much quicker.

"For sure he had it in the bag in France, but for the exhaust. And he was also in a prime position in Canada, and got taken out in the pit lane. This year more than any other with F1 being so close if you have a bad race you're not necessarily going to finish fourth as you would last year."

There's no hiding from the two most recent qualifying performances. In Hungary his problems were exacerbated by a mistake on his quick lap, but it all boils down to the fact that he's not been happy with the car. He hasn't suddenly lost his ability to drive fast.

"The last two races have been a little bit mystifying," says Robertson, "because he's not been able to find a suitable balance in qualifying. I think if you look at race pace, he still had the fastest lap in Hungary, when he had clean air. But he's not been able to nail it in qualifying because he's not been happy."

He was certainly happy earlier in the season - poles in Spain and France attest to that - so the likely answer is that, during the inevitable rush to introduce developments, something changed in the set-up that simply didn't suit Kimi's driving style. His teammate, noted for his aggressive approach, has suffered less.

"Obviously they've been cross referencing things, because something has definitely happened in the last two races, and some of the development they've made has not actually suited Kimi. It can be completely different in a testing environment as opposed to qualifying, and that does change a lot. There's something there that the team is checking. They need to know what's happened, and what they've changed for the last few races that definitely does not suit Kimi's driving style."

Kimi Raikkonen © LAT

So is Kimi doing a bit of soul searching?

"I'm sure he's concerned about the last two races, that would only be natural. But as I've always said before, he won't dwell on it. He realises that things have to change, and he'll do his best with the team to change the things that are obviously not suiting his driving style. But Kimi's never the sort of person not to sleep at night because of it."

Indeed, having won from so far behind last year, Kimi knows that there is no need to panic just yet. Rivals McLaren know him well, and the team certainly haven't discounted him.

"By observation from the outside, Kimi has not had a straightforward season," says Martin Whitmarsh. "He's a great competitive driver, a great racing driver. In Hungary everyone was starting to write him off. There was some fortune involved in his third place, a puncture for Lewis and an engine failure for Felipe, but nonetheless that's what these great racing drivers have - a habit of being there when others suffer misfortunes, banging the points in."

There is one big difference between this year and last. This time around there is speculation that Kimi is going to retire, and in effect hand his seat to Fernando Alonso. Whether that happens at the end of this season or the next - when his contract expires - is the big question. Clearly there's no smoke without fire, so something is going on.

At first glance, it might seem odd that retirement should even be mentioned in connection with a guy who only turns 29 on the weekend of the Chinese GP, but this is his eighth season of F1, and for seven of those, he's been in one of the two leading teams, with all that entails. He'd just turned 21 when he got the Sauber drive, and it could be that he just wants to do other things in life, like smoke, and drink, and enjoy himself, without being under the spotlight.

Has that situation affected his focus in some way? It's often said that if a driver is even thinking about stopping then he ought to do it sooner rather than later, but Kimi has never been a typical racing driver, and perhaps he does have an ability to completely switch off from that side of things. It could be of course that he's far from making up his mind.

"I am a great admirer of Kimi and I can't believe that he's going to retire," says Whitmarsh. "People have created that speculation, and knowing Kimi a little bit, he's not going to be fussed about correcting it. So it grows, doesn't it? He's a great world champion and in my opinion he'll fancy his chances of winning a few more.

"He's got all of that speculation surrounding who might be his teammate etc, I suspect for him that becomes a little bit wearisome. You either get involved in it, and react to it, or you shrug your shoulders and get on with what you want to do. I think Kimi's doing the latter, and it's probably the right thing."

Kimi Raikkonen © LAT

Steve Robertson insists that there has been no loss of motivation: "He wants to win his second world championship as much as he wanted his first. We're all aware that to win two takes you to a different level - there are a lot of world champions, but not too many double world champions, so Kimi is just as eager to win another one. He's just as motivated as ever before."

What will really become interesting in the coming weeks is how Ferrari balance the interests of their two drivers. Last year, Massa gradually faded from the title picture - his retirement in Monza was really the last straw - and, quite rightly, all attention was placed on how to win the title for Kimi. The strategy at the Interlagos finale was beautifully choreographed.

This year it might not be so easy, and there's no Jean Todt around to make the tough calls. He might have had a soft spot for his Brazilian protege, but when there was a title at stake, Todt could be ruthless. Not that Stefano Domenicali can't make those big decisions, but things could get very tricky over the last few races.

Robertson remains confident that his man is in with a shout.

"It's everything to play for. If you compare things to last year, he was a lot more than five points behind. It's going to go down to the wire. The most consistent man between now and the end of the year is going to be the guy that wins the championship.

"Obviously everyone needs a little bit of luck as well. In Valencia there could be a few safety cars, and it's a bit like rolling dice, if it's the wrong time for you. All those drivers need a bit of luck to win the championship."