The Weekly Grapevine

Threatened

Page back through Formula One's history books, and the calendar for the sport's inaugural season (1950) lists Grands Prix in Britain, Monaco, Switzerland, Belgium, France and Italy, plus a race at Indianapolis. Fast forward a year, and Germany and Spain join the fray.

These, then, can be said to be the sport's 'Grandee Prix', with all subsequent events, whether held in Brazil or Bahrain, considered to be no more than gatecrashers at an exclusive party.

Various events, not least a now-public letter addressed by the FIA's beleaguered president Max Mosley to all the heads of all clubs affiliated to motoring's governing body, have occurred over the past week or so which have brought the fates and futures of the remaining seven classic Grands Prix - in alphabetical order, Belgium, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Monaco and Spain - into sharp focus.

However, before analysing those, it is important to note that the two events that have fallen off FIA Formula One World Championship calendars over the years, namely Indianapolis and the Swiss Grand Prix, have done so through factors outside the direct control of Formula One Management, the current F1 commercial rights' holder.

Indianapolis may return in 2009 © LAT

During its ten years on the F1 calendar the American race was, of course, a first-class anomaly as it catered purely for cars running to then-USAC specifications, and this fact was taken on board after the 1960 'Indy 500', when F1 switched to 1.5 litre cars and the race dropped from the F1 calendar.

Tellingly though, until last year there had been a Formula One race at Indianapolis (since 2000), but after FOM and the George family failed to agree on revised terms (said to include a doubling of the hosting fee), the circuit gave notice of its withdrawal from negotiations.

Whilst a race is rumoured for next year - mainly after manufacturer interests within the sport demanded a race in the world' largest auto market - no announcement has as yet been made.

Should a race happen, sources suggest that it will be entirely underwritten by said manufacturers, for such are F1's fees structures that a privately promoted race - particularly in the land of the free - cannot turn a profit.

As regards the Swiss round, this disappeared in the wake the 1955 Le Mans 24 Hour tragedy, when over 80 spectators were killed by a flaming Mercedes-Benz which flew through a grandstand.

Whilst many countries banned motor racing immediately after Pierre Levegh's shocking accident, most lifted them after a reasonable period of reflection, with only Switzerland continuing its ban doggedly.

It was eventually lifted in June last year after a 97-77 vote, but any return to the F1 calendar is highly unlikely, certainly in the short to medium term.

The fates of the remaining Grandee Prix are, though, very much within the control of both the FIA and the CRH, as made evident in Mosley's letter when he alluded to the need to preserve 'the core elements of the FIA's patrimony, including, for example, our ability to protect the traditional Grands Prix.'

Taking these 'traditional Grands Prix' in order, then, what chance do they have of remaining on the calendar?

Eau Rouge © LAT

Belgium

Whilst not under siege (for the moment), Spa-Francorchamps, and by extension its Grand Prix, is a bit of a lost soul, with doubts existing as to who exactly is promoting the event and for whom.

The previous promoter was bankrupted spectacularly after the 2005 event, and, after skipping a year, the race on this most spectacular of circuits was back in September last year.

It returned at a price, though. In addition to hosting fees of £7m, the local government pays a 'sponsorship fee' of around £4m, bringing the total to close to £12m - with 10 percent per annum escalator clauses built into the contract.

How much longer the circuit can afford these fees is a question increasingly being asked in Belgium.

Britain

That Bernie Ecclestone, the de facto CRH, and the British Racing Drivers Club - of which he is a member on account of his 1950s F3 campaigns - are at constant loggerheads over Silverstone's race is public knowledge and needs no amplification.

Suffice to say that many within the club believe Ecclestone is on a mission to remove Silverstone from the fixtures sooner rather than later, and, if stories emanating from the BRDC are to be believed, he may succeed come the end of the present contract after next year's race.

Sources indicate that Ecclestone is demanding £12m per annum (almost double the present hosting fee), plus the standard FOM escalator and substantial improvements to the circuit's facilities - which alone are estimated to cost upwards of £50m.

The killer clause in the five-year contract is, though, believed to be a demand by Ecclestone that the circuit pay two years' fees (+£25m) up front as security that the circuit which hosted the first-ever world championship race will meet all his requirements for the full five-year contractual period.

Back in February this column wrote: Thus Silverstone, should, it seems, place its upgrade plans on ice and suggest that the BRDC's membership gather before giant TV screens in its rather stylish clubhouse every fortnight to watch F1 doing its thing on featureless circuits carved through some or other isolated outcrop.

Failing which, they may not have a clubhouse from which to watch national racing for much longer ...

Unless Mosley is able to enforce the FIA's patrimony, the BRDC could do worse than follow that advice.

The entrance to Magny-Cours © LAT

France

This year the French Grand Prix is back on the calendar, but only after Ecclestone failed to agree terms with Indianapolis (see above), and already the 79-year-old has let it be known that there will be no return to Magny-Cours, and that he favours a street circuit in the Paris region from 2010 onwards.

Then there is talk that Britain and France will alternate events, but as Germany is proving to its cost (see below), this hardly makes for a sustainable business model, as a circuit's fixed and upgrade costs remain constant over a set period of time, whilst its income drops by 50 percent.

Thus, unless Ecclestone can persuade Paris to spend millions on converting its streets into an F1-compliant venue, France seems set to go the way of Britain.

Germany

In July 2006, when the concept of circuits in a given country entering into timeshare arrangements gained currency and Hockenheim and the Nurburgring were rumoured to be doing just that, this column wrote:

Given that Grand Prix hosting fees have risen out of all proportion when compared with the annual inflation rates of host countries (which country, bar Brazil, suffers 10 percent annual cost of living increases?), and that Grand Prix timesharing was proven to be uneconomical in the 1970s, just why should it make commercial sense in the 21st century.

Better, surely, to drop Hockenheim, which has, since Hermann Tilke took his scissors to its layout, no redeeming features or unique selling points, and concentrate on sustaining the Nurburgring. Then, the country which invented the automobile, may boast one profitable circuit.

Since then the latter circuit has hosted its race, and Hockenheim is due to do so in July - for the first time since 2006. However, with less than eight weeks to go to the race, the CEO of the circuit, Karl Josef Schmidt, has warned that this year's edition could be the last Grand Prix at the circuit.

"The state of Baden-Wurttemberg needs to support us financially," he said this week, "otherwise Germany will not have a race in 2010." (The Nurburgring is scheduled to host the Grand Prix in 2009)

The state's Ministry for Industry, which injected 15m euros (£12m) into the circuit's coffers in order to facilitate its reprofiling in 2002, immediately rejected calls for assistance.

"We have no public duty to support events as may be staged by the Hockenheimring," a ministerial spokesperson was quoted as saying by a local newspaper.

So, another classic Grand Prix circuit seems about to bite the dust, but at least the message carried by its possible demise is that timesharing does not work.

The harbor in Monaco © LAT

Italy

Monza seems safe for now, with its profitability no longer threatened after the disappearance of Imola from the calendar. But unless Ferrari keeps winning the Autodromo di Monza will be unable to justify the highest ticket prices in Europe (bar, of course, Monaco) for what is arguably the worst spectator experience on the trail. And, then its profitability will be under siege ...

Monaco

Monaco is Monaco, I hear you say - and so it is. But, how much longer will Ecclestone's partners agree to the hosting of a race in exchange for zero income from either rights fees or billboards. This Sunday have a glance at Monaco's billboards and note how the companies and products differ from those advertised at other Grands Prix ...

Ultimately the Monaco royal family's philosophy is simple: if F1 wishes to play on its streets, it is welcome to do so as long as the principality is not required to pay for the spectacle.

Already the Automobile Club Monaco has advised that it considering totally withdrawing its Rallye Monte Carlo from the World Rally Championship; can the Grand Prix be far behind? With its historic racing and rally festivals now firmly established, don't bet against it ...

Spain

Fernando Alonso's home country, too, is safe - as long as he keeps winning. Fifteen years ago busloads of children were ferried in to the Circuit de Catalunya to fill the stands (it was said that less than 20 000 punters out of an attendance of a total 38,000 actually paid for tickets).

Until Alonso started winning the country did not even take free-to-air broadcasts. Last year, though, the promoters stopped selling tickets when the 140,000 mark was reached ...

But, this year - with the local hero in an obviously uncompetitive car - the crowd was down by 10 percent, and the exodus after Alonso retired at the halfway mark was remarked upon by most in the media centre situated opposite the main stand.

After Carlos Sainz retired from rallying, Spanish motorsport fans quickly transferred their enthusiasm to F1, but with no heir apparent on the horizon and, given this apparent fickleness, the medium-to long-term viability of the sport in the country.

Conclusion

Of course, Ecclestone will always find countries willing to pay his eye-watering fees, but is the sport best served by the empty grandstands seen in Turkey - a circuit over which Ecclestone himself holds the lease and rights?

Ultimately the sport needs a balance of old and new - and the present 18-race calendar, consisting of the seven 'classics', six 'established' race in Australia, Canada, Hungary, Europe, Japan, and Brazil, and five 'newies' in Malaysia, Bahrain, Turkey, Singapore and China represents a reasonable spread. Add in races in the USA and Africa to bring it up to 20, and the calendar will be perfect ...