The Weekly Grapevine

So, where to, Fernando?

Close on three weeks after receiving his decree absolute in the matter McLaren Racing versus Fernando Alonso Diaz, there is still no news as to the Spaniard's intentions for 2008 and beyond.

Rumours abound, yes, as do wishful statements from, amongst others, Renault, his former team, and the one with whom he won a brace of record-setting world titles, but hard and fast announcement: no.

In addition to the French outfit, the driver has variously been linked to Ferrari, Toyota, BMW, Red Bull and Honda. Such is Alonso's reputation as a driver that, despite some unsavoury shenanigans he is said to have been involved with at McLaren, ten out of the 11 teams on the grid would seriously consider clearing a cockpit to accommodate him.

To many, returning to Renault, where he remains loved despite sleeping with the enemy, makes enormous sense: he joined the revitalised outfit in 2002 as tester, was promoted to racer the next year (scoring its first pole two races later) and delivered victory (as youngest-ever driver) in Hungary 2003.

In 70 races, he scored 15 pole positions, an equal number of race wins and 14 second places.

Add in two each drivers' and constructors' championships, and it is easy to grasp why the Anglo-French team, which languishes a real fourth on the log just 12 months after his departure - although, to be fair, a raft of reasons for Renault's poor 2007 performance do exist - is desperate to see him return regardless of a defection which visibly hurt team boss Flavio Briatore and many of his men.

There Alonso is assured of all he craves: undisputed Number One status, subservient team-mate - be he Heikki Kovalainen or Nelsinho Piquet - plus, no doubt, a hefty pay increase, certainly in comparison to his 2002-6 earnings, if not as his generous as his 2006 McLaren stipend.

But, against a Renault return is the team's pending appearance before the World Motor Sport Council on charges not dissimilar to those faced by the very McLaren Alonso recently departed.

Plus, Fernando needs to question whether he really wishes to return: at the time of his departure some snide comments were passed, and it really is a question of how far the parties have moved since splitting. Maybe it is a bridge too far, particularly now that Alonso has tasted life in arguably the best-equipped team in town.

In the final analysis, though, why would he commit to Renault before the WMSC verdict is handed down and its consequences known?

For all Alonso knows, Renault's enthusiasm for the sport, which has oft seemed ambivalent, may well wane and the company could elect to exit the sport should it cop a penalty similar to McLaren's record $100m fine. Where would that then leave the double champion?

Thus, the comments made by Briatore on Italian radio earlier this week that there existed a 60 percent chance that Alonso would be rejoining the team tasted somewhat salty...

The Ferrari rumour gained currency after Luca di Montezemolo praised Alonso - something the red team's president hardly does lightly - and gathered momentum when a revised executive structure was announced by Maranello immediately after Ross Brawn was confirmed as team principal at Honda.

Strangely, Ferrari's announcement made absolutely zero reference to Jean Todt save to state that his duties as Director of Gestione Sportiva (the company's sporting division) had been held 'as interim'.

This led many - including this column - to conclude the Frenchman, whose son Nicholas manages Felipe Massa, would no longer control Ferrari's sporting or other activities from 1 January, the effective date for the new 'family tree'.

This conclusion drew an immediate, and mercifully humorous, response from Luca Colajanni, Ferrari's head of media affairs, who gave assurances that newly-appointed Sporting Director Stefano Domenicali would be reporting to Ferrari CEO Todt. Let us wait, though, for that day, for as many rumours abound over Todt's future as they do over Alonso's...

To return, though, to the question of the swarthy Spaniard's future. Whilst Ferrari could certainly find a use for his undisputed talents, there exists no earthly reason for the team to do so (now).

As a double champion he would surely stipulate number one status - as he is said to have demanded retrospectively at McLaren - and that would be selling reigning champion Kimi Raikkonen very short indeed, plus inflict considerable damage on Ferrari's budget just as Brussels is turning up the pressure on its fag money.

Plus, why would Ferrari consider displacing Massa, who has proven himself the perfect team-mate for Kimi: fast enough to keep the Finn honest whilst refraining from playing politics games.

Felipe's home race, in Brazil, was exemplary and his willingness - whether voluntary or sporting - to cede second to Kimi will not have diminished his standing even if he is, to some, managed by the 'wrong' family.

Given the choice between Alonso and his recent baggage and Felipe and his present team-player attitude, it is, simply, a no-brainer for a team which already has in Kimi arguably the fastest driver on its side - meaning the tenth of a second or so Felipe ultimately lacks on the top duo can simply be fudged into the bigger picture.

So, Fernando in a red suit anytime soon? Not likely...

In China, after Ralf Schumacher's departure from Toyota was confirmed, and approximately four weeks before Alonso's inevitable split with McLaren was announced, Toyota boss John Howett confirmed that the team had expressed an interest in employing Alonso.

"I think every team in the pitlane would probably be looking at him," said Howett. "I think the question is whether he would come (to Toyota) or not. I personally think it unlikely, we would be delighted if he was to move, but I think a chain reaction is more likely should he move from McLaren."

Asked whether Toyota had (at that stage) initiated contact with Alonso, Howett admitted talks had been held; qualifying, though, that they had been low key:

"They were not really detailed talks at all, we just made an expression that if ever he was thinking of moving, then Toyota would be interested. But, I think at this stage he has his eyes elsewhere."

Since then Alonso has, of course, 'moved from McLaren', so is likely to at some stage have revisited Toyota's contact, if only in his own mind and that of his manager.

But two questions arise in this regard: first, with Toyota having earlier this week announced GP2 champion Timo Glock as partner to Jarno Trulli, where would 'Fred' fit in were he to agree terms with the Japanese giant; and, second, would he, in Howett's words, consider 'coming to Toyota'?

Certainly, Toyota's inducement would be attractive to a driver not as flush as his successes would suggest. Renault are notoriously parsimonious, whilst in Flavio Briatore Fernando had (has?) a famously hard-bargaining manager reputed to take 50 percent of his charges' earnings as pay-back for having made entry into Formula One possible in the first place.

So, Fernando is said to be worth 'just' $20m after two titles and six racing years in F1. Although bank account remains eye-watering by normal standards, it is still 50 percent of Kimi's 2007 earnings - before his title bonus kicks in.

Thus, Fernando could do with a big payday, particularly now that his McLaren earnings are no more, but, having contributed substantially to Renault's resurgence (remember where they languished in 2002?), would he want to go through all that again, even for big bucks?

Having, though, established a fiscal desire to join the red-white team, does a sporting one exist? Fernando contributed substantially to Renault's resurgence (remember where the team languished in 2002, before he arrived?), but would he want to go through all that again, this time as multiple champion and proven race winner?

These questions would appear to have clear-cut answers even before the issue of Toyota's immediate sporting prowess is addressed, and here, again, the question must be asked whether Fernando would willingly accept a mid-field grid slot come Australia. Again, the answer seems self-evident...

In any event, who would Toyota 'dump' should such a environment come to pass?

Hardly Glock, for it is highly unlikely that Toyota would have pushed the Contract Recognition Board to release the German from BMW's test-driving clutches to then unceremoniously dump him, particularly as Toyota Motorsport GmbH is situated on German soil and the driver's homeland represents Toyota's largest market within Europe.

And Jarno Trulli? Whilst a case could be made that the driver who has a reputation for being amongst the fastest ever over a single lap (yet, strangely does not a Fastest Lap to his name) has not done enough to justify yet another season at Toyota, the Italian wine farmer does represent all-important continuity.

Thus, red/white seems unlikely for FA, certainly in the short term.

BMW, too, would appear to be improbable. Not only can the German-Swiss team count on the safest pair of hands in Nick Heidfeld, and the driver Lewis Hamilton concedes is likely to give himself the hardest time in future (Robert Kubica), but is realistic enough to accept that it is not yet a title-winning team.

As such, having a double champion in one of its cockpits would leave itself open to accusations of underperformance - anathema to a company with a proud history of building sporting cars.

That BMW has the means to do Fernando's talents justice is undisputed; however, the team presently has other priorities, and his arrival on the scene would serve merely to disrupt these at a crucial stage in its development.

Red Bull uses Renault engines, supplied under an agreement struck by Briatore, who also happens to have the team's Mark Webber under personal contract...

So, possibilities to place Alonso surely exist at Red Bull Racing, and its highly-profitable parent company is known for its generosity towards drivers. Then, communicating with his team in English - and the opportunity of returning to Oxford from his present Swiss abode - could prove appealing.

But, simply put, would Fernando wish to be little more than a soft drink delivery driver? At Renault and McLaren he had at least had the prestigious support of major motor manufacturers - of import to a humble soul from northern Spain - whereas any tenure at RBR is likely to involve more glitz and glamour than race results.

Which leaves Honda. In last week's incisive 'The Observer' column, colleague Damien Smith raised the possibility of Alonso joining the British-based (within spitting distance of Oxford...) Japanese team, and, frankly, Honda ticks more boxes for Alonso than even Renault.

Not only is Honda a major motor manufacturer, but the company is the world's largest producer of engines, it would appear to have carte blanche to spend what it takes, is desperate to beat Toyota in the sporting and prestige stakes, has the money to satisfy his demands.

And above all, has strongly English orientation, which appears to be Alonso's second culture.

Then, he has no need to fear Jenson Button although the Brit is fast enough to provide a meaningful benchmark, whilst many of Honda's staff are ex-Benetton, which, of course, begat Renault F1 in 2001. Thus the team culture is not too far removed from Renault's.

Honda's political slate at the FIA is (now) clean, and the company is reeling after an absolutely dismal season, one which will surely motivate every single individual to push to the maximum in 2008.

With Ross Brawn aboard - and who better to sing Fernando's praises than the man whose star driver at Ferrari was not once but twice beaten by a Spaniard driving for a team with vastly inferior facilities - Alonso could hardly ask for a better team principal.

There exists, as always in such situations, a stumbling block: Rubens Barrichello's contract. But as Damien wrote in his excellent piece, he could surely be farmed out to Aguri or retire to Sao Paulo, for, frankly, the Brazilian performances in 2007 were hardly the stuff of dreams and thus in direct conflict with the parent company's advertising strap line: 'The Power of Dreams'.

Yes, Ross worked with Rubens at Ferrari and no doubt enjoys his company enormously, but can hardly be expected to shield him at Honda, particularly when Alonso and present manager Luis Garcia Abad come knocking, as they may could.

So, of all possible scenarios, the best fit would appear to be Honda. Will it come to pass? Possibly not, for F1 is an enormously fickle place, particularly for fussy people - and last year can hardly have endeared Fernando to all and sundry.

In that case he may just consider calling it a day - for a year or for ever. Don't bet against that possibly, either: he has (at least) $20m in the bank, a massive following in Spain (which will surely mutate into business opportunities), two titles to his name and more than once displayed his distaste for the sport's politics in an unruly fashion.

At just 26 and four months, he has a life yet to come...

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