The Weekly Grapevine

The second Renault seat

Giancarlo Fisichella's contract extension with Renault was fairly predictable: the team have long known that Fernando Alonso departs for a team whose motto translates as 'all that glitters is certainly NOT gold'. Whilst not the quickest gun in the corral, the personable and extremely decent Italian is well-known to the team, and, above all, well-liked within it, and is certainly the default option.

That manager Enrico Zanarini could conceivably sell a farmer with one cow two milking machines whilst taking the lonely bovine in part-payment (the farmers equivalent of palming Eddie Irvine off to Jackie Stewart for record sums) no doubt had more than a little to do with the contractual extension, but that, after all, is exactly the function of these 'ten percenters'.

The question, then, is who will assist 'Fisico' in defending what looks increasingly likely to be Renault's second consecutive title?

Tester Heikki Kovalainen, whilst incredibly talented in a drama-free way, has some way to go before he can be fully relied upon to bring home regular hauls of points, and, as long doubts exist as to the exact 2007-onward destinies of the likes of Michael Schumacher and Kimi Raikkonen, F1's newest Finn simply has to be content to play a waiting game with a view to longer-term gain.

Heikki Kovalainen © LAT

True, his 2004 Race of Champions victory at Paris' Stade de France amply illustrated his ability to deflect pressure, whilst some scintillating GP2 races last year proved his mettle, albeit in a category largely created by FBM, the management team which, not without reason, carries the initials of one Flavio Briatore - who doubles, of course, as team boss of Renault.

But, in the final analysis, Heikki is a touch 'light' when multiple race winners Schumacher, Raikkonen, Jacques Villeneuve, David Coulthard and Juan Pablo Montoya are said to be uncommitted for next year.

Of the quartet, Montoya is thought to be the likeliest to don the blue/yellow overall made famous by Alonso. True, the mercurial seven-time winner has his fans, but if Ron Dennis - who was able to simultaneously 'handle' Alain Prost and Ayrton Senna a decade and a half ago - struggles to coax consistency from the Colombian, what chance of the not unabrasive Briatore doing better?

That Montoya, whose 2006 performances have hardly placed him top of every team boss' wish list, could be considered to be in F1's last chance saloon was clearly illustrated by the urgent strides of manager Julian Jacobi in Spain, Monaco and Silverstone.

Yes, he sells Indianapolis winner and IRL champion Dan Wheldon, too, but the manner of Jacobi's buzzing implied extremely urgent business, whereas the young Brit seems settled in the US (for now).

Coulthard has recently taken to publicly exhorting his present team, Red Bull Racing, to extend his contract sooner rather than later, and his fine third (the team's first podium as RBR) in Monaco could hardly have damaged his stock. Whilst the entire Red Bull operation has no shortage of nascent talent waiting in its wings, it needs a safe pair of hands in at least one car, and the stubbly Scot is certainly that.

There was a time when the rumour mill suggested that Montoya was RBR-bound, but would any team seriously consider Montoya over the man he, rather ironically, replaced at McLaren? Forget not that Adrian Newey, the team's recently-appointed chief technical officer, worked with both at McLaren.

So, Coulthard is, it seems, intent - through word and deed - on removing himself from the Renault equation to stay with RBR, which does not, though, imply the door is wide open for Montoya, whose performances at Williams and McLaren went, on occasion, beyond the enigmatic.

In fact, the wise money is predicting a return to the ovals of America, where Montoya, a demonstrably committed family man, first found fame and fortune, and, tellingly, still maintains a home.

So, of Renault's five 'likelies', two are seemingly struck off the list - one remaining in situ; the other to his early pastures.

Villeneuve was included in the group simply as, come Brazil, he is an out-of-contract race winner. What chance, then, of Briatore snapping up William-Renault's 1997 champion?

Very little to zero, goes the conventional wisdom, for not only is Jacques nearing the twilight of his initially helter-skelter career, but the French-speaking Canadian's most recent liaison with Renault - when he replaced Jarno Trulli in 2004 in a three-race deal which was more complicated than convivial - hardly set the tracks on fire.

Lewis Hamilton wins at Silverstone © LAT

Which leaves Michael, Kimi and ... Lewis Hamilton. Taking last-named first, there is little doubt that the GP2 championship-walking British-born black driver is rated way higher at this stage of his career than was Kovalainen a year ago, but some of that could be down to a Brit press pack urgently seeking to create a hero in the wake of Jenson Button's disappointing season.

The fact remains, though, that Hamilton is delivering in style and clearly seems destined for F1 in 2007. Briatore recently suggested that Hamilton was on his wish list, and, whilst that was seen in some quarters as a Dennis-baiting tactic - the two team bosses are hardly bosom buddies, and Dennis certainly 'got one over' Briatore by signing Alonso - he would be extremely myopic were he to not consider Hamilton's services.

If made available by Dennis, who owns him for the foreseeable future, at least.

So, would Dennis do so, what chance of loaning Hamilton to Renault for a season or two? Well, purely from a career perspective, Hamilton would be better served by going head-to-head with Fisichella at Renault that the other obvious option: going head-to-head with Alonso at McLaren.

There is, then, the question of whether Dennis loaning 'his' man to his Italian nemesis, with some sources doubting whether Dennis would ever go as far as entering into any agreement with Briatore, let alone with Hamilton, for whom Dennis seems to display more than purely professional affection, at the very core.

Those sources, though, overlook that Dennis has never had an easy relationship with Jean Todt - he of Ferrari's main office - yet had no qualms about placing Hamilton with ART Grand Prix, the GP2 team jointly owned by none other than Nicolas Todt. So, that door is wide open for Hamilton: as long as a seat alongside Fisichella remains available.

All of which points to the ultimate availability of Schumacher and Raikkonen, who collectively hold the keys to the 2007 driver market. First, clarity is required as to the former's intentions. Basically: will he or won't he? If he chooses not to retire and sit on the nest egg of $250m Schumacher is estimated to have accumulated during a remarkable career, the next question is whether he stays at Ferrari or not.

A decision has been promised by the end of June, which, forget not, falls on Friday next week.

The jury is split on whether he stays or leaves the sport which made him richer than even he imagined five years ago, and is equally split as to whether he stays with Ferrari in the former instance. Thus, statistically, the chances of Schumacher donning red overalls in 2007 could be said to be but 25%. But, in F1, even 1% implies every chance.

In which case, the chances are that Kimi will remain at McLaren, with a highly profitable deal massaged by his double-act management team of David and Steve Robertson.

Yes, Briatore would surely love to sign Schumacher or Raikkonen to partner Fisichella, but can Renault, operating on the smallest budget of all manufacturer-backed teams, really afford their demands?

Giancarlo Fisichella © LAT

Briatore's proven specialty is the taking of young, emerging but, above all, cheap talent and moulding the team around them. Think Schumacher and 1991-95, think Alonso 2002-2006; then think Briatore and Gerhard Berger/Jean Alesi in 1996/7.

All of which would indicate that Fisichella will be partnered by a young gun in 2007 - whether or not Schumacher retires; whether or not Raikkonen remains at McLaren. The latter is not inconceivable: consider for a moment the considerable powers of persuasion Dennis harnessed in 1993 to persuade Senna to stay; consider how Newey was talked into an about-turn after the ink had dried on his Jaguar deal in 2001.

Just who that young gun is likely to be remains to be seen. Kovalainen is a known quantity - both good and bad under the circumstances - whose star would appear to have paled slightly of late, whereas Hamilton is very much flavour of the month in most circles. But, he is very much an unknown F1 quantity at present, although that is amply compensated for by his British and black heritage.

The most likely scenario, though, sees Schumacher retiring, Kimi donning red alongside Felipe Massa, and Kovalainen and Hamilton lining up for Renault and McLaren respectively, whilst Coulthard stays put and Montoya renews his acquaintance with Chip Ganassi's team in the US.

A mixture of experience and youth, with, of course the lure of a Ferrari-driving Kimi. Now for that Schumacher announcement...