The inside line on the Oz GP

The winter whispers have been that Ferrari and Bridgestone could struggle this year. But those who've been around the block a few times reckon that's wishful thinking and that both companies are far too strong not to be challenging for the drivers and constructors championships again.

What we do know for certain is that Ferrari turned up at Imola last week with its 2004 car and went very quickly indeed. And they were especially impressive over a longer run. Okay, the temperature at Imola was 3C and, as I write in Melbourne it is 33C, and thus much more up Michelin's alley, but there's every reason to suspect that Ferrari will be right in the thick of it again.

Consequently, it's no surprise to find Paddy Power quoting Michael 2-1 favourite to win in Melbourne this weekend. That's pretty short odds at this stage of the game and for Ferrari fans I'd be tempted to take a close look at the 10-1 on offer for Rubens Barrichello. An each way bet offers one fifth of the odds and this looks like a pretty solid punt to me.

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The Williams FW26 might not be the prettiest F1 car anyone has ever seen but that won't matter if it wins races. They are ahead of themselves this year compared to their position with FW25 at the start of last year and should be on the pace everywhere.

There are just a couple of question marks, however. One driver is leaving for McLaren and the other is sniping at the team about his contract negotiations, so perhaps focus isn't quite what it might be and there could be problems as the year develops. Already, Monty has stormed out of a press conference (see separate story). Then there have been some gearbox reliability concerns in testing. But nobody doubts that they will be right on the pace.

Perhaps the best option for Melbourne, then, is to look closely at the Williams pole position odds. Juan Pablo Montoya is on offer at 11-4 with Ralf Schumacher quoted at 4-1. Both look worthwhile bets with their respective 3-1 and 5-1 race odds that little bit riskier until we know where they are with reliability.

McLaren was very quick before Christmas but has not looked so good when up against the new 2004 opposition. The outright pace has looked questionable recently and there have been mutterings about lack of power. It might be wise to hold off on the silver cars for the first weekend of the new season although committed McLaren fans might fancy David Coulthard at 4-1 for a podium.

Renault has been very impressive in testing and there is an air of confidence about the team. They have looked very strong and consistent on long runs if not quite so convincing on one-lap runs. The odds of 9-1 on Fernando Alonso and 25-1 on Jarno Trulli to win the race might just be never to be repeated '04 opportunities.

Certainly, at those prices, an each way bet on the Italian should enter your thinking. And Jarno, one of the best qualifiers out there, is also 20-1 for the pole, which is not bad against 12-1 for Alonso. It would be a long shot but it might be worth a few quid.

And then for all you patriotic souls, there's Jenson Button. The new BAR looks good, it's on Michelins and you can get Jenson at 25-1 for Sunday afternoon. Or, if you think Takuma Sato can keep it out of the wall for 90 minutes, how about 80-1! Again, these are odds the like of which you might not see again if the cars look very strong.

Another couple of eventualities you might like to cover surround the weather. I'm told that rain is a strong possibility on race day and if so, you could do well to have a tenner each-way riding on the experienced wet weather ace Giancarlo Fisichella in a Ferrari-engined Sauber on Bridgestones.

Given that nobody worthwhile barring Ferrari is on the Japanese tyres, with their acknowledged wet weather superiority, it might actually be hard for Fisi not to finish on the podium if it rains all day Sunday. The only potential fly in the ointment could be Nick Heidfeld. But he's now in a Jordan and available at 200-1!

Good Luck for the new season and happy punting! To make a bet, CLICK HERE.