The Complete 2006 Japanese GP Review

Just seven days earlier in China, a delighted Michael Schumacher spoke of how he had been 'hit by the swinging pendulum of luck' after taking a victory that confounded all expectations.

His imagery was a little awkward, but the point was valid. Fortune's pendulum has rarely oscillated as dramatically as it has during the 2006 Formula One season, and the last few rounds in particular.

But now it might just have made its decisive move, and it is Fernando Alonso whom luck has favoured.

After Bridgestone and Ferrari set a genuinely shocking pace in practice and qualifying, the paddock and the pundits were unanimous in their belief that Schumacher would run away with the Japanese Grand Prix and all but secure the title in the process.

They had been just as adamant that Alonso would dominate China, though. Yet shortly after the Shanghai race began, Schumacher was pleasantly surprised to find himself still in contention. Alonso had exactly the same feeling at Suzuka.

Significantly, this time there was no need for a drastic variation in weather conditions to shake up the F1 power balance. The wind and temperature changed a little, but that was all.

It wasn't so much that Bridgestone's performance on Sunday was bad, more that their speed on Saturday had been so exceptional that no one expected Alonso to get remotely close to Schumacher.

Michelin, reckoned Alonso, had been fairly consistent in form all weekend. But the tyre design that proved so outstandingly successful for Bridgestone on a one lap flier turned out to be merely ordinary during a 15- to 20-lap race stint. Indeed, many other Bridgestone runners, including Felipe Massa, complained of graining.

Even if Alonso had finished a close second to Schumacher, it would have been hailed as a superb and significant result in the circumstances, and one achieved against the odds.

But Schumacher's costly engine failure changed the storyline significantly. Coming so soon after Monza, where Alonso suffered his first race engine failure in years, the symmetry of events defied belief.

These relentless surprises should be heeded, for this season has already supplied a remarkable string of twists and turns. Every time that people thought they had a grasp of the how the title battle was developing, something incredible has happened to defy expectations.

So while Schumacher has effectively counted himself out of the title battle and Alonso only has to do what he has done 16 times already this season and finish in the points in order to become world champion, one last quirk of fate cannot be ruled out.

Alonso has already declared that he will take a 'safety first' approach in Brazil.

"The team know what to do, but if I can say something to them, it will be to be so conservative." said Alonso. "It is no time to risk."

Alonso caused a minor press storm on the first day in the paddock by suggesting that he had been left "alone" and unsupported within Renault at times the year, but the euphoric welcome that he received from his Renault mechanics proved that any resentment had already been healed. They can't celebrate just yet, but they can perhaps begin making preparations for the party...

"We lost a lot of points in bad luck moments," said Alonso. "These ten points are a little present that God gave us."

Now it seems like only divine intervention can stop Alonso from beating Schumacher to the title.

"The title for the drivers is over now," Schumacher conceded. "I don't want to believe in me winning and my opponent not scoring one point.

"To lose the championship now is life and I can live with it very well."

Schumacher's seven previous titles probably helped him to achieve this tranquil acceptance of his probable defeat in Brazil. He has been there before and succeeded - many times.

Even if Alonso's luck hadn't turned around, he would still have had many chances to win more titles in the future. But surely nothing that he subsequently wins will be as sweet a success as the 2006 championship victory would be.

Not only will Alonso have endured more heart-stopping ups and downs in his title campaign than almost any other past champion, but he will become the last person to beat the great Schumacher to an F1 crown. The moment of truth is just two weeks and 71 laps away. It may not be neck-and-neck anymore, but the tension remains.

Practice

Rain throughout Friday meant that a realistic picture of Suzuka form did not emerge until halfway through final practice on Saturday morning. When it did, the news was devastating for everyone on Michelins, and Renault in particular.

As the likes of Ralf Schumacher and Nico Rosberg popped into the top three, it became clear that Bridgestone held the advantage. And then Michael Schumacher beat his brother's benchmark by a full 1.2 seconds just before the chequered flag.

The gulf between Schumacher's 1:30.953 lap and fifth-placed Fernando Alonso's best effort was a sobering 1.9 seconds, and with Renault equally unnerved by Ferrari's pace on long runs, even damage limitation looked like a lofty goal for the reigning champion.

Alonso couldn't even take solace from being the quickest Michelin runner, for both Jenson Button and Giancarlo Fisichella were marginally faster.

It was Fisichella who had set the overall pace in the 10 minutes of moderately dry running that the teams achieved on Friday.

The sun came out right at the end of the afternoon session, allowing Fisichella to lap in 1:34.337. Felipe Massa, Schumacher and Alonso were close behind.

Honda test driver Anthony Davidson had dominated the wet periods, leading both morning practice (ahead of circuit debutant Neel Jani) and the damp part of the second session.

BMW's Sebastian Vettel was only 0.006 seconds behind Davidson in the battle of the number three drivers and could not conceal his delight at his first taste of Suzuka.

His countryman Adrian Sutil is hotly tipped for a 2007 Spyker race seat on the basis of some star Friday performances earlier in the year, but he didn't get a chance to shine at Suzuka as an engine failure robbed him of any dry laps.

Practice round up

Sorted by total laps from all three sessions

Qualifying

Part one

Despite being solidly at the back of the Formula One pack, Super Aguri appeared to have roused plenty of home support, so it was a shame for the local fans - if not a surprise - that neither of the Japanese drivers made it through Q1.

Sakon Yamamoto didn't even set a time, having stalled the car as he luridly half-spun under braking for the hairpin on his first flying lap.

However, Takuma Sato achieved the minor victory of getting the lead Super Aguri off the back row. He beat Spyker MF1's Tiago Monteiro to 20th, although the Portuguese driver cited "a problem with the front end of the car" as the reason that prevented him from following teammate Christijan Albers into Q2.

The Toro Rossos had similar divergent fortunes, with Tonio Liuzzi making the cut but Scott Speed ending up 19th after a misunderstanding with Jenson Button - who was attempting to let the American by.

Liuzzi and Albers's progress came at the expense of the senior Red Bull team. David Coulthard and Robert Doornbos would share row nine, a result that prompted Coulthard to publicly question RBR's optimism about the great leap forward they hope to take when their Adrian Newey era commences in 2007.

"This is about a team that's underperforming," he said, bluntly. "We've been outqualified by last year's car (the Toro Rosso). The year started badly and we've never recovered from that.

"My biggest disappointment is taking the longer term view - do we have the right people in all of the departments to confidently exploit those that we know have got a winning record? We won't know until we have the new car on track next January, but I'm nervous."

The team preferred to highlight Michelin's increasingly apparent inferiority at this track.

This was further demonstrated at the top of the times, where Felipe Massa led fellow Bridgestone runners Jarno Trulli, Nico Rosberg and Ralf Schumacher.

Rosberg's performance was particularly notable, the German outpacing teammate Mark Webber (who only made it through with a last-gasp improvement) by a second despite this weekend marking his Suzuka debut.

Part two

Given Bridgestone's advantage, Albers surely had a shot at making it a little further up the field than usual, although Q1 still seemed out of reach.

Instead, he ended up 16th, 1.8 seconds behind his row eight partner Liuzzi, but still described the result as "fantastic".

None of the other eliminated drivers were so buoyant, and the gloom was particularly deep at McLaren. Their choice of a softer Michelin proved uncompetitive in qualifying, leaving an unwell and unhappy Kimi Raikkonen 11th, and Pedro de la Rosa 13th.

"The car didn't feel too bad, we were just too slow," said Raikkonen.

It would have been no surprise if Bridgestone-shod, qualifying ace Webber had breezed into the top ten. But he again lagged behind teammate Rosberg (this time by 0.9 seconds) and finished Q2 in 14th.

"Not good enough, not quick enough, didn't do it when it counted," Webber summarised.

For the first time in his F1 career, Robert Kubica discovered what it feels like not to contest a full hour of qualifying. He was on course to take his habitual Q3 spot when he flew off the road at Degner 2 while trying to make up time lost earlier in the lap. The Pole missed the barriers, and the elimination cut-off, taking 12th.

Meanwhile, Michael Schumacher unleashed the same kind of jaw-dropping speed that had so demoralised the opposition in final practice.

His 1:28.954 lap set a new Suzuka benchmark and was 0.9 seconds quicker than Massa could manage.

Leading Michelin runner Jenson Button was 1.3 seconds adrift in fourth, with Fernando Alonso only eighth.

Part three

Slight drizzle greeted the start of Q3, but Renault knew that they needed significantly more precipitation if they were to stop Ferrari running away with the key grid positions.

Sure enough, while Schumacher quickly took provisional pole with a 1:30.2, Alonso languished in sixth place after the first runs.

Things briefly looked up for the Spaniard as he jumped to third at the second attempt.

Schumacher immediately moved out of reach by lapping in 1:29.711, but then he was upstaged by Massa, who went 0.2 seconds quicker than his team leader and inverted the all-Ferrari front row.

This at least gave Alonso a shot at Schumacher into the first corner and the consolation that he could try and repeat his Istanbul achievements.

The comfort was fleeting, however, for in the last seconds of qualifying first Jarno Trulli and then Ralf Schumacher leapt on to the second row, pushing Alonso down to fifth, underlining Bridgestone's dominance, and giving Toyota a massive boost at their home Grand Prix.

"I have always said that if we have a good weekend and the tyre is the right one, then we are definitely heading for a podium," said Ralf, who beat his teammate by 0.05 seconds.

This also put the Toyotas comfortably ahead of the Hondas, with Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello back on row four - Button feeling the handling had been disturbed by the windy conditions, and Barrichello praising the team for hurriedly readying the spare car for him after he had struggled with the handling of his own chassis.

Nick Heidfeld and Nico Rosberg were content with ninth and tenth, neither having looked like challenging the leading octet.

The Renaults would fill row three. For a man who seemed to be helplessly watching his championship chances disappear, Alonso was impressively pragmatic.

"This was more or less the maximum result," he said. "Tomorrow, in the race, we have to believe in our consistency in the long runs and hopefully wait for a decrease in the performance of the Bridgestone.

"I think the Ferrari is too quick for us this weekend, so we try to concentrate on the Toyotas and get a podium."

Pat Symonds was equally perturbed by their arch-rivals' pace.

"That's an incredible first lap pace from the Bridgestone," he mused. "With that amount of pace, even if the degradation is a bit higher, it's going to be very, very hard (to catch them)."

Schumacher, meanwhile, had to try hard to suppress a satisfied grin as he summarised the power balance.

"We're looking strong, we're on the first row, we have the Renaults on the third row, so that's a very good starting base for tomorrow's race," he said, with a touch of understatement.

But Symonds didn't completely rule out an upset...

"We've got to be aggressive," he said, "we've got to take whatever chances are open to us..."

Qualifying results

The Race

Renault's misery looked set to increase in the opening seconds. Normally, their dynamic startline performance can be counted upon to minimise any qualifying handicaps, but in Suzuka Giancarlo Fisichella lost a place to Jenson Button, while Fernando Alonso couldn't get close to the Toyotas. Meanwhile Felipe Massa had serenely led Michael Schumacher into the First Curve.

But as Jarno Trulli looked to the outside of Ralf Schumacher under braking, Alonso grabbed the opportunity to fill the gap on the inside line and squeezed into fourth place. It wasn't much, but it was progress...

While Alonso pondered his chances of passing the second Toyota, Michael Schumacher followed Massa for just two laps before easing past into the first corner.

Although he immediately pulled out a 1.3-second lead, Schumacher was not enjoying the crushing margin of superiority that had been anticipated after Saturday. The Toyotas and Alonso remained within five seconds, and after passing Button for sixth on lap four, Fisichella was actually the fastest man on the track for a time.

Ironically it was only when he lost two seconds on the Degner rumble strip having run wide in Ralf Schumacher's dirty air that Alonso discovered just how competitive his package was in race conditions.

"I tried to really be close for the long straights and I went off and I lost nearly two seconds, but then I recovered quite quickly," Alonso said. "I realised that we were much quicker than Toyota, so we needed to overtake them."

By lap 10, the closely matched top six had dropped the rest of the pack, with the lonely Button six seconds behind Fisichella - but clear of Nick Heidfeld by the same margin.

The BMW Sauber had taken a clout from Rubens Barrichello's Honda (again) on lap 1, sending the Brazilian to the pits for a new front wing, and now had the disgruntled Kimi Raikkonen for company.

Robert Kubica had lost ground trying to get around the damaged Barrichello, and then fending off Nico Rosberg, so was already eight seconds behind his teammate. Mark Webber could not keep pace with Rosberg again, and was defending 12th from Pedro de la Rosa.

Tonio Liuzzi initially led the Red Bull-backed midfield crowd until spinning on the exit of the chicane. He delayed David Coulthard in the process, and allowed Scott Speed to the head of this queue, which also included both Spykers.

Takuma Sato had managed to get ahead of Speed and Robert Doornbos at the start, but both soon repassed him, as did Tiago Monteiro. Barrichello would also make short work (unsurprisingly given the Honda association) of both Sato and Sakon Yamamoto, who kept respectably close to his teammate at first, although Sato admitted to struggling for pace on his first set of tyres.

A dozen laps in, Alonso was given a few more reasons for optimism. First Trulli pitted, proving that Toyota's qualifying pace had once again been partly the result of 'Saturday showboating' and that they weren't such a threat in the race.

Trulli's pit visit also implied that Ralf Schumacher would stop imminently, but Alonso chose not to wait and snatched third on the inside at First Curve.

Then on the next lap, Massa pitted from second place, three laps earlier than scheduled, after Ferrari detected a slow puncture. Given that it had been developing throughout the stint, Massa had done a fine job to tag along to Schumacher. But now he rejoined between Heidfeld and Raikkonen, giving Alonso a very good chance of recovering the four seconds by which he had trailed the Ferrari before its stop.

Now Alonso could really test the Renault's capabilities. He set a new fastest lap on lap 14, then took another 0.7 seconds out of Schumacher's advantage in the first two sectors of his in lap, before emerging from the pits ahead of Heidfeld, Massa, Raikkonen. With both Toyotas - who had swapped places in the stops - behind this train, Alonso was free to chase Schumacher.

The Ferrari had the advantage of running three laps longer than Alonso, yet the gap between them was still a less-than-comfortable 5.4 seconds after both had stopped.

It would barely change during the entire middle stint, as the title rivals - not for the first time this year - matched each other tenth for tenth, lap after lap. The closest Alonso got was within 4.6 seconds as they approached a huge train of backmarkers. The largest the gap became was 5.9 seconds after Schumacher got a better run through traffic.

Schumacher would later say that he was controlling the pace - "we were quick at those moments that we wanted to be quick" - but for Alonso, the fact that the Ferrari remained within sight was hugely encouraging. His post-qualifying pessimism had long since lifted.

"I was thinking it was possible to win the race, why not?" said Alonso. "We were only halfway through the race and we were five seconds behind the Ferrari, which was a surprise for us."

Again Alonso stopped earlier during the final pit sequence - coming in on lap 35. But Schumacher pitted just one lap later, so could not extend the lead margin.

Not that it would matter in the slightest, for on Schumacher's out lap the unthinkable happened. As he approached Degner, smoke began pouring from his exhaust, signifying a devastatingly ill-timed engine failure. The apparently indestructible Ferrari had failed.

After three months in which every piece of good fortune had been cruelly nullified almost immediately, Alonso could hardly believe his eyes. He initially mistook the smoking orange-red car for a Spyker, but when he realised it was Schumacher who he was flashing past, a clenched fist in the cockpit betrayed his relief and excitement.

"Sometime I needed to recover those unlucky moments," said Alonso, doubtless thinking of the agonies and injustices of Monza.

Ferrari's hopes now rested with Massa, but the task proved beyond him. Despite later insisting that he could have won had his puncture not put him behind Heidfeld during the first pit stops, Massa was not on Alonso's pace in the second half of the race, and was struggling with tyre graining.

The Toyotas kept the lead trio just about in sight until making very early final stops on laps 29 and 30.

Trulli remained ahead of Schumacher, but struggled on his last set of tyres. Schumacher expressed his frustration over the team radio as Trulli's pace fell away by as much as three seconds per lap, yet the order did not change.

This lack of speed would prove very costly, as Fisichella, Button and Raikkonen all jumped the Toyotas during the last stops.

Raikkonen was one of the stars of the race. Long stints, very fast light fuel laps and excellent McLaren pit work meant that he gained ground at each stop and even pushed Button for fourth for a time before easing off at the end.

Although fifth place from 11th on the grid was a great result at a track with few passing places and little strategic variation, Raikkonen was unmoved by his achievement.

"It is not really good enough to be fighting for fifth place, and not what we wanted out of the weekend," he said. "Our race today was lost in qualifying yesterday."

Button was more satisfied with fourth. Having acknowledged some time ago that Ferrari and Renault were out of reach this year, he has realigned his sights accordingly. 'Best of the rest' was just fine for Button, for now...

"We just haven't quite got enough to beat the two championship contenders right now," he said, "but we will get there, trust me."

>From a Honda point of view, it didn't hurt that the Toyotas ended up sixth and seventh, although the five points that this disappointing result gave them edged the team to within one point of BMW in the battle for fifth in the constructors' championship.

They would be equal had Heidfeld not finished eighth. He confessed that his had been an "unspectacular" race, which was far from the case for his teammate Kubica.

The Pole demolished his Heidfeld's eight second advantage once he got into his stride, only to make his second trip of the weekend to the Degner gravel trap on lap 31.

He rejoined 10.4 seconds adrift of Heidfeld, yet was right back with his teammate and attacking him hard within just ten laps. Kubica never made it past, but he had still enhanced his reputation... and undermined Heidfeld's...

While tenth was a low-key result for Rosberg, he had been quicker than teammate Webber all afternoon. The struggling Australian eventually crashed out on lap 39, running wide exiting the chicane and ploughing into the tyres.

That should have allowed de la Rosa - who had been following Webber around until then - to chase down Rosberg, but the Spaniard could not manage anything like his teammate Raikkonen's rate of progress. An anonymous 11th, four seconds behind Rosberg, was not the result that de la Rosa needed on a weekend when McLaren's future driver plans remained a hot topic.

Given his early delay, 12th was a respectable result for Barrichello, whose later final stop vaulted him clear of the Red Bull crowd.

Robert Doornbos ended up being best of Dietrich Mateschitz's cars in 13th, ahead of Liuzzi, but Coulthard had led both until retiring with gearbox problems on lap 35.

A big error at Degner seven laps earlier had dropped Speed out of this battle and behind Sato. That's where he would remain until power steering problems took him into the garage on lap 47.

Speed's retirement was a shame for Super Aguri, as Sato was on course to finish ahead of both the Toro Rosso and Monteiro's Spyker, which had fallen off the pace with tyre graining in the second stint.

Sato finished a promising 11 seconds behind Liuzzi, and comfortably clear of Monteiro, and the crowd recognised the magnitude of this achievement. Rarely can a 15th place finisher have been cheered so heartily, but Sato deserved the praise.

"This is an absolutely fantastic result for the team," he said. "We could not have asked for anything more."

Teammate Yamamoto also made the finish in 17th. His pace had wilted after the first stint, and a spin at Spoon dropped him further away from the field.

As if being beaten by Super Aguri again wasn't bad enough for MF1, they also had to watch Christijan Albers retire from a promising 16th, amongst the Red Bull quartet, when a violent and unexplained failure at the rear of his car led to the right rear wheel exploding free and ripping the back of the car apart.

"I had a lot of vibration in the car but I just wanted to keep pushing because we were quite competitive," said Albers. "Then as I was starting to brake for the chicane, the rear wheel and rear wing passed me..."

It was a similarly destructive chicane incident that deposited the debris that led to Schumacher puncturing a tyre and conceding the 1998 title to Mika Hakkinen at Suzuka. Eight years on, his Japanese heartbreak could not be blamed on external factors.

While the Ferrari hierarchy puzzled over the surprise engine failure, their soon-to-ex-driver swallowed his disappointment and returned to the garage to console his mechanics.

In a total reversal of the Shanghai scenes, it was therefore the Ferrari pit wall that watched in stony silence as a victorious Alonso scampered around parc ferme, leapt into the arms of his team, and beamed throughout the podium ceremony.

It was when Alonso launched into a new selection of triumphant poses and dances that the length of his victory drought sunk in. His quirky celebrations had been such a feature of the opening rounds, yet it had been three-and-a-half months (and seven races) since he had last had cause to gyrate atop his car.

Sadly, not all the Renault team could join in the jubilation. Fisichella was mourning the loss of a lifelong friend who had succumbed to illness three days before the race, so the tearful Italian stepped away from the post-race celebrations.

He did, however, offer fulsome congratulations to his teammate, who seemed stunned by his change in circumstances. The title was starting to look like a long shot for Alonso two hours earlier, Now he could head for the final race ten points clear, needing just eighth place to clinch his second title, regardless of Schumacher's position.

"I think it's a little bit too early to realise what happened today," said Alonso.

"This victory is even better because it was a complete surprise. We never thought at any moment yesterday or this morning that we could fight for victory."

A happy Fernando Alonso and upset Giancarlo Fisichella on the podium © XPB/LAT

Schumacher seemed to instantly reconcile himself to the fact that he will almost certainly leave F1 as a defeated title contender. While Ferrari pledged to keep fighting, Schumacher calmly acknowledged that his final championship battle was effectively decided.

"I really believe the championship is over," he said.

"We know Fernando only needs one point and we know what a good driver he is so it should not be a problem for him.

"We will go to Brazil giving the best we can but that will be more for the constructors' championship."

Race results

53 laps; 307.573km;
Weather: Sunny.

Classified:

Pos  Driver        Team                      Time
 1.  Alonso        Renault              (M)  1h23:53.413
 2.  Massa         Ferrari              (B)  +    16.151
 3.  Fisichella    Renault              (M)  +    23.953
 4.  Button        Honda                (M)  +    34.101
 5.  Raikkonen     McLaren-Mercedes     (M)  +    43.596
 6.  Trulli        Toyota               (B)  +    46.717
 7.  R.Schumacher  Toyota               (B)  +    48.869
 8.  Heidfeld      BMW-Sauber           (M)  +  1:16.095
 9.  Kubica        BMW-Sauber           (M)  +  1:16.932
10.  Rosberg       Williams-Cosworth    (B)  +     1 lap
11.  de la Rosa    McLaren-Mercedes     (M)  +     1 lap
12.  Barrichello   Honda                (M)  +     1 lap
13.  Doornbos      Red Bull-Ferrari     (M)  +     1 lap
14.  Liuzzi        Toro Rosso-Cosworth  (M)  +     1 lap
15.  Sato          Super Aguri-Honda    (B)  +     1 lap
16.  Monteiro      Spyker MF1-Toyota    (B)  +    2 laps
17.  Yamamoto      Super Aguri-Honda    (B)  +    3 laps
18.  Speed         Toro Rosso-Cosworth  (M)  +    5 laps

Fastest lap: Alonso, 1:32.676

Not classified/retirements:

Driver        Team                      On lap
Webber        Williams-Cosworth    (B)    40
M.Schumacher  Ferrari              (B)    37
Coulthard     Red Bull-Ferrari     (M)    36
Albers        Spyker MF1-Toyota    (B)    22


World Championship standings, round 16:

Drivers:                    Constructors:             
 1.  Alonso       126        1.  Renault              195
 2.  M.Schumacher 116        2.  Ferrari              186
 3.  Massa         70        3.  McLaren-Mercedes     105
 4.  Fisichella    69        4.  Honda                 78
 5.  Raikkonen     61        5.  BMW-Sauber            36
 6.  Button        50        6.  Toyota                35
 7.  Barrichello   28        7.  Red Bull-Ferrari      16
 8.  Montoya       26        8.  Williams-Cosworth     11
 9.  Heidfeld      23        9.  Toro Rosso-Cosworth    1
10.  R.Schumacher  20
11.  de la Rosa    18
12.  Trulli        15
13.  Coulthard     14
14.  Webber         7
15.  Villeneuve     7
16.  Kubica         6
17.  Rosberg        4
18.  Klien          2
19.  Liuzzi         1

Team-by-Team

The team are disconsolate when Michelin struggle for pace in practice and qualifying, leaving Alonso and Fisichella on the third row, utterly outpaced by Ferrari. But the tyre disadvantage all but vanishes in the race. Alonso immediately passes Trulli, jumps both Ralf Schumacher and Massa in the first pit stops, then edges ever closer to Michael Schumacher before the Ferrari's engine failure hands the race win and an almost certain title to the Spaniard. Fisichella loses a place to Button at the start, quickly regains it, leapfrogs the Toyotas in the pits and takes a poignant third, just days after the death of a close friend.

Verdict: An unexpected revival, and an overdue change of fortune.

An incorrect tyre choice is suspected after Raikkonen and de la Rosa end up 11th and 13th on the grid, despite feeling nothing obvious wrong with their cars. While Raikkonen surges forward in the race and uses sharp strategy and strong pace to progress to fifth, de la Rosa gains little ground and finishes 11th.

Verdict: Poor qualifying might have cost Raikkonen a podium; underwhelming de la Rosa did not exactly silence the Lewis Hamilton advocates...

Schumacher and Massa dominate practice and qualifying by a staggering margin. The Brazilian takes pole and leads the start, before handing the place to Schumacher after three laps. He then loses ground when a puncture forces a slightly early pit stop and leaves him in traffic. Schumacher maintains a sufficient gap over Alonso until his engine fails after his second pit stop. That at least elevates Massa to second, but Ferrari's title hopes are now remote in the extreme.

Verdict: Hard not to invoke the cliché about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory...

Excitement after qualifying as Schumacher and Trulli fill row two on the team's home ground. Alonso gets between them on the first lap, but they stay in contention until making very early second stops. Trulli in particular then struggles for speed, and Schumacher is trapped behind him. They lose three places as a consequence and finish sixth and seventh.

Verdict: To qualify on row two but get beaten by a McLaren that started on row six raises serious questions about Toyota's strategy.

Rosberg quickly gets to grips with Suzuka and - helped by the Bridgestone advantage - qualifies 10th. He finishes there too, losing out to Kubica at the start and then struggling with some tyre graining, but does beat de la Rosa's McLaren and outshine his teammate Webber. The Australian starts 14th and understeers into the wall at the final corner while running 12th on lap 39.

Verdict: A reminder of Rosberg's talent, but an unusually shaky weekend for his teammate.

Button and Barrichello share row four - perhaps better than the latter expected after struggling with handling problems and switching to the spare car. Barrichello's race is ruined when he clips Heidfeld on the first lap and has to pit for a new nose section. Swift repairs, good strategy and strong pace help him recover to 12th. Button loses an early battle with Fisichella, but passes the Toyotas in the pit stops and later fends off Raikkonen. He finishes fourth.

Verdict: The maximum they could hope for given Barrichello's incident and the leading teams' untouchable pace.

Coulthard is furious after qualifying 17th, a place ahead of Doornbos. The race is only marginally better. They battle with the Toro Rossos and Spykers for 14th initially. Coulthard loses ground early on when Liuzzi spins across his path, but works his way back to the front of the group before losing fourth gear and retiring. Doornbos makes the finish in 13th.

Verdict: It's a long way from row nine to the podium - does Coulthard have a point about over-reliance on Newey's genius?

Heidfeld qualifies ninth while a major error at Degner leaves Kubica 12th - his first time outside the top ten. A long first stint sees Heidfeld as high as third before pitting, but in the middle of the race he comes under big pressure from the charging Kubica. The Pole loses 10 seconds with a trip through the gravel, yet soon recovers the ground and pushes Heidfeld all the way to the flag. The German takes eighth, but it's his rookie teammate who catches the eye most.

Verdict: Overall form a disappointment after recent successes, but Kubica continues to prove his talent.

Albers qualifies 16th, but Monteiro is only 21st after problems with the front end of his car in Q1. Both drivers spend the first stint challenging the Red Bulls and believe their package is very competitive. But Albers retires dramatically when his rear suspension shatters shortly after his first stop. Monteiro runs the longest first stint of the entire field, but any advance gained is negated by his lack of speed on the next set of tyres, and he drops behind Sato to finish 17th.

Verdict: Promising early performance overshadowed, as Albers' spectacular retirement is the talking point.

A reasonable qualifying effort puts Liuzzi 15th, ahead of the 'senior' Red Bulls, while Speed has traffic issues and starts 19th. They spend the race in the thick of the midfield action with Red Bull and Spyker. Both drivers cost themselves positions with significant mistakes - Liuzzi spinning at the chicane on lap two, and Speed going off at Degner on lap 27. The American later retires with power steering failure, while Liuzzi takes 14th.

Verdict: Given Toro Rosso's relative lack of pace, it's their drivers' mistakes that are getting attention - and at the moment, the errors are coming too often.

Sato beats Monteiro to 20th on the grid, but Yamamoto spins and stalls before he can set a time. In the opening stint they are quickly shuffled to the back and drift ever further behind. But Sato has the pace to challenge the midfielders, and as others fade he finds himself in 15th, ahead of a Toro Rosso and a Spyker. Yamamoto has some promising moments but also spins at Spoon. On the plus side, he reaches the chequered flag again, albeit in last place.

Verdict: Still far from the points, but plenty of progress to celebrate.

Lap-by-Lap

Lap 1: Felipe Massa makes a clean start from his second pole position of the season to lead team-mate Michael Schumacher away.

The Ferraris are 0.7s apart by the end of the lap. Ralf Schumacher holds down third, but Fernando Alonso gets ahead of Jarno Trulli at Turn One to wrest fourth. Jenson Button vaults past Giancarlo Fisichella off the line to lie sixth.

Felipe Massa leads the start of the Japanese Grand Prix © XPB/LAT

Nick Heidfeld settles into eighth ahead of Kimi Raikkonen, Rubens Barrichello, Robert Kubica, Nico Rosberg, Mark Webber, Pedro de la Rosa, Vitantonio Liuzzi, David Coulthard, Scott Speed, Christijan Albers, Takuma Sato, Robert Doornbos, Tiago Monteiro and Sakon Yamamoto.

Lap 2: Barrichello pits for a fresh nose. Doornbos passes Sato for 19th.

Lap 3: M Schumacher breezes past Massa on the approach to Turn One. He leads by 1.0s at the end of the lap. Liuzzi spins at Turn 18 and loses places to Coulthard, Speed and Albers. Monteiro passes Sato.

Lap 4: Speed passes Coulthard. Doornbos passes Liuzzi.

Lap 5: Fisichella wrests sixth from Button.

Lap 6: M Schumacher continues to lead by 1.0s. R Schumacher is 1.7s behind Massa. Alonso is a further 0.6s adrift... and 3.5s behind the leader.

Lap 9: Alonso runs wide and drops more than a second. Barrichello relegates Yamamoto to 22nd - and last - place.

Lap 10: Doornbos passes Albers for 16th. Barrichello moves ahead of local favourite Sato.

Lap 12: Trulli pits from fifth.

Lap 13: Alonso passes R Schumacher for third. The German pits at the lap's end - as does Massa. The title contenders are now first and second, 5.4s apart.

Lap 14: Alonso posts fastest lap: 1m32.676s. He trails by 4.6s. Fisichella pits.

Lap 15: Alonso pits and rejoins ahead of Massa. Rosberg peels in, too.

Lap 16: Button, temporarily second, pits.

Lap 17: Yet to stop, M Schumacher leads Alonso by 28.3s.

Lap 18: The leader pits, as do Heidfeld, third, and Coulthard, 15th.

Lap 19: M Schumacher leads Alonso by 5.4s.

Christijan Albers suffers a dramatic failure on the Spyker-Midland © XPB/LAT

Lap 20: Kubica, Webber, de la Rosa, Liuzzi and Yamamoto all pit. Albers suffers a destructive rear suspension failure on the chicane approach and sprays debris across the track.

Lap 21: Doornbos pits.

Lap 22: Raikkonen pits from fourth. Barrichello makes his first scheduled stop.

Lap 23: Speed and Sato pit.

Lap 24: With most of the stops done, M Schumacher leads Alonso by 5.1s. Massa is a distant third from Trulli, R Schumacher, Fisichella, Button, Raikkonen, Heidfeld, Kubica, Rosberg and Webber.

Lap 25: Monteiro makes the last of the first scheduled stops.

Lap 27: Alonso, closing, is within 4.2s. M Schumacher is catching a gaggle of Red Bull-backed midfielders.

Lap 29: Trulli pits for a second time. Speed spins at Turn Nine and drops behind Liuzzi.

Lap 30: R Schumacher comes in for fuel and tyres.

Lap 32: Running 10th, Kubica runs wide at Turn Nine. He loses several seconds but no places.

Lap 33: Fourth-placed Fisichella pits and emerges sixth.

Lap 34: Rosberg and Liuzzi pit.

Lap 35: Alonso and Massa pit.

Lap 36: The leader comes in for fuel and tyres. He rejoins well ahead of Alonso. Coulthard retires.

Lap 37: M Schumacher's engine blows up. A 92nd F1 victory would have equalled the combined tallies of Alain Prost and Ayrton Senna: that will have to wait. Alonso leads. Button and Kubica pit.

Fernando Alonso wins the Japanese Grand Prix © XPB/LAT

Lap 38: Alonso is 8.7s clear of Massa. Webber pits.

Lap 39: Webber crashes coming onto the pit straight.

Lap 40: De la Rosa pits.

Lap 41: Raikkonen pits.

Lap 42: Alonso leads Massa by 10.2s. Fisichella is third from Button, Raikkonen, Trulli, R Schumacher, Heidfeld, Kubica, Rosberg and de la Rosa. The rest are lapped.

Lap 47: Kubica has closed to within 0.6s of eighth-placed team-mate Heidfeld in the closest on-track contest. Alonso is 14.0s clear of Massa. Rosberg is now the last unlapped runner, in 10th. De la Rosa, Barrichello, Doornbos, Liuzzi, Sato, Speed, Monteiro and the twice-lapped Yamamoto complete the order.

Lap 48: Yamamoto spins at Turn 14.

Lap 49: Speed pits to retire.

Lap 53: Alonso scores his first victory since Canada to open a 10-point lead over M Schumacher with one race to go. To take the title, the German needs to win in Brazil and hope Alonso fails to score. Massa is second, 16.1 sec in arrears. Fisichella, Button, Raikkonen, Trulli, R Schumacher and Heidfeld complete the scorers.