The Canadian GP inside line

The evidence shows that Ferrari's race pace is likely to prevail almost everywhere, but I've a feeling that in qualifying at least, Michael will face a very strong challenge from BAR Honda.

The Circuit Gilles Villeneuve shares certain characteristics with Imola, where Jenson Button took the pole. It has a lot of chicanes and even more emphasis on heavy braking/strong traction, areas where the BAR/Michelin and Renault/Michelin combinations perform well. As well, there are no flowing, quick corners, a particular Ferrari/Bridgestone strength. Add in the fact that Canada is a power track and that everyone is highly impressed with Honda at the moment, and it all adds up to careful study of those BAR qualifying odds.

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Jenson Button is 4-1 for the pole and, even if that's not overly generous, I'd still jump at it. But the real interesting one is team mate Takuma Sato at 12-1. This is excellent value. Sato was tremendous at Nurburgring, his confidence is up and the approach demanded by Montreal - perhaps a higher aggression/finesse ratio than other places - could suit Taku better than Jenson. Cover both BARs.

Sato's race odds are also good, 20-1 for a win (one-fifth of the odds for an each way bet) and he's 7-2 for a podium. Button is 6-1 for the win.

Given that Williams and McLaren will get stronger in the second part of the year, but not yet, BAR is still a safe and good bet, especially here. I'd go with them almost exclusively this weekend, so good are some of the odds. It's also worth considering some money on Giancarlo Fisichella for points at 11-4.

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