The 2007 United States GP Preview

A week after the maelstrom that was Canada, the Formula One circus heads to the States, where three veteran protagonists will be looking to close the gap to Hamilton... needless top say, after his first win, the rookie is not expected to make life easy.

Analysis

Something of an anomaly on the Formula One calendar, the Indianapolis Grand Prix circuit usually throws up some surprises. The final corner and main straight provide the single longest full throttle drag on the calendar, requiring low drag to maintain top speed and prevent drafting by those who would overtake.

On the other hand, the tight, twisty infield rewards downforce and is important for laptimes, getting the balance right to be quick in qualifying without being vulnerable on the straight is a game of chicken. The teams will be checking each others' top speeds and removing downforce to stay in touch, attempting not to be too compromised on the infield.

Besides a good engine and efficient aerodynamics, the drivers are going to have to look after their tyres, or they are going to be constrained on strategy. Being able to go long on the first stint here is particularly wise, as there is a significant chance that the safety car will make an appearance - there is something about approaching that first corner at speed that seems to invite cars to arrive side by side; there is not room to continue that in to the second corner, even if both turn in to the first effectively.

Flashback

In 2006, it was a bad weekend for the otherwise dominant Renault tyre manufacturer: this became clearly evident on Saturday in practice and underlined in qualifying. Ferrari took a comfortable pole, Schumacher leading Massa by half a second, and the Brazilian a comfortable half second faster than the leading Michelin runner, Fisichella, who was third in his Renault. Barrichello led the closely packed Alonso, Villeneuve and Button, with Ralf Schumacher a decent eighth ahead of Raikkonen's McLaren.

If Bridgestone looked strong on Saturday, there was no doubt on Sunday. From the outset, the Ferraris pulled away at the front, though Massa moved ahead of his teammate in to turn one. Alonso flew off the line, passing Barrichello and looking to go around the outside of Schumacher in to the first corner, but settled for third when Schumacher turned wide in turn two. There was a lot more going on behind the leaders, though...

Klien out-braked the Midlands in to turn one, but hit Mark Webber's Williams at the apex, launching it high enough to damage the suspension on landing; meanwhile, he span out and was collected by Montagny: the Midlands, Liuzzi and Sato bounced around each other and on to the grass as they avoided the carnage.

Meanwhile, Raikkonen braked early in to turn two as he handled traffic, catching out Montoya who ran in to the back of the car, sending both sideways; Heidfeld was outside Raikkonen, resulting in wheel to wheel contact that sent the BMW Sauber rolling across the gravel trap, whilst Montoya hit Button, sending the Honda in to Speed's Toro Rosso.

The carnage resulted in a five lap stint behind the safety car as the debris was cleaned up. At the restart, Massa comfortably led his teammate as Fisichella challenged Alonso; Ralf Schumacher successfully slipped inside Villeneuve for sixth behind Barrichello. Sato attempted the same manoeuvre on Monteiro with less success, as the cars came together and took themselves out of the race.

Alonso struggled to contain Fisichella, who eventually passed on lap 14. Meanwhile, Barrichello, Ralf Schumacher and Villeneuve tried to close him down; meanwhile, Trulli (who had started from the pitlane and avoided all carnage) was making great strides, and worked up to Villeneuve's tail.

At the front, Schumacher stopped on lap 29, set some spectacular laps and assumed the lead from Massa when the Brazilian stopped - conveniently suffering clutch drag as he pulled out of the box. The Renault stopped too, seeing Trulli move ahead - his one stop strategy working well.

BMW Sauber's remaining car stopped on lap 24, seeing an engine let go on Villeneuve. Fisichella drove hard to pull out enough advantage that he could make his second stop, just returning ahead of Trulli, and Ralf Schumacher moved ahead of Alonso, though he ended up parking on lap 62 when a wheel bearing failed.

Pos  Driver        Team                      Time
1.  M.Schumacher  Ferrari              (B)  1h34:35.199
2.  Massa         Ferrari              (B)  +     7.984
3.  Fisichella    Renault              (M)  +    16.595
4.  Trulli        Toyota               (B)  +    23.604
5.  Alonso        Renault              (M)  +    28.410
6.  Barrichello   Honda                (M)  +    36.516
7.  Coulthard     Red Bull-Ferrari     (M)  +     1 lap
8.  Liuzzi        Toro Rosso-Cosworth  (M)  +     1 lap

Fastest race lap: M.Schumacher, 1:12.719

Qualifying best: M.Schumacher, 1:10.636

Weather

Although the basic report is for a partly cloudy weekend with temperatures in the low nineties, there is a distinct chance that isolated thunderstorms could make the running very interesting on Saturday. Relatively low winds and steady humidity should help the teams develop a decent set-up, so a wet weather interlude might help shake up the grid and keep the race interesting.

Strategy

With harder tyres this year, thanks to the single manufacturer, the strategies should be fairly straightforward. Two stops is optimal, but only if the driver is able to maintain a good pace - but the more time the safety car spends on track, the more it plays to the single stoppers.

As has often been the case this year, a single stop should be good for moving up the grid to score points, but not for winning. Three stops might also be exciting if the driver is able to pass consistently - getting stuck in traffic, particularly behind a single stopper, would be ruinous.

Conclusions

The confusion of Canada seemed to hide the performance of the cars quite effectively as they completed the race distance with four safety car periods to confuse the issue. Whilst safety cars might be a feature this weekend ahead, outright pace is more likely to illustrate the true winner here.

Hamilton, on a high, is arguably favourite, with Alonso and the Ferrari drivers quick enough to keep him honest. Behind the leading outfits, Red Bull are threatening to take on the 'best of the rest' sport, which might squeeze them out of the points.

Behind these leading teams, things are more confusing. BMW Sauber really do seem to be 'best of the test' with Red Bull and others snapping at their heels.

This race is traditionally exciting: with safety cars expected, any team that read the conditions best and succeeds in taking advantage will be on the podium.

A Lap of Montreal with Pedro de la Rosa

"The Indianapolis Motor Speedway is a very good track for overtaking. It is possibly one of the best circuits, at which if you have a quick car you can overtake easily braking into Turn One. Here you have an extremely long straight which starts from Turn 11 on the exit, a second gear corner where you quickly upshift from third through to seventh and you are full throttle for a long time, over 23 seconds.

"So if your car is quick and you have good traction coming out of Turn 11 then overtaking is easy braking into Turn One. It is not one of my favourite tracks, basically as I have never been able finish a race here. There is a big difference between the straight, which is very high speed, and the in-field, which is all slow corners.

"It doesn't have the rhythm and flow of some other circuits. It is quite tricky as well, as the entire infield, especially corners like Turns Seven, Eight, Nine and 10 are all very low speed. They are pretty much first gear corners, especially Nine and 10, where you virtually just have to kill the speed of the car and run all over the kerbs as much as you can.

"However the important thing is that the spectators can have a good time here as the qualifying is not as important as it is in Monaco."

Team by Team

McLaren Mercedes

It was a strange weekend for McLaren in Canada - with the safety car periods mixing up the grid behind the leader, Alonso getting overtaken by a Super Aguri and Hamilton winning his first race, there is little doubt that the race at least will live on in memory for quite some time.

Having been comfortably the best package in Montreal, there is little reason to see McLaren struggle in Indianapolis a week later. Ferrari were probably not as far off the pace as it seemed last weekend, so a close race is in prospect, particularly if the marque is able to make better use of their tyres.

With momentum currently leaning their way, McLaren would probably be very unhappy coming away with anything less than a win.

1. Fernando Alonso: after a difficult and off weekend, Alonso is headed to a place that has simply brought him no luck in the past. Having only finished one race (last year he came fifth) there is little doubt that he is traditionally slower than his teammates here over a race distance.

2. Lewis Hamilton: with confidence rising as he comes off the back of his first win, Hamilton is going to be hard to contain over the weekend ahead. The Briton has demonstrated he is a solid racer with excellent speed for qualifying, so he will certainly be a threat for the race win.

Objectives: get both cars on the podium.

Renault

After seeing Fisichella disqualified in Canada for exiting the pitlane under a red light, the team did a nice job of recovering the weekend by getting Kovalainen up to fourth, despite starting last. All told, it goes to show that the team are still capable of putting together a decent performance, and are particularly good at keeping their heads when those around are losing theirs.

Of course, repeating the showing this weekend is going to be a difficult proposition: with McLaren, Ferrari and BMW all expecting to tie up the first six places, getting a good result is going to require some great work from the team, from inventive strategy to faultless pitstops if they are to make an impression: they are unlikely to be racing on a par with Ferrari this time out!

3. Giancarlo Fisichella: when he has finished in Indianapolis, Fisichella has done so in the points - even in his Jordan days. Although Renault are not showing their form from recent years, there is no doubt that he will be looking for a decent finish this time out, too.

4. Heikki Kovalainen: credit is due for a faultless exhibition in the Canada race, so it would come as little surprise to discover that Kovalainen's confidence is at an all-time high, and he puts on another show in the States. Despite being overshadowed by his teammate for most of the season to date, the rookie is clearly capable of a decent turn of speed.

Objectives: get both cars in to Q3 and thence to finish in the points.

Ferrari

A surprise win last season, when Bridgestone actually managed to steal a march on Michelin, was a highlight of the Ferrari season. Massa's second place was lost to the celebration of Schumacher's fifth win at the circuit, but both drivers looked very strong all weekend.

This year, Canada was again a problem circuit for the team - they were not helped by Massa being disqualified for leaving the pits against a red light, or Raikkonen getting debris lodged in his front wing, but the bottom line was that they were not only not as fast as McLaren, they positively struggled to look good.

Which is not to say that they will suffer the same abysmal weekend in Indianapolis. Even if they struggle against McLaren, the team will still expect to be the second best outfit and come away with a podium finish.

5. Felipe Massa: having given Schumacher a run for his money in recent years at Indianapolis, Massa has to be expecting to put on a good show this year - with at least a podium finish in mind, should McLaren prove to have a better package.

6. Kimi Raikkonen: Indianapolis has not been kind to Raikkonen, who has only finished two of the six races he has started there - though he did finish second in 2003. The Finn is going to be looking for better luck this season; should he make the finish, then a good points finish is on the cards, though it will be interesting to see if he can gain an upper hand on Massa.

Objectives: aiming to win - but won't be unhappy with a podium and damage limitation...

Honda

Another anonymous showing from Honda in Canada was disappointing: considering the difficulties, there is no doubt that the outfit should have been able to get a car into the points. However, failures on the grid and running drivers too low on fuel to hold on for a pitstop in the event of a safety car takes its toll.

The team have been working on improving the package, and looked good enough in Monaco that it was believable when they said a decent step forward had been taken. That was not so evident in Montreal, so it would not be surprising to see them still comfortably off the pace in the States. Perhaps another mayhem strewn race would allow them to make the most of others misfortune and sneak a car into the points...

Then again, last year they had a difficult weekend in Canada before heading to Indianapolis, where Barrichello scored a couple of points!

7. Jenson Button: with an Indianapolis record that shows five non-finishes from seven attempts, the Briton has to be hoping for an upturn in fortune this year. There is little hope that the car is going to be much better, but at least there is a chance he'll get off the grid with a complete gearbox...

8. Rubens Barrichello: having raced for Ferrari, Barrichello arrives with a very good record in the States, including three second place finishes and a win in 2002 - he even scored last year, which is going to be a difficult act to follow. That said, the Brazilian is very quick, understands the tyres and has shown surprisingly good pace at times; although it is going to be tough to score points, if there is enough mayhem on track, he is quite likely to sneak back into the top eight.

Objectives: get both cars to the finish.

BMW Sauber

An excellent performance by Heidfeld in Canada saw 'Quick Nick' on the second step of the podium - tantalisingly close to the top, but an outstanding effort that was understandably overshadowed by the spectacular accident that Kubica suffered. Credit where it is due, though: the car proved a safe environment for the driver, who might even be fit to race this weekend.

Talking of which, the team have been looking good in their medium-low downforce settings, which should translate well for Indianapolis. They have a great package, slippery aerodynamics, a powerful engine and great balance, which is going to be vital for being quick on both the infield and main straight. Points are undoubtedly going to be on the cards, but they are probably hoping to get on the podium again, too.

9. Nick Heidfeld: having qualified third in Canada, Heidfeld has to be looking for another top drawer effort on Saturday, with a view to giving the team a chance of scoring another podium; considering his performances so far this season, Ferrari and McLaren are all to aware that any of their drivers having an off day are likely to finish behind him.

10. Robert Kubica: having come through the huge impact of his Canada accident with only a mild concussion and sprained ankle, young Kubica is expected to head to the States in the hope of racing, though that decision will not be made until Thursday. The Pole is keen, and if he races it is eminently likely that his confidence will not be adversely impacted - though he will probably struggle to match his teammate. Of course, if he is not running, then the team have to decide whether which of their test drivers to put in the car: neither would be expected to keep up with Heidfeld.

Objectives: get both cars in to Q3 and in the points.

Toyota

The Canada weekend did bring Toyota a point, but it seems to have raised more questions than answers. Trulli's suspension failures on Friday led the team to change the set-up on the car and avoid the kerbs for the duration. Indy doesn't have the same problem, but the banked turn does provide some interesting stresses of its own. The team are claiming they will not have a problem this time out, but there is a question mark over the dangers of that corner in particular, especially since Schumacher has been involved in a huge accident from suspension failure in that spot.

The team have a fairly good history here, with Trulli providing some good results in the past: provided they do not have to compromise the set-up in order to protect the suspension, they must be optimistic that this will be able to perform well again, and shoot for a points finish.

11. Ralf Schumacher: provided he is confident in the reliability of the suspension, Schumacher might be able to put together a decent performance, but history is against him. In seven outings, he finished once, sixteenth in 2002 for Williams. Every other start has ended with car or driver failure...

12. Jarno Trulli: the 2005 Indianapolis pole sitter has always gone well here, finishing five times from six starts in fourth place; despite there being no tyre related advantage this year to boost performance, Trulli's affinity for the place should see him pick up some performance and shoot for a points finish.

Objectives: get at least one car in to Q3 and the points.

Red Bull Racing

It must have seemed like a long race for Red Bull, who came close to scoring points, but ended up with nothing. A gearbox failure on one hand and rough luck on the timing of the safety car periods left them just outside the points. On the positive side, they had good pace in qualifying and the race, so they are clearly in good shape, despite their luck issues.

For Indianapolis, where there are fewer kerbs to be ridden, the relatively smooth circuit is a boon: there will be less concern over the reliability of the gearbox, which seems fragile. With the cars more likely to make the finish, they should be able to concentrate on beating the likes of Renault, so aiming for points should definitely be a target for the weekend.

14. David Coulthard: despite being regularly outqualified by his teammate, Coulthard continues to look good on race day - and he has a decent record in the States, where he has always scored points when he has finished.

15. Mark Webber: in contrast to his teammate, Webber has a terrible record at Indianapolis, where he has never finished a race - this year, he has a package that ought at least to be reliable enough to go the distance, and probably end in the points, too.

Objectives: qualify in the top ten - and come away with points...

Williams

It was a bit of a mixed weekend for Williams in Canada. In one respect, they handled the mayhem well to finally return to the podium, which was positive, but on the other, a poor call with stopping during the closed pit did not help.

Last year, the team saw themselves fail to score despite only nine cars finishing - they simply did not have the performance to get the job done. This year, although the front of the grid is tighter, they are arriving with a far stronger package and drivers who are capable of scoring points. Given a little disruption, there is every chance they might see both cars in the points...

16. Nico Rosberg: with a perfect record for outqualifying his teammate and regularly bringing the car home in the points, Rosberg has undoubtedly proved his worth at Williams - what is more, he has simply been getting on with the job without the fanfare that others have received. It would be no surprise to see him again qualify in the top ten and finish in the points.

17. Alex Wurz: although it took a while to get some results, Wurz justified Williams faith by scoring in Monaco before making a single stop work to claim a podium place in Canada - going a long way to remove doubt and pressure. Needless to say, another point-scoring weekend would be welcome by the team.

Objectives: get both cars in to Q3 and scoring points.

Toro Rosso

Inexperience told for Toro Rosso in Canada, as both drivers made mistakes that took them out of the race - which was unfortunate as the team were actually having a half way decent race, putting together a respectable showing.

Last year, they were able to make the most of the carnage to score the final point when Liuzzi passed Rosberg before the end; unless there is similar carnage this year, it seems unlikely they can repeat the feat, despite having a better package: the competition at the front is intense, and they are likely to struggle to match the senior outfit, let along score a top ten finish.

If nothing else, looking to get both cars to the finish would help collect the data they need to improve the package, or at least, work on improving their understanding of the car as it over the full race distance.

18. Vitantonio Liuzzi: a moment of carelessness in Canada saw an accident from Liuzzi, who ended his race in the wall. It is precisely the wrong race to be making mistakes - these are the teams best opportunities for scoring points, which means that the driver has to complete the distance. A better performance this weekend would be useful.

19. Scott Speed: in front of his home crowd, the pressure will be on Speed to show well - though it should not be too challenging to improve his performance over last year, considering his race finished with an early collision. Qualifying has been a struggle for Speed this year; perhaps a little support from his fan base will help him to redress that balance.

Objectives: get in to Q2 and both cars to the finish.

Spyker

With the Canadian Grand Prix finally behind them, the Spyker team have to be looking forward to a change of pace in the States: it is bad enough that they are struggling for pace without failing to finish races. In order to score points, however, the team and drivers are going to have to stop making mistakes: on the positive side, they are gaining plenty of experience now, so perhaps they are going to be in a strong position to capitalise in the future.

It will be interesting to see what opportunities present themselves over the weekend ahead. With a little more luck than last year (where neither car got far in to the race) they will be able to avoid trouble and run to the finish: better still, there is likely to be opportunity to capitalise on others misfortune, provided they can steer clear of problems themselves!

20. Christijan Albers: although not as quick as his teammate, Albers does at least have a little more consistency when it comes to staying on track - provided the car stays together, he is likely to finish the race. Question is, how often will there be sufficient carnage on the grid to do so in the points.

21. Adrian Sutil: blindingly quick, but prone to falling off the track, Sutil is earning a reputation for the time he spends playing in the gravel traps - though it is worth remembering that Sato and Massa both started with a similar affinity for kitty litter.

Objectives: get the cars to the finish...

Super Aguri

Last year, the team were not well placed to take advantage of the mayhem and score their first point; this year, things are very different, having done precisely that in Canada: Davidson ran as high as third before hitting a marmot and having to stop for repairs whilst Sato's well timed move to soft tyres allowed him to pass the reigning world champion to take sixth and three points, on merit!

It seems unlikely that there will be quite so much opportunity in the weekend ahead, but the team are clearly firing on all cylinders and should at least prove troublesome to the midfield as they are well poised to capitalise on mistakes, at least.

22. Takuma Sato: after such an impressive race in Canada, driving hard and making the most of opportunity, Sato clearly illustrated his potential - so he must be arriving in the States with a view to repeating the experience.

23. Anthony Davidson: having had the potential to score points until he hit the marmot, Davidson continues to show plenty of talent as he races for Super Aguri - he is delivering what the team ask, providing solid and timely feedback and being a good team player. Perhaps a little more fortune would see him come away with points in this race.

Objectives: score another point.

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