The 2007 Malaysian GP Preview

After a straightforward victory for Raikkonen and Ferrari in Australia, the circus is heading to Malaysia, where their engines are all headed for a second weekend at what promises to be a hot race...

Analysis

Last season, the hot climate contributed to a lot of engines being changed out ahead of their second race, sending five drivers back down the order after qualifying. This season, with more experience of the engine longevity issues, there should be less of an issue, but any team that is marginal on cooling is going to be in for a tough weekend.

Don't be surprised to see some holes cut in bodywork if the temperatures rise above the predicted 95 degrees: with the engines spending around 70 percent of the lap at full throttle, it is going to be critical to get cooling right. With a couple of long straights and big stops, braking and traction are important. Efficient aerodynamics is a must to maintain straight line speed without compromising cornering.

Besides the equipment, the heat and humidity also impact the drivers and team personnel. Fitness is paramount, as the climate rapidly saps strength and concentration, and a couple of seconds lapse during a pitstop usually costs places, so that is clearly going to be a focus.

Although overtaking is possible here, the teams all came out to test for four days, which traditionally means that they can be expected to be largely dialled in for the weekend ahead: traditionally, that means the teams encounter few surprises, leading to processional races.

Flashback

In 2006, Fisichella was right on the money, putting the Renault on pole ahead of the very quick Honda of Button; Fisichella's world champion teammate Alonso languished in eighth after a pitstop error saw the team put way too fuel much in the tank, horribly compromising qualifying and race.

Rosberg built on the promise of his first race weekend by qualifying his Williams fourth, ahead of a heavy Schumacher and Ferrari and his qualifying maestro teammate Webber. Montoya led Raikkonen in the upper order and the qualifying session also saw Ralf Schumacher's engine expire in part two, relegating him to the back of the grid after the engine change ... with Michael Schumacher, Coulthard, Barrichello and Massa dropping ten places after replacing engines before the session.

On race day, Rosberg was slow off the line and squeezed his teammate - leaving an opening for a very fast starting Alonso, who passed the McLarens to slip around the outside and into third place at the corner. Webber pushed past Rosberg for fourth with Montoya pouncing on Raikkonen who lost momentum. Unfortunately, that pass also left Rosberg surprised in to braking too late, and Klien missed the corner, running in to Raikkonen and ending both drivers' races. Heidfeld capitalised best, moving up from twelfth to sixth in the confusion.

The race started to unfold with Fisichella moving away from Button in the front, ahead of Alonso, Webber and Montoya - the McLaren driver losing two seconds a lap due to graining tyres. Rosberg was recovering well from his poor start, but the engine let go after seven laps; Webber also stopped shortly after with a hydraulics leak.

Strategically, Button's race was in trouble when he came out behind the slow - but yet to stop - Montoya after the first round of pit stops; Fisichella was able to keep the pressure on and pull away, while the over-laden Alonso was clearly on the pace after his first stop, and was closing in on the Honda when it was again stuck behind Montoya during the second round of stops.

Little else changed, although Schumacher steadily made places from the back of the field on a three stop race, with Heidfeld's engine expiring just before he reached the Sauber; Massa's single stop strategy saw him out of sequence, which was strategically useful for making places from 21st, but ensured he never really raced anyone.

Pos  Driver        Team                      Time
 1.  Fisichella    Renault              (M)  1h30:40.529
 2.  Alonso        Renault              (M)  +     4.585
 3.  Button        Honda                (M)  +     9.631
 4.  Montoya       McLaren-Mercedes     (M)  +    39.351
 5.  Massa         Ferrari              (B)  +    43.254
 6.  M.Schumacher  Ferrari              (B)  +    43.854
 7.  Villeneuve    BMW-Sauber           (M)  +  1:20.461
 8.  R.Schumacher  Toyota               (B)  +  1:21.288

Fastest race lap: Alonso, 1:34.803

Qualifying best: Button, Q2, 1:33.527

Weather

Early predictions are for a cloudy weekend this year, with highs around 92 degrees and low wind. There is a significant chance of scattered thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday.

Strategy

It is important to know that the teams will be using hard and medium compounds at this event: the medium is worth perhaps as much as a second a lap in terms of speed, but quite how long it maintains an advantage for is going to be key. It is possible, but unlikely, to make a three stop strategy possible.

Most teams will probably opt for the conservative two stop approach; with the evidence showing the softer tyres offer a definite edge, it seems sensible to start on those, so as not to lose out in the early part of the race - there may well be exceptions from anyone with a huge fuel load, looking to make up places from the stops, particularly if they are pursuing a single stop approach.

Conclusions

Considering their performance in Australia, Ferrari and McLaren should dominate, though question marks over Raikkonen's engine may need him to back off or change it before qualifying and accept the ten spot penalty. Perhaps there is a chance for Massa to even the score with Raikkonen, but it would be a surprise to see another team on the podium.

For the remaining points, BMW-Sauber and Renault should be closely matched, as the battle for 'best of the rest' is heating up. Watch out for Williams and Toyota fighting over any points made available if any of the first four teams struggle with reliability.

A Lap of Sepang with Fernando Alonso

Sepang is perhaps the most difficult circuit of the year, and it is certainly one of the most technical. With this I mean that your car needs to be strong in every area: all the important corners tend to be high-speed, so you need a perfect car balance and good aerodynamics.

The track itself has a lot of rhythm, one corner leads you to the next one and it is not hard on the brakes; it is all about keeping the momentum through the corners. Physically the track is very demanding; it's extremely hot and humid, which makes it particularly tough for the driver.

There are many corners that I love here and that can give you a lot of lap time if driven correctly. Turn Five and Six is the high speed section and very exciting. It is taken in fifth or sixth gear and when the car is well balanced, with enough front wing and not too much understeer, it is beautiful to come out of Turn Six extremely fast.

Then there is also the very slow corner of Turn Nine, this a good test of the traction on the car; if you have a good car coming out of there you will accelerate very quickly until Turn 11. At this corner you need good support from the rear suspension.

The tyres are under a lot of strain here as well, and not only because of the heat but also the asphalt is quite old now. As a result it has broken up over the years, so every year it gets harder and harder on the tyres.

Team by Team

Alonso, McLaren MP4-22 Mercedes © LAT

McLaren Mercedes

With Ferrari actually having a slight performance edge, McLaren are not off to a perfect start to the year, but the double podium finish in Melbourne tells the competition that this year, they have a car that is both quick and relatively robust - quite a change from their normal tradition!

Although they have won this race before, the team have tended to struggle in Malaysia, so it was interesting to see that their times from testing - it seems that if they are to excel this year, then they are in no hurry to show their hand when it comes to absolute pace.

Then again, of all the teams in the paddock, they are even more secretive than Ferrari: it is quite possible that they have made a useful step forward and significantly closed the deficit to the Maranello team. Either way, both drivers should be worth keeping an eye on as the race unfolds!

1. Fernando Alonso: after a strong showing in Australia, where he contained his popular teammate, Alonso is probably looking forward to seeing what the team has done to close the gap to the front. Always quick in Malaysia, and in a car that is at least close to being on a par with Ferrari, there is every chance that Alonso will challenge to win this one.

2. Lewis Hamilton: a near faultless debut in a competitive car has put Hamilton right in to the media spotlight, and there is no doubt that he made a very strong showing alongside his World Champion teammate. Malaysia will be another opportunity to throw up surprises, so there will be particular interest in the youngster again this time out - especially as the recent test means he has had a chance to learn this track before arriving.

Objectives: Both cars on the podium again.

Renault

It seemed strange that the reigning constructors' world championship holders were looking like the fourth fastest team in Australia, but they really struggled to get on a par with BMW, let alone McLaren and Ferrari. With the blame put on a poor understanding of their new tyres, plus Kovalainen driving like the rookie he is, they have made excuses, but those won't work for long.

So, since then, they have been working hard to bridge their understanding gap with Bridgestone tyres - and the evidence says they are making definite progress, as Kovalainen was very quick when testing at Sepang. The revisions might not be sufficient to close up with Ferrari, but they should at least give the team a shot at getting back ahead of BMW-Sauber.

3. Giancarlo Fisichella: although a fair reflection of the pace of the car, Fisichella was disappointed with his fifth place in Australia and is looking for more in Malaysia; he won this race last season and should be motivated to take the fight to the front.

4. Heikki Kovalainen: the debut in Melbourne did everything except go to plan for Kovalainen, yet he remains focused on what is ahead, and is keen to make amends. A very positive test in Sepang can have done nothing to hurt his confidence, so he should be one to watch as the race unfolds.

Objectives: Get both cars in to Q3 and then scoring good points.

Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari F2007 © LAT

Ferrari

Raikkonen comprehensively dominated the Australian Grand Prix, while Massa made steady progress through the field from the back to finish in the points - a very strong start for the team, and one they will be looking to build on. On the downside, the car is clearly struggling with a fragile gearbox and the team may be compelled to change Raikkonen's engine, which would result in a penalty.

Adding to the potential troubles, the FIA recently issued a clarification on the subject of moving floors - which are not permitted as aerodynamic devices. There has been some thought that one of Ferrari's advantages comes from just such a device, so it will be interesting to see whether they change anything: if they do, then will the gap to McLaren close? And if they don't, will they fail a revised test?

5. Felipe Massa: clearly disappointed with his gearbox problem in Australia qualifying, Massa could well be feeling that he has missed out on a victory that should have been his, had it not occurred; he will be looking to restore the balance in Sepang, though that might lead him back to overdriving the car...

6. Kimi Raikkonen: it looked almost too easy for the Finn to win the opening race, so it is little surprise that he arrives as favourite to repeat the exercise. Even if he does end up needing the engine change, he could well work his way back to the podium.

Objectives: Both drivers on the podium.

Honda

A difficult opening weekend in Melbourne was brought home particularly sharply by the relatively strong showing of Super Aguri, who are using the chassis that the team used at the end of last year. As it happens, after finishing 17th and 14th in qualifying, Barrichello was able to match the midfielders, but that is falling far short of where the team was expecting to race this year.

Since then, they have been looking at resolving their problems with braking stability in testing, but the step forward fell short of expectations, so there is little hope that they close the gap to their intended competitors before the European season begins. It is unlikely that the team will be able to fight for points without some well timed rain or safety cars to help them move forward.

7. Jenson Button: although Button is fond of this track and seems able to get more from his car than usual, his fortunes at Sepang have been mixed, and there is little reason to think that he will be particularly lucky this time out. Without that, his only real competition is to race Barrichello and ensure he comes home ahead of Super Aguri.

8. Rubens Barrichello: despite being disappointed with this year's car, Barrichello has cracked on with the job of working around its shortcomings, and to date has been making a better showing than his teammate. He must be looking to turn that screw again this weekend!

Objectives: Get both cars in to Q2... and beat Super Aguri!

Robert Kubica © LAT

BMW Sauber

Widely expected to make a strong showing in Australia, BMW Sauber did little to disappoint through practice and qualifying, with Kubica and Heidfeld in the top five on the grid despite differing strategies. On race day, those unwound to see them running line astern, before Kubica retired with gearbox problems and Heidfeld finished fourth.

Since then, they have been working on reliability as much as pace in Sepang, so there a good reason to think they may get two cars to the finish next time out. It will be interesting, on the other hand, to establish whether or not their pace is impacted by the FIA's clarification on the 'moveable floor' saga - along with Ferrari, they are believed to have mounted the splitter such that it moves in the event of contact with curbs. Should their specific implementation also contravene the clarification, then they will have had to revise it.

In practice, the difference it makes may, perhaps, allow Renault to compete - otherwise, they have to be looking for both cars to finish in the points.

9. Nick Heidfeld: with his Australia strategy unwinding to place him behind Kubica, some may question how long Heidfeld can maintain his dominance over the talented youngster. Despite questions on absolute pace, however, there is no doubt that he has tremendous consistency, so he will capitalise if Kubica makes any mistakes.

10. Robert Kubica: it seems likely that Kubica is still getting to grips with the characteristics of the Bridgestone tyres, as his pace does not seem quite so blisteringly apparent this year. Nevertheless, he is clearly going through the year in great form and should be worth watching in Malaysia.

Objectives: Both cars in Q3 and finishing with points.

Toyota

Through practice, it seemed that Toyota had finally worked out how to get their new car to go fast - and they both qualified in the top ten before it all came apart on race day. All told, it was more promising than pre-season form had predicted, which was positive, but being passed by Rosberg in a Williams-Toyota over the course of the race must have been tough to take.

The weekend ahead is likely to look much the same: testing at Sepang has shown that the team is a solid midfield outfit, with some issues over full race distance consistency. It means that they can hope to get the cars into the final qualifying session again, and perhaps score another point or two.

Perhaps the best news for the team is that they are comfortably ahead of Honda, the only other outfit that really matters in their markets until they are able to score a win of their own.

Ralf Schumacher and Jarno Trulli (Toyota TF107s) in Melbourne © LAT

11. Ralf Schumacher: although practically invisible through the Australian weekend, the German seems to have started the year with an appetite, and finished the opening race with a point. He usually goes very well in Malaysia - he won in 2002 - so we should see more from him on this occasion.

12. Jarno Trulli: from second in 2005, to trailing Schumacher over the line having been lapped last season, Trulli will be hoping to improve; however, unless he can restore his old edge in qualifying, it is likely that this will be a repeat showing of the latter performance...

Objectives: get both cars in to the points.

Red Bull Racing

It was a very mixed Australian Grand Prix for Red Bull, who saw Webber qualify seventh before having a miserable race as Coulthard worked his way forward until the point where he was way over-optimistic attacking Wurz and took both cars out of the race.

Since then, they have been testing in Sepang, and actually shown some pretty impressive times: the question now must be, will they be able to repeat that during the weekend ahead. If they are getting to grips with their problems in understanding how to unlock the potential from the car, then they are going to be an interesting team to watch, particularly in qualifying.

14. David Coulthard: after the last outing, Coulthard may well be attempting to avoid mistakes in qualifying at the expense of total pace, so don't expect him to challenge his qualifying specialist teammate there. Rather, a consistent and savvy race day is more likely to see him apply pressure, perhaps overhauling the Australian.

15. Mark Webber: after the blistering qualifying hour in Melbourne raised moral tremendously at Red Bull, it was surprising to see Webber struggle so much on race day - something that he must be intent on preventing this weekend. Consistency is how he eventually bettered Rosberg at Williams, and he must re-attain that quality.

Objectives: Get another car in to Q1 and shoot for points.

Williams

Nico Rosberg in the Williams garage © LAT

Despite some decent pace in testing, the Williams drivers were not able to make it into Q3 in qualifying, which disappointed. That said, Rosberg proceeded to drive the wheels off the car on Sunday, finishing an impressive seventh. Wurz was taken out by Coulthard after struggling to make an impression with a one stop approach.

This year, Williams have clearly not started the season with the relative pace they had last year, but the car is evidently far more reliable. Provided the work they are putting in to getting qualifying sorted out succeeds without compromising race pace, they have to be looking for points every weekend.

On another positive side, they were able to overshadow the works Toyota team, whose budget is almost an order of magnitude larger, even though they are running the same engine and gearbox. They will be looking for the same again this time.

16. Nico Rosberg: although overshadowed by the performance of the rookie Hamilton, Rosberg actually had a very strong weekend in Australia, illustrating that the talent shown early last year is not a flash in the pan. Returning to the circuit that saw him a surprise 4th in qualifying last year, there has to be some optimism for scoring more points.

17. Alex Wurz: there was little remarkable about Wurz in his 'comeback' outing in Melbourne, except that he was lucky not to be injured in the incident with Coulthard. Despite considerable experience in Formula One cars, and significant acclaim for his feedback ability, he was simply not in a position to shine on race day: that has to be turned around if he is to justify the race seat, rather than the testing role.

Objectives: Get a car in to Q3 and aim for points. Finish ahead of Toyota!

Toro Rosso

Australia did not look like the place to be for Toro Rosso - they simply could not get the car dialed in and effective, leaving them struggling to do anything other than separate Spyker from the remainder of the field. That said, during the race it seems that Liuzzi started to get the hang of the car as his lap times came down and he finished somewhere shy of Webber.

The weekend ahead is unlikely to show massive improvement, as they are struggling with the same issues that Red Bull face but have less experienced drivers offering the insight needed to move things forward. Off track, Spyker are taking Toro Rosso to arbitration on the basis that the car is the same as the Red Bull chassis, implying it is a customer chassis and hence illegal.

18. Vitantonio Liuzzi: despite horrible pace for most of the weekend, Liuzzi finally seemed to be able to get more from the car under racing circumstances - so he has to be more optimistic that this weekend will offer a chance to match the pace of the Red Bulls.

19. Scott Speed: after failing to stay close to his teammate last time out, Speed is clearly going to have to work at closing the gap. This is particularly important as allowing Liuzzi to gain an upper hand again this season will make it very difficult for him to make it in Formula One.

Objectives: Qualify with and race Red Bull.

Spyker

A miserable weekend on the track in Melbourne revealed just how off the pace this team is, so it is little surprise that Spyker are attempting to close gaps off the field as well as on it. They are taking Super Aguri and Toro Rosso to arbitration, alleging their cars are illegal under the customer car definitions from the Concorde Agreement.

Christijan Albers, Spyker F8-VII © LAT

This weekend, there is no reason to think much will change: the car was not taken to the Sepang test, so even if the team believes they have some good developments, they start the weekend with a disadvantage in track experience. More finger pointing might well occur, but with the arbitration process started, focus ought to return to getting the cars through the race.

20. Christijan Albers: after crashing through being distracted by an errant earphone, Albers really has to get his act together for the weekend ahead; realistically, beating his teammate is the only fair objective, so that has to be a priority. Being out-qualified by a rookie teammate by 2.5s again is not an option if his career is to progress.

21. Adrian Sutil: after comprehensively out-qualifying his teammate, Sutil has to be pleased with his first Saturday performance; now he must become more savvy on race day and avoid penalties (blocking the leaders and crossing the pit-line in Australia) to demonstrate forward progress. Beating Albers would do no harm...

Objectives: Qualify off the back row. Finish anywhere other than last.

Super Aguri

Despite launching their new car right before the Australian Grand Prix, the Super Aguri team had by far their best performance. From the outset, they were pretty quick, making the works Honda team look average. In qualifying, Sato made it in to the final qualifying session - the team lined up tenth and eleventh on the grid.

Repeating the performance in Sepang is going to be somewhat harder, despite a positive test there, as they are expecting the other teams to get their collective acts together. For all that, at least getting the cars into Q2 remains an objective. More to the point, Sunday in Melbourne revealed that their race day was not quite so impressive, so an emphasis is going to have to go to identifying and executing strategy more effectively.

Besides the on-track performance, there are distractions away from the scene, as Spyker is taking the team to arbitration over the status of their chassis, alleging it to be a 2006 Honda design, hence illegal.

22. Takuma Sato: another fantastic qualifying session would be good, but getting more from the race is a must; the Japanese driver struggled with race pace and slow pit-stops last time out, so the team has been working on getting more from the car for Sunday. The good news is that a challenging teammate does not seem to impair Sato's consistency, so there are good prospects ahead.

23. Anthony Davidson: despite blinding pace in practice, Davidson was unable to stay ahead of Sato in qualifying, before a mechanical issue at the start put him to the back, leading to a tangle with Sutil. Consequently, the driver has been recuperating for much of the intervening time. Nonetheless, his pace and feedback has been motivating to the team, so it would not be a complete surprise to see more blistering laps this weekend...

Objectives: Get both cars to Q2 and shoot for a point.