The 2006 Malaysian Grand Prix Preview

Following one of the closer opening races of recent years, the circus is moving straight on to Sepang in Malaysia, where the hot climate can stress new engines that are on their second race weekend.

Analysis

The Sepang circuit is modern and challenging in almost every respect. A combination of long, fast corners is interspersed with long straights and slow corners; varying cambers and a wide track offer choice of line, whilst hot temperatures stress engines and drivers.

Sepang offers several overtaking opportunities, reducing the importance of grid position compared to getting race strategy right. That said, the lessons from qualifying in Bahrain should be clear, and some differences ought to be in the offing. For example, teams that expect to comfortably make the top ten will head out earlier in the knockout sessions, as the couple of tenths they may make from a little more rubber on the track is meaningless in the grand scheme of things.

After feeling the pinch of the 110% rule, Ferrari rued their lost allocation of a lap of fuel that possibly cost the race, so expect teams that are marginal on their top up requirements to be aggressive in dealing with traffic, even on their in and out laps.

Flashback

In 2005, Malaysia was also the second stop for the circus, seeing Fernando Alonso score a pole to flag win after a stunning qualifying session. This race confirmed the pedigree of the Renault and also announced the start of Giancarlo Fisichella's poor luck.

Notable events included a solid second on the grid for Jarno Trulli that proved to have nothing to do with light fuel, as he raced strongly for second; Ferrari and McLaren struggling to pass Red Bulls; Mark Webber putting his Williams into fourth on the grid and Nick Heidfeld taking his to the podium.

McLaren continued to struggle with getting enough out of their tyres: Kimi Raikkonen looked good in qualifying whilst Juan Pablo Montoya ran strongly from eleventh to finish in the points, but never looked like threatening for a podium.

Notable events from the race included both BAR Honda's expiring on lap 2; Raikkonen puncturing a tyre on an out lap, to struggle back to the pits; Jacques Villeneuve spinning out after struggling with braking bias; Webber and Ralf Schumacher touching wheels and then the Australian trying too late to shut the door on Fisichella, taking them both out of the race.

Pos  Driver        Team                   Time
 1.  Alonso        Renault           (M)  1h31:33.736
 2.  Trulli        Toyota            (M)  +    24.327
 3.  Heidfeld      Williams-BMW      (M)  +    32.188
 4.  Montoya       McLaren-Mercedes  (M)  +    41.631
 5.  R.Schumacher  Toyota            (M)  +    51.854
 6.  Coulthard     Red Bull-Cosworth (M)  +  1:12.543
 7.  M.Schumacher  Ferrari           (B)  +  1:19.988
 8.  Klien         Red Bull-Cosworth (M)  +  1:20.835

Fastest lap: Raikkonen, 1:35.483

Weather

As usual, Sepang is difficult to predict weather for, but scattered thunderstorms are expected throughout the weekend, particularly on Friday morning. Low winds from a consistent direction should at least keep one thing easy for the drivers, but air temperatures that hit 35°C will drive up track temperature and emphasis driver fitness.

Tyres

Facing possibly the highest track temperature of the season, along with a combination of long fast corners and straights, means that tyre wear is of concern for all teams. Michelin have historically shown well at this circuit, so they will be looking for Renault, McLaren and Honda to be on the pace again this weekend.

Bridgestone have apparently levelled the playing field for Ferrari, with Williams demonstrating the longevity of the tyres by setting fastest laps just before pitstops - apparently a surprise to some onlookers, but this was often the norm for 2004. They will also be hoping that the greater track temperature will lessen Toyota's issues with getting their tyres hot enough.

Strategy

With a long pitlane making pitstops quite expensive, a two-stop strategy would seem the most expedient. Teams that are particularly light on their tyres could opt for more, but making three stops work would necessitate quick and effective overtaking.

Conclusions

After the stunning drive from the back by Kimi Raikkonen in Bahrain, it is hard to discount the very serious likelihood that McLaren will have a very strong weekend and win. That said, Renault are on the money and Honda close behind. Ferrari will be in the hunt if Bridgestone deliver again - which they should. There will be a lot of disappointed teams that expect to make the podium and fail to deliver.

Should it rain, then Bridgestone's historical advantage in the wet could really shake things up: if Toyota's issues are only with tyres, then they will magically jump in performance, whilst Williams would clearly make the most of this as a chance to finish on the podium and Ferrari should be the class of the field.

For fans of surprises, this is a circuit where Button has put together strong performances in the past: if Honda are due a win early in the season, this is perhaps the best opportunity they will see.

A lap of Sepang with Juan Pablo Montoya

Crossing the start line at the Sepang circuit, you reach a speed of 306km/h in sixth gear on the long pit straight before braking dramatically for the tight complex, which incorporates a downhill gradient. The right-hander is taken at 78km/h in first, with your speed dropping slightly for the left turn that follows immediately.

As the track is fairly wide at this point of the track there are often good opportunities for overtaking under braking. Accelerating out, the track leads to the long right-hander of turn three that sweeps you round onto a short straight.

Pushing hard on the throttle, you reach some 251km/h in fifth gear before braking sharply, dropping down to 110km/h in second for the tight right-hander of turn four. On the exit, you quickly flick up through the gears as you approach the flowing left of turn five, which is negotiated at 232km/h in fifth gear.

The tighter right of turn six follows and requires a slight touch on the brakes, bringing your speed down to 216km/h in fourth.

Another quick sprint along a short straight comes next, at speeds of 275km/h, on the approach to the two right-handers of turns seven and eight.

Turn seven is taken at 180km/h, the slightly more open turn of eight sees your speed increase by 10km/h. As you exit the corner, you continue to push hard on the throttle along the straight that leads to the very tight turn nine.

Braking hard as you enter the complex at the back of the circuit, the left-hander, is negotiated in first gear at 76km/h.

On the throttle as you exit, you build and maintain your speed through the long, right-hander of turn ten, reaching some 193km/h in third gear.

Turn eleven, a 90-degree right-hander is taken at 139km/h. Another short burst of power takes you to turn twelve. Keeping your speed through the corner, you then dab the brakes, dropping to 222km/h in fourth for the slower right hand of turn thirteen. Flicking down 2 gears, the sharp right of turn fourteen swings you round almost 180-degrees at some 107km/h onto the straight that runs parallel to the start-finish straight, separated by the massive grandstand.

Powering along the straight and 310km/h in sixth, you then brake sharply to negotiate the hairpin of turn fifteen, at 85km/h in second, which flips you back onto the start-finish straight to begin another lap.

Team by Team

Renault

A near perfect performance on race day gave Renault another win, and an excellent start to their season. Both drivers looked to be in reasonable shape until qualifying, before a mistake and power loss reduced their drivers to fourth and ninth places. In the race, Fisichella saw a repeat of the power loss problem before retiring on lap 21 with hydraulics failure, whilst Alonso went on to win: a familiar picture!

Giancarlo Fisichella © LAT

For the race ahead, the team have to be looking to resolve the problems that plague Fisichella: this is looking like one of the most competitive seasons in recent years, so every point is going to be important if they are to retain the constructors' title.

For Malaysia, the team expect their all-round strength to let them continue to run at the front: they won comfortably last season with a car that showed similar characteristics. Unlike last year, the competition is expected to be very strong this time, but they are still looking for the win.

Drivers: Alonso's sustained pace during the Bahrain race showed he has lost none of his speed over the winter - and he held off Michael Schumacher convincingly for the final laps of the race. Alongside Schumacher and Raikkonen, he is favourite to win.

That said, if Fisichella ever has a car under him that is reliable, he has the pace to match Alonso and should also be able to challenge at the front: a double podium will be tough with the competition so closely matched, but it would not be a surprise to see him on any of the three steps.

Objectives: Win.

McLaren Mercedes

The McLaren team had another disappointing weekend, despite finishing on the podium. Reliability again cost Raikkonen in qualifying - putting him to the back of the grid - whilst Montoya complained of poor power from his engine all weekend. These niggles saw the Columbian running off the pace of his teammate, though Raikkonen drove a flawless race to finish third. These problems could prove to be signs of another frustrating weekend ahead.

Then again, they could have a car that will give Raikkonen a clean weekend, whilst Montoya's engine mapping issues might well be resolved in the software before the race weekend starts. If they get their act together, then there is every reason to believe they will be chasing a race win.

Drivers: Raikkonen is clearly a favourite to challenge for a win after his excellent drive from the back of the field in Bahrain. A repeat performance from near the front of the grid could well give the team their first win of the year.

Following Montoya's disappointing start, it sounds as though the driver is making excuses for being off the pace of his teammate, but the team are working to resolve the underlying problem with his engine. Given that they resolve it before the coming weekend, he ought to be close to or on the pace of Raikkonen and challenging at the front.

Objectives: Win.

Ferrari

Finishing on the podium in Bahrain was an excellent result for Ferrari: they have clearly made a good job of bouncing back from the disappointment of 2005, and have produced a car that can again challenge for race wins.

Looking forward to Malaysia, a circuit which has been good to Ferrari on most of their visits, the team are looking to Bridgestone to ensure the tyres will be competitive: this will be key if they are to fight for a win. The potential for rain does no harm either, as the team traditional react well tactically, and Bridgestone has held a wet weather advantage in recent years.

The helmets of Felipe Massa and Michael Schumacher © Ferrari

Both drivers should qualify well, and Ferrari will be expecting at least another podium finish, though fighting for the win is on the cards.

Drivers: Schumacher has clearly not lost the will to chase a victory. Though he was unable to get past Alonso, the car was right on the pace; he goes very well at Sepang and will be expecting good things and even if Bridgestone doesn't quite have the performance there, he will look for a podium.

Felipe Massa performed well through the weekend, up until spinning early in the race. From there, his recovery included a surprisingly slow pitstop followed by an indifferent race - perhaps raising questions over his motivation when recovering from disappointment. On the positive side, he was only a fraction closer than Schumacher for much of the weekend, and will be looking to match his teammate again this weekend.

Objectives: Podium finish - win if it rains.

Toyota

It was a miserable weekend for Toyota, who apparently have been unable to work out how to get their new Bridgestone tyres to be effective. The drivers were knocked out in the first two rounds of qualifying, then had miserable races to finish behind Toro Rosso.

Listening to their reasoning for the poor showing, the car is simply too easy on the tyres, failing to work them hard enough to keep them into the proper operating window: they are finishing the stints with very little wear.

This is a similar problem to McLaren's at the start of 2005, where they struggled in the early races after designing the car to be very easy wearing. Once they had addressed this, partly through more aggressive suspension geometry, but also with a revised aerodynamic package, they became very competitive.

Without time to test before Malaysia, Toyota are left with the sole hope that the increased track temperatures will play towards getting their tyres working better, whilst they work with Bridgestone to understand and resolve the problem.

Drivers: Neither Ralf Schumacher nor Trulli can be expected to do much with the car before the underlying grip problem has been resolved. They will struggle to make it through the knockout rounds and the race is set to be another disaster. A wet race is what they need to level the playing field.

Objectives: Beat Toro Rosso.

Williams Cosworth

Considering they are without manufacturer backing, Williams had a relatively decent showing in Bahrain: Webber put in his usual excellent showing in qualifying, getting on to the fourth row, whilst Nico Rosberg made up for a broken nose at the start by pushing hard and finishing seventh, with fastest lap to boot.

Malaysia could be another interesting weekend for the team. They are still learning about their tyres and don't currently have the package to run at the front, but their powerful engine will make up for some deficiencies in the aerodynamics. If Bridgestone's tyres work they have the capacity to run at the front of the midfield.

Nico Rosberg in parc ferme after the Bahrain Grand Prix © XPB/LAT

Drivers: Webber is now seen as an experienced hand, known for his excellent qualifying performance, but his reputation as a racer is starting to take a beating. Not only did Nick Heidfeld outshine him on race days last year, but he is in danger of being outshone this year too. He is expected to have a decent qualifying session, but a strong Sunday is required to buff up his tarnishing racing image.

After coming from the back to finish just twenty seconds and a single place behind his teammate, overtaking en route, Rosberg has been a revelation in the paddock: many eyes will be watching to see what he can do with the next race. Inexperience is likely to contribute to more mistakes (spin in qualifying, broken nose at the start of the race) but Williams have tamed others in their time. If he stays out of trouble, then he could qualify and race in the points.

Objectives: Get both cars in the points again.

Honda

Having just missed out on a podium in Bahrain - apparently due to a slipping clutch - it is a sign of Honda's anticipation from the season that they are disappointed with the weekend.

The team appear to be close to the pace of the front runners, though the evidence of Raikkonen battling past Jenson Button from the back of the field belies that. They are clearly in a shape to run close to the front and make regular trips to the podium, but winning is apparently going to need an element of luck too.

Malaysia should allow the strength of the Honda engine to show, whilst the team are stating the track temperatures will only aid their tyres, so perhaps they will be able to challenge for a win on merit; however, the excellent race pace of McLaren and Renault, on the same rubber, cannot be discounted: a win is certainly possible, but it will require luck.

Drivers: A solid weekend from Button showed that Honda is a force to be reckoned with in Bahrain - but the performance was eclipsed by a poor start to the race and Raikkonen passing him, having started from the back of the grid. The Englishman's claim that traffic explained the gap to the front sounds hollow in comparison to that handicap. Malaysia is a circuit that has seen him run strongly in the past: a repeat performance is needed if he is to make an impression on the podium this weekend, let alone win.

Rubens Barrichello's Bahrain weekend was disappointing as he struggled to get the car set up properly, then lost third gear early in the race; then again, it was his first race with the team, so matching his long-term incumbent teammate was always going to be a struggle, even if the car had been compliant. Approaching Malaysia, if he can get the car set-up quickly, then he has the talent and experience to fight with Button at the front.

Objectives: Podium finish - perhaps win.

Red Bull Racing Ferrari

After failing to complete a race distance in the off-season, most onlookers were surprised to see the team not only get both cars to the finish, but to be fighting for points to boot. David Coulthard dropped out of the points after flat-spotting his tyres, but Christian Klien had good pace and earned his point well, despite losing seventh place to the charging Rosberg right at the end of the race.

David Coulthard suffers a mechanical failure on the cool down lap © XPB/LAT

Malaysia may not be the best race for this team: the increased temperatures will place more stress on their cooling systems, so race day could well see the team limit the output of their Ferrari engine to control overheating; even if Coulthard escapes that restriction, a new engine (the original expired on his in lap in Bahrain) will put him at the back of the grid.

Drivers: Coulthard will probably focus entirely on his race set-up ahead of the qualifying sessions, as his ten-place penalty ensures a spot in the last couple of rows of the grid; race day should therefore see him work forwards, probably on a heavy fuel load, and he could head towards scoring a point.

Klien is showing more maturity, apparently intent on keeping his nose clean and pushing hard all the way to the finish. He is a genuine contender for another point at this even, if the front runners have any reliability issues.

Objectives: Score another point.

BMW Sauber

It was something of a mixed weekend for BMW Sauber in Bahrain. Their drivers lined up tenth and eleventh after Jacques Villeneuve failed to make the second cut, and Heidfeld struggled with fuel on board. On race day, Villeneuve went out with a blown engine after running strongly, whilst Heidfeld had a troubled race to twelfth after a spin at the start.

In Malaysia, the team are looking to capitalise on their promising pace, if not the results, and could well be in the hunt for a point. Admittedly, that includes hoping for retirements from front runners who have judged their engines too finely, but it seems realistic for them to run strongly enough keep the midfield honest.

Drivers: Polish third driver Robert Kubica will be an important part of getting the team up to speed, saving laps for the race drivers. Villeneuve may well be hoping that BMW power will help him make the second cut this time, though his focus will remain solely on solid racing: his new engine should alleviate some concern over reliability.

Heidfeld will expect to outqualify his experienced teammate. This time a clean start will be important, so he can show that it is possible to move forward.

Objectives: Points finish.

MF1 Toyota

A dismal showing in Bahrain has done little to demonstrate how far this team have come. Tiago Monteiro has added another race finish to his list, only two laps down, though Christijan Albers' weekend finished with a broken driveshaft at the start of the race.

In Malaysia, little should change: they are unlikely to make it through the first knockout in qualifying, and performance again leaves them struggling to finish a lap down. This is car is not a midfield runner.

That said, it is clearly a step forward from last year: the team have improved backing and it shows, along with far more testing than they have been able to afford in recent years. For a building year, this is an important step in the right direction.

Drivers: Monteiro has continued where he left off last season, putting in a steady performance, staying out of trouble, and getting the car to the finish. Albers will also be looking for a piece of that pie, and to make the most of his replacement engine to press an advantage on his only real competition, his teammate.

Objectives: Get both cars to the finish.

Toro Rosso Cosworth

Scuderia Toro Rosso logo © XPB/LAT

Despite the complaints that Toro Rosso had a huge performance advantage with their restricted V10, not to mention predictions of a podium finish for the outfit, it comes as little surprise that the FIA got it basically right: the V10 is useful, but not a front-runner.

They did not have a bad showing for the opening weekend: they made it through the first knockout round in qualifying, finishing about a lap down - and beat Toyota.

In Malaysia, the team should be able to leverage the one big advantage of this engine: reliability. With the other teams facing a second hot weekend, they will be compelled to limit their running in the Friday sessions, and probably turn down their engines for the race itself. That gives them more track time for their inexperienced drivers, along with sustained race pace.

Provided they can keep up the pace, and enough teams struggle to make the distance, this is one of the few races where scraping into the points should be possible.

Drivers: Tonio Liuzzi had the better of the weekend, leveraging his better experience of the formula effectively.

Objectives: Finish on the lead lap - possibly scoring a point.

Super Aguri Honda

After not only showing up in Bahrain, but getting a car to the finish, there is some respect due the fledgling outfit for their determination to take part. Whether they pick up the underdog support that Minardi used to have is still to be seen, but with their 'go racing, whatever' approach, they are probably going the right way about it.

Drivers: Takuma Sato made the finish in Bahrain, and will be looking to do so again - though there is no danger of fighting for anything other than last place. Yuji Ide has been on a tough learning curve, not helped by mechanical failure cutting short his last weekend: clearly, finishing in Sepang would considerably add to his F1 experience.

Objectives: Get both cars to the finish.