The 2006 Japanese GP Preview

Analysis

The circus moves seamlessly from China to Suzuka in Japan - scene of one of the best races of 2005: with protagonists Schumacher and Alonso and their constructors all but tied for the championships, there is all to play for in this penultimate round.

The technical figure of eight Suzuka circuit is one that most of the drivers like, particularly those who can drive around the car when it is imperfectly balanced: the combination of fast and slow corners requires a compromised set-up, which critically impacts the way the tyres wear; aerodynamics are important as the fast corners require higher downforce levels, but excessive drag down the straights is punished. A strong engine is well rewarded, allowing teams to carry more downforce for the high speed corners.

Flashback 2005

In 2005, a wet Saturday made qualifying something of a lottery; in the end, pole went to Ralf Schumacher and Toyota, who made the most of a drying track, narrowly beating Jenson Button's BAR. Giancarlo Fisichella's third spot was a solid performance, ahead of Christian Klien for Red Bull and Takuma Sato in the second BAR. David Coulthard's sixth place was solid reward for the first lap on the wet track.

Mark Webber and Jacques Villeneuve filled the fourth row. Michael Schumacher was fourteenth as heavy rain made a mockery of his run, ahead of Raikkonen, who looked after his car and cruised round the wet circuit, sixteen seconds off the pace.

Sunday saw a change in the weather, with the sun returning to see a dry start. A long, slow parade lap had Button's BAR smoking on the grid, and he duly bogged down at the start, letting Fisichella through. Coulthard also started well, slotting behind Button, whilst Barrichello and Sato tangled further back, leading both to pit at the end of the lap; Montoya attacked Villeneuve, getting forced in to the wall for his trouble - leading to the safety car coming out.

Six laps later, the restart saw Michael Schumacher pass Klien - as Alonso would, soon after. Pizzonia attempted to pass Villeneuve at Degner but spun out and beached the car. Sato got enthusiastic with Trulli, taking the Toyota out of the race. Ralf Schumacher stopped from the lead shortly after - indicating a three stop race for the Toyota.

Alonso soon chased down Schumacher and fifth place, but struggled to pass the Ferrari, leading to Raikkonen closing down the pair by lap eighteen. Alonso then pulled off the pass of the race, going around the outside of the Ferrari driver through 130R and immediately pulling away - prompting Raikkonen to start attacking Schumacher too... though the front washed out every time he got close.

Button and Alonso stopped on lap 22 (putting the Spaniard back in traffic), leaving Coulthard to assume the lead. Raikkonen and Schumacher stopped on lap 26, both returning behind Button. Coulthard's stop a lap later saw him return with a net loss of three places from the first round of stops. Raikkonen eventually passed Schumacher around the outside of turn one and set off after third place.

Alonso again caught Schumacher, dicing through several corners with the Ferrari before also passing around the outside in turn one and setting off after Raikkonen, who was struggling to pass Webber, who in turn was being held up by second placed Button: the Englishman was slower, but driving tidily and making his car very wide.

Fisichella eventually stopped from the lead, yielding it to Button, with nineteen laps remaining. When he stopped, followed by Webber, releasing Raikkonen: Webber passed as the BAR stop went badly: he then gave up seventh to Alonso on track. In the closing laps, Coulthard and Ralf Schumacher stopped, with Raikkonen finally coming in again, returning in second place behind Fisichella, who he closed down in short order. Alonso forced his way past Webber, whilst Raikkonen ran all over the back of Fisichella, eventually passing around the outside of turn one at the start of the final lap.

Pos  Driver        Team                   Time
 1.  Raikkonen     McLaren-Mercedes  (M)  1h29:02.212
 2.  Fisichella    Renault           (M)  +     1.633
 3.  Alonso        Renault           (M)  +    17.456
 4.  Webber        Williams-BMW      (M)  +    22.274
 5.  Button        BAR-Honda         (M)  +    29.507
 6.  Coulthard     Red Bull-Cosworth (M)  +    31.601
 7.  M.Schumacher  Ferrari           (B)  +    33.879
 8.  R.Schumacher  Toyota            (M)  +    49.548

Fastest lap: Raikkonen, 1:31.540

Weather

Rather like the Chinese Grand Prix weekend and the Japanese event last year, showers are again predicted for Friday and Saturday - so there is a good chance of another wet qualifying and dry race. If the rain is delayed, then guessing when it will arrive on Sunday will see compromised setups and strategies. Rain is usually a factor here.

Tyres

In the wet there is probably still a clear Michelin advantage, but in the dry things should be closer - Michelin has made more steps forward, though perhaps some Bridgestone advantage remains for Ferrari's package in particular. High wear rates will stop the manufacturers from bringing their softest tyres, but with mechanical grip well rewarded, expect some teams to gamble on marginal option tyres.

Strategy

A single stop approach means carrying a lot of mass through the fast corners and more tyre wear, also leaving cars vulnerable to being passed on the straight. Considering elapsed time, two or three stops both work well, though the latter requires drivers to pass aggressively if they want it to pay off: expect most teams to opt for two stops, though initial loads will vary according to rain predictions.

Conclusions

Provided the tyre manufacturers maintain their status quo, this is another weekend that sees Ferrari arrive as favourites, though Renault can be expected to have a broadly similar package. Whilst Alonso and Schumacher are dicing for the drivers' title, their teammates are going to be critical not only to the constructors' effort, but also to taking points away from the competition to provide some form of points buffer before the final race.

Behind the main protagonists, Raikkonen remains a threat whilst the improving Honda duo will be hoping for podium form at their home race; Toyota are likely to try something in order to impress, though their race day prospects are not so hot.

A lap of Suzuka with Kimi Raikkonen

Accelerating along the downhill pit straight at Suzuka, you reach 325km/h in sixth gear, before lifting slightly for the fast, fifth gear right of First Curve. Your speed decreases only slightly to 259km/h. The track continues to bend to the right through the second corner, which is much tighter and negotiated at 165km/h in third gear.

A quick burst on the throttle to some 247km/h, sees you reach the snake section. The track flicks left-right-left-right through this fourth gear complex. Your speed ranges from 210km/h at the start, to some 160km/h for the final right-hander. The challenging, long left of Dunlop Curve is next. Taken at 201km/h, Dunlop is quite bumpy on the entry and is nearly flat out. On the following straight you reach 290km/h in sixth on the approach to the Degner Curve.

The first section of this double right-hander is taken at 215km/h in fourth gear, before dabbing the brakes for the tighter turn nine, which is taken at 130km/h in second. A short straight follows, and you flow under the bridge at speeds of 269km/h in fifth gear, as the track kinks to the right slightly leading into the tide hairpin. Braking hard you drop to 70km/h in first gear for the 180-degree left-hander. On the throttle as you exit, the circuit begins to sweep right through the long curve of turn twelve.

You reach speeds of 295km/h in sixth, before braking for the double apex of Spoon Curve. The first left-hander is entered at 180km/h in fourth. As you continue round the corner, your speed increases slightly before a dab on the brakes takes your speed down to 140km/h in third for the second apex. It is important to maintain good momentum through the Spoon Curve, as the exit takes you out onto the longest, straight of the track.

Powering up through the gears, you are travelling at 320km/h in sixth as you crossover the track below on the approach to the 130R. Either flat out or with only a slight lift for the fast left-hander, your speed stays around the 310km/h mark in the corner. Another straight leads to the Casino Triangle chicane. You then sweep back via a long right hander onto the start-finish straight.

Team by Team

Renault

It is telling that after losing out on what ought to have been a solid Renault win in China, where their package was clearly the one to have for most of the race, Fernando Alonso is looking for more from Michelin, which perhaps might seem ungrateful to the company that provided dominant wet weather tyres there.

Giancarlo Fisichella and Fernando Alonso © LAT

Of course, the team are now clearly in need of any edge they can find as they are fighting for both championships against a Ferrari package that has arguably had some advantage at recent events. Accordingly, with tyres a critical part of the package, the smallest gain there is worth more than from any other aspect: asking for more from Michelin is inevitable. But it seems a bit desperate.

Japan is a circuit that should reward the Renault package, particularly the excellent balance, solid aerodynamic solution and traction, but Ferrari are also expected to be very strong. With momentum favouring their rivals, the French outfit will arrive as underdogs, but as Alonso intimates, they are going to need a great performance by Michelin to have any clear advantage.

Team tactics should again play an important role, both drivers being key to the constructors' championship and Fisichella expected to be a part of the Alonso's defence against Schumacher, should the situation arise.

Drivers: Fernando Alonso is tied for the lead in the drivers' championship, so beating Schumacher is the name of the game this weekend; if he cannot do so, then damage limitation will be vital.

Giancarlo Fisichella is likely to - again - find his race compromised if he is in a position to assist his teammate; however, every point counts, so the team will not be looking to leave him out in the cold.

Objectives: Beat Ferrari, everything else is immaterial.

McLaren Mercedes

A throttle problem saw Raikkonen fail to finish another race after a storming run to second - really summing up McLaren's season. De la Rosa managed a fifth, but this really could have been an opportunity to win one this year.

In Japan, the chassis should again be competitively quick, both cars ought to be scoring points if they get to the finish. This chassis is very light on wear, so they can run with softer tyres than most of their rivals without being unduly punished - this ought to pay off both in qualifying and over the full race distance.

Drivers: Kimi Raikkonen is always a threat, and so it should prove again in Japan, particularly in wet conditions; his penultimate race for the team is arguably the last decent chance they will have to challenge for a win, but they are still chasing Renault and Ferrari for performance.

Pedro de la Rosa has been putting on a decent, if unspectacular show each week, doing a good job of getting the car home in the points. More of the same should be on show this weekend.

Objectives: Get both cars into the points.

Ferrari

After snatching victory from Renault in China, Ferrari again demonstrated why they are never to be written off - though they had their own disaster with Massa, whose engine failed, ultimately leading to his retirement after colliding with Coulthard in a squabble over eighth place.

Felipe Massa and Michael Schumacher © XPB/LAT

With Bridgestone heading to their home event, even with showers predicted, Ferrari head there as firm favourites; they have closed the gaps to Renault and the last two events ought to offer their package some small advantage.

Having watched Renault play team games last weekend - Fisichella clearly acting as wingman to his championship leading teammate - there is every chance they try something similar, should the drivers be in a position to do so. It could make for some interesting racing - and possible protests.

Drivers: Schumacher is heading to one of his stronger circuits - Suzuka has seen him crushingly dominant with five wins from the last seven visits; mixed weather was often a factor but there is little arguing with the statistics. It would be no surprise to see a repeat performance.

Felipe Massa must be hoping that his luck will change - or at least that the engine won't need to be changed again. He is quick, but hasn't really made the most of any visit to Japan in the past, but he has matured and with the Ferrari package should be strong this weekend. A one-two finish could be on the cards, but he might struggle to contain Alonso or Raikkonen.

Objectives: Take pole and the race win - but especially, beat Renault.

Toyota

A miserable weekend in China underlines how far the Toyota team have to come if they are to challenge for wins. Their poor form was exacerbated by the disadvantage of Bridgestone wets, leading to poor qualifying performances - then both drivers retired from the race with mechanical faults.

With their home race looming, the forthcoming weekend is vital: last year, they had pole position to be cheerful about so don't be surprised to see them look to repeat the exercise again this year, as they are really not looking like scoring points: taking risks on Saturday would at least offer something positive so perhaps extra revs, low fuel loads and option tyres all together might give some results for qualifying.

Inevitably, the team should have at least an aerodynamic upgrade for this race: it could even put them in to contention for points if the weekend stays dry (or they are racing on a nearly dry track) and Bridgestone are strong.

Drivers: Ralf Schumacher has always looked good at this circuit, with pole to his name last year, but even with the lift of running at a home track, he will struggle to make much of an impression. Improving those fortunes will probably require a light rain, and it comes at the right time.

Similarly, Jarno Trulli is a capable racer, particularly quick over a single lap, but he is not driving a car that lets him demonstrate his abilities; even if the upgrades for this race offer a step forward, he will require some fortune to take the car in to the points.

Objectives: Qualify in the top ten and score points - get the cars home.

Mark Webber with a Bridgestone engineer © LAT

Williams Cosworth

It was an interesting outing for Williams in Shanghai, with Mark Webber having a good day to bring home a point for the struggling outfit. With reliability and performance both moving forward, there is some optimism for the remainder of the season.

That said, even if it is a home event for Bridgestone, the Japanese Grand Prix is going to be a tough outing for the team. Getting in to the points will require mistakes from the strongest outfits - and being in a position to capitalise when they are made. More realistic goals are to challenge and beat Toyota on their home ground, which would at least be a step forward.

Drivers: Mark Webber has been showing some solid form this season, working hard to make the most of his package at every opportunity; but despite a strong qualifying talent, the car is proving tough to move up the grid, and making up places on race day is proving tougher still.

Nico Rosberg has continued to struggle with the Williams package and his results are confirming it - clearly talented, he still has strong sections in races and occasionally puts on a solid showing in qualifying but the odds are that the coming weekend will be another learning experience for the rookie.

Objectives: Beat Toyota - perhaps score another point.

Honda

It could have been a tough weekend for Honda in Japan, yet they came out of it with both cars in the points and a bit of excitement to boot: overall, a good result for the team, who maximised their results from the race.

Heading to their home race, the team have some reason to be optimistic: they should be capable of scoring points at every race now, though they are not quite on the form of Renault, McLaren or Ferrari.

For the weekend ahead, they will be racing a Suzuka Special engine, revised aerodynamics package and showing the results of considerable set-up work. Targeting a win is perhaps too optimistic, considering the form of the championship protagonists, but wet weather could offer the real chance of a podium finish.

Drivers: Jenson Button overcame unexpected tyre wear in China to finish fourth, but it does put a question mark over the state his tyres might be in for the forthcoming race; provided they understand that problem, he must be looking forward to another eventful weekend and more points.

Rubens Barrichello is as quick as his teammate, and perhaps has an edge in qualifying when he is right on form - but he is yet to put together a perfect weekend at BAR; perhaps this will be the one? He is as capable of scoring points as his teammate and usually very quick in Japan, so this could be a good weekend for the Brazilian.

Objectives: Get both cars in the points again - challenge for a podium.

Red Bull logo © XPB/LAT

Red Bull Racing Ferrari

Although they brought no points out of the weekend in China, Red Bull did have a positive experience; a good strategy and hard racing was marred only by collisions, leading to damage that ultimately kept the cars out of the points.

The Suzuka circuit is likely to see the team struggle a little more, as any imperfections in the cars' balance or excess drag will be shown up more compared with the front runners; on the positive side, changing weather conditions would again allow the team to aim for a compromise set-up and differentiate themselves on race day.

Coming away from Japan with points is a tall order - unless it rains, in which case being in the right place to pick up the pieces could see them pick one up on Sunday.

Drivers: David Coulthard's considerable experience will be a big factor, not only for getting the car dialled in to the circuit and its changing grip characteristics, but also to get his teammate up to speed.

Robert Doornbos performed creditably well in China, particularly by getting to the final ten in qualifying; a repeat would be welcome in Japan, though a more cautious start to the race would be wise.

Objectives: Aim for top ten qualifying and a point from the race.

BMW Sauber

A positive weekend may have been flattered by Michelin's wet weather performance on Saturday, but the team looked solid and raced to a points finish - fourth was on the cards until a last moment accident handed away three places.

Based on recent form, the team must be looking for more points from the weekend ahead: certainly they have been qualifying well they lead the midfield, which means they ought to be comfortably fighting to take points away from Toyota and defending fifth in the championship - a reasonable objective, as the car usually performs well at circuits that emphasises balance; dialling in to a good set-up early on Friday and a developing a solid race day strategy, combined with top ten qualifying should do the job nicely.

Drivers: Nick Heidfeld was disappointed at losing three places on the penultimate corner of the Chinese Grand Prix - fourth place could have been his, but for the last moment crash; that should not detract from a solid performance in tricky conditions, however. A similar outing this weekend should see him scoring again.

Robert Kubica paid the price for trying dry weather tyres too soon last weekend, but his performance was perfectly respectable otherwise; mixed conditions again in Japan would be interesting if only to see how much he learned from the last outing, but he should be in the form to push Heidfeld all the way.

Objectives: Qualify in the top ten - and finish in the points - but in any event beat Toyota.

Spyker-MF1 Toyota

China really did not go well for the team, who came away with little positive from the event except a lot more experience of how not to go about a wet weekend - perhaps they were distracted by the change in ownership and livery? The potential for similar conditions in Japan might let the team demonstrate the lessons learned, or possibly just compound their mistakes.

Tiago Monteiro (Spyker Midland MF1) © LAT

That said, it might be a chance to capitalise on the mistakes of others: keeping a level head when the remainder of the grid is throwing away places has often led underdogs to outperform; whilst it would take a small miracle to end up in the points, stranger things have happened. And lest we forget, in its previous incarnation as Jordan, the team won more than once in wet weather, though winning is not on the cards this time.

Drivers: Tiago Monteiro made his first unforced error in China, unfortunately at a time when he is fighting for a ride next season. His reputation as a reliable finisher is not in question, but winning another race seat is going to be tough - his final races of the year could be critical, so he will be looking to dominate his teammate.

Christijan Albers had a miserable weekend in China, first being sent to the back of the grid, then picking up a 25-second penalty for blocking; it was not a good way to reward the team for signing him on for another year. Japan offers a chance to rectify the situation - if only by beating Monteiro, as the only other competition is likely to prove to be the Super Aguris.

Objectives: Learn from China mistakes and get both cars to the finish - unpenalised.

Toro Rosso Cosworth

It was a mixed weekend in China, as both drivers showed flashes of speed, but neither was able to maintain it as the circumstances changed; the result was probably fair considering their struggle for grip, but they will be looking to convert some of that promise to reward.

Getting the most out of the package in Japan is going to be an interesting challenge. The V10 engine being used is not too far off the V8 units for power during the race, but it is a larger package, compromising mass placement for optimum balance and aerodynamics around the back of the car: both could be shown up in Japan.

The team will probably not have much new to show at the forthcoming race, but if they establish a good balance early and work well with any changing conditions, then they might be able to surprise.

Drivers: There is little to choose between Scott Speed or Tonio Liuzzi for the forthcoming race; both are capable of putting together great laps, and each tends to start races well. Although there is a very real chance they will spend much of the race fighting each other, they will provide difficult competition for any midfield runners who get caught behind them.

Objectives: Qualify well and make the most of any opportunities that present themselves.

Super Aguri Honda

Super Aguri teammates Sakon Yamamoto and Takuma Sato © Super Aguri F1 Images

Shanghai did little to forward the Super Aguri cause, with the cars tidily occupying the back row of the grid, nearly taking each over out at the start. Sato competed with Williams, Toyota and Toro Rosso but ultimately found himself disqualified for blocking. That said, they did put in some competitive laps.

Japan is a home race not only for the team but both drivers - this is the only one that really matters in their inaugural year, and what advances the car has sported to date are aimed at putting together a decent performance here this weekend.

A good result would be qualifying off the back row and finishing ahead of anyone: Toro Rosso's power increase makes them a tougher target than Spyker-MF1, but the package should at least have the legs to keep them honest in this race.

Drivers: Takuma Sato has an eye on Suzuka, seeing an opportunity for his experience to bring some advantage as the team head there for the first (and only) time. Sakon Yamamoto has finally completed a full race distance, which bodes well for his first Japanese GP.

Objectives: Beat anyone, qualifying or the race, preferably both.