The 2006 German GP Preview

After seeing Ferrari and Bridgestone steal the thunder from Michelin and Renault in France, the circus is heading to Germany and then Hungary for back-to-back races at the Hockenheimring and Hungaroring.

Analysis

The forthcoming races, whilst not dipolar, will certainly stretch the teams in different directions: before challenging the specifics, the broader questions that need to be asked are, has Michelin dropped the ball and let Bridgestone back in to the game? And who has been getting the most from their in-season developments?

Judging by the pace of Ferrari in France, it seems that the tyre equation has been changed: certainly the softer tyres that Bridgestone had available proved to be ideal for Schumacher, whilst Renault were too aggressive with their option, and too conservative with their prime tyres.

But it is not sure that Bridgestone have a technological advantage; rather, they have simply done a better job than Michelin at identifying the best options for their team at the last two circuits - and that can be expected to change.

But there is a twist. With the FIA banning "mass dampers" which work in sympathy with the tyres across bumps, the more compliant structure of Michelin tyres means that the teams on French rubber will lose more performance - and despite the FIA considering the device an aid to aerodynamics, the impact from this is going to be particularly relevant to the mechanical grip-oriented Hungary circuit.

Germany is another 'standard' European circuit, requiring medium-high downforce, good balance and decent acceleration. Good strategy that emphasises speed at the right time to pass during pitstops will again be more important than outright speed as overtaking is tough.

Hungary is very much like Monaco, except lower in glamour: qualifying well and then race day strategy is going to be what it is about. The teams will again pull out all the stops looking for downforce and run very soft tyres in the quest for grip. Torque and smooth power curves far more important than peak power from the engines.

Flashback Germany

After dominating practice, Kimi Raikkonen put the car comprehensively on pole for the race: Montoya should have locked out the front row, but a final corner mistake saw him in the barriers (and starting last) instead. Button was second, ahead of an uncharacteristically mistake loaded qualifying run from Alonso, with Fisichella just behind in fourth. Michael Schumacher lined up fifth ahead of Webber and Heidfeld. Coulthard was eleventh with Ralf Schumacher and Felipe Massa just behind.

On race day, Raikkonen started cleanly whilst Button dropped to fourth - a fast starting Schumacher holding on around the outside through turn one. Sato seemed to lock up in to the corner, running in to Webber and breaking the Williams' suspension... the resulting incident forcing a number of the mid-pack cars around the outside. Sato then ran in to Fisichella on his way in to turn three, losing his nose. Fisichella lost a couple of places as a result, slotting in to eighth and continuing with marred handling.

Montoya was the man to watch on the opening lap - he made his way up to eleventh in a single circuit, mostly on the opening three corners... he passed Ralf on the next lap. Sato, Trulli and Webber pitted for repairs.

The race settled down soon after with Raikkonen sitting on a four second advantage over Alonso, with Schumacher and Button falling back. The first round of stops took place with Alonso and Schumacher on lap 22, ending with Montoya on 27; the Colombian moving up to fifth.

Raikkonen's commanding race came to an end on lap 36 as his hydraulics failed, leaving Alonso to inherit the lead. Both Ferrari drivers were starting to struggle with their tyres by now: Button finally making his way past Schumacher for second on lap 44. Montoya meanwhile was conserving fuel and pounded out quick laps just before his next stop, moving up to second place.

On the run to the finish, the struggling Schumacher gave up another place to Fisichella, but otherwise little happened.

Pos  Driver        Team                  Time
 1.  Alonso        Renault           (M)  1h26:28.599
 2.  Montoya       McLaren-Mercedes  (M)  +    22.569
 3.  Button        BAR-Honda         (M)  +    24.422
 4.  Fisichella    Renault           (M)  +    50.587
 5.  M.Schumacher  Ferrari           (B)  +    51.690
 6.  R.Schumacher  Toyota            (M)  +    52.242
 7.  Coulthard     Red Bull-Cosworth (M)  +    52.700
 8.  Massa         Sauber-Petronas   (M)  +    56.570

Fastest lap: Raikkonen, 1:14.873

Flashback Hungary

Fernando Alonso was caught in a first turn incident in the 2005 Hungarian GP © LAT

Qualifying saw the paddock surprised by Michael Schumacher on pole, as the driver made the most of a Ferrari upturn in fortune. Montoya was second after a mistake on the first corner, whilst Trulli's blistering effort was sufficient for third. Raikkonen's fourth was testament to his speed (he was first to run in the session), whilst Alonso was sixth, twelfth and Webber sixteenth after a terrible session.

The race start was relatively uneventful, Schumacher holding his lead over Montoya with Raikkonen moving up to third. However, Trulli struggled off the lead, causing the pack to bunch up around him and precipitating Barrichello running in to the back of his car. Alonso ran in to Ralf Schumacher who squeezed him, requiring the Renault to pit for a new nose.

Klien rolled through 360 degrees after his car was clipped by Villeneuve, and Albers ran in to Monteiro after being clipped by Webber. Furthermore, as Alonso wended his way back to the pits, his wing came adrift, being hit by Coulthard who exited violently.

At the front, Montoya allowed Raikkonen through to make the most of his three stop strategy, and the Finn haunted Schumacher's tail until he stopped on lap 11. Schumacher stopped on lap 15, returning just ahead of Raikkonen. The two stoppers, including Montoya, Sato, Button and Fisichella, came in from laps 21 through 29. Afterwards, Raikkonen was pushing Schumacher consistently at the front but could find no way past; Montoya was close behind - with one fewer stop pending.

Schumacher made his second stop a lap earlier than Raikkonen, costing him a place; then, on lap 41, Montoya who looked like winning comfortably, retired with a broken driveshaft.

Massa pitted early with a small fire: the team fitted new coils and sent him out again; the next round of stops ensued, with Ralf Schumacher making up almost enough speed to pip his brother for second! In the end, however, Raikkonen strolled to the win with Schumacher fending off his brother to fill the podium.

Pos  Driver        Team                  Time
 1.  Raikkonen     McLaren-Mercedes (M)  1h37.25.552
 2.  M.Schumacher  Ferrari          (B)  +    35.581
 3.  R.Schumacher  Toyota           (M)  +    36.129
 4.  Trulli        Toyota           (M)  +    54.221
 5.  Button        BAR-Honda        (M)  +    58.832
 6.  Heidfeld      Williams-BMW     (M)  +  1:08.375
 7.  Webber        Williams-BMW     (M)  +     1 lap
 8.  Sato          BAR-Honda        (M)  +     1 lap

Fastest lap: Raikkonen, 1:21.200

Tyres

Bridgestone would love to confirm their return to form by making their hat-trick, and if the FIA's mass damper ban really impacts Renault to the tune of three tenths of a second per lap, they ought to have a definite advantage for the next two races.

Strategy

In Germany, the dirty side of the track is a problem off the grid, so locking out the front row is not necessarily an advantage! Still, a good qualifying is important, so lighter fuel loads can be expected from those fighting for pole, but race day should reward drivers who load up with fuel and opt for a long first stint. The race itself ought to be a two-stop affair.

In Hungary, where the tight, twisty circuit makes overtaking a difficult proposition, qualifying is vital for a good result: front-running teams will tend to take out fuel in order to move forward; accordingly, there should be a mix of two and three stopping drivers at the front: three stops is fastest, provided there is no problem with traffic.

Further back, a well balanced single stop may be useful as it would give the drivers a chance to make up places, but it is unlikely to yield a podium without the aid of rain or a safety car.

Conclusions

In Germany, there is a reasonable chance that little will change since France, unless Michelin step up their game. The circuit offers a little more overtaking opportunity, but is still going to reward similar characteristics, and few of the teams will be significantly different.

Ferrari and Renault should fight to win it, with Toyota and McLaren working to finish behind - and effectively showing which tyre company has an advantage at the moment.

It will be interesting to see what progress Super Aguri make with their new chassis!

On the other hand, Hungary is probably going to be somewhat different - Ferrari are going to expect to be very strong, whilst Williams and McLaren could both produce real surprises, especially in qualifying. The race will be all about qualifying and strategy as overtaking is really awkward.

A lap of Hockenheim with Kimi Raikkonen

Powering down the pit straight at the revised Hockenheim circuit, you reach 305km/h in sixth gear before dabbing the brakes for the fast Nordkurve. Taken at 211km/h, it is important to maintain your speed through this right-hander. Jumping the curbs as you exit, you accelerate along to Parabolika, a tight right hander, which we believe will be negotiated at 93km/h in second and marks the beginning of the new section of the track.

A slight left hander immediately follows Parabolika and flicks you onto a long sweeping left curve. Taken flat out, it is estimated that you will reach speeds of 326km/h in sixth gear, before braking dramatically for the right-handed hairpin that has replaced the Ostkurve. Probably taken at some 59km/h, it is the tightest corner on the track and sees you rejoin the old circuit momentarily.

Accelerating out, it is estimated that you will reach 285km/h in sixth before braking for the new Spitzkehre complex. This begins with a fast right hander that will probably see speeds of 96km/h in second gear. A quick burst of power follows along a short straight, before negotiating a tighter left hander.

A slight left kink is followed by a sweeping right hander, which will take you back onto the original back straight. You will again build up speed at full throttle as you burst out of the forest and into the Stadium complex. The Mobil 1 Kurve marks the entry to the complex and this fast right hander is taken in fourth gear at 205km/h.

Next is the long left hairpin of Sachs, shifting down into second it is negotiated at 111km/h. The track then sweeps through a slight left-right kink on the approach to the final section of the Stadium complex and the lap, the Sudkurve. This double apex right hand hairpin is taken at some 169km/h in third and leads you back onto the start-finish straight to begin another lap.

Team by Team

Renault

France marked an interesting turn for Renault, who made the most of a disadvantage in order to finish second. A solid effort afforded Alonso a chance to minimise damage but there is a lot of work to be done if they are to take the championship.

There is an engine update available in Germany that should provide a small performance step, above the usual aerodynamic update. Whether it is enough to close the gap on Ferrari - or even make up for the loss of the mass-damping system - remains to be seen, but the next couple of races are probably going to be tough.

Still, if they can limit the damage to two points from each, then they should remain in a commanding position for the final stages of the championships.

Drivers: Fernando Alonso continues to produce solid results and maximise his points - the reigning champion is clearly not beating about the bush with the defence of his title. However, the team are going to have to get a little more out of their package if he is to be able to win.

Giancarlo Fisichella's form is not so great, with abysmal luck or graining or other balance issues marring his pace and leaving him looking ordinary alongside Alonso. Even so, he needs to up his game, if only to run interference against Massa and maximise his teammate's points advantage.

Objectives: Win both races.

Pedro de la Rosa continues at McLaren © McLaren

McLaren Mercedes

With Bridgestone having a good weekend, McLaren were a little further from the front than usual in France - though they had a good weekend, relatively speaking.

Although the car is not on the pace of Renault, they normally expect to run ahead of Toyota, so chasing the Japanese outfit home was not anticipated. In Germany, that means another team are going to have to be factored in to the equation as competition for 'best of the rest' as it is going to be hard to fight for a podium.

Hungary may be slightly different. The team looked very good in Monaco - and their drivers may have the legs at the Hungaroring to take points away from Renault (which would make the championships interesting), though beating Ferrari will be harder if there is a Bridgestone advantage at that time.

Drivers: Pedro de la Rosa made a strong showing in France, perhaps earning himself a seat for most of the remaining season. Another couple of solid outings would do no harm.

Kimi Raikkonen has been putting together some solid performances, when the car has let him: it seems unfortunate that whenever the car can outperform their rivals, they can't get it to the finish.

Objectives: Qualify well and fight for the podium, perhaps win Hungary.

Ferrari

With a brace of wins under their belt, Ferrari have to expect at least one more from the next couple of races. A small Bridgestone advantage was sufficient to ensure a comfortable win for Schumacher whilst Massa lost out after playing a tactical game to ensure his team leader was unmolested by Alonso.

The package should remain effective in Germany, so another close fight against Renault is likely to be on the cards. Any tyre advantage will probably be the decisive factor as both teams have drivers who make very few mistakes and the packages are otherwise comparable.

On the other hand, Hungary is probably going to be a Ferrari benefit: considering Schumacher's pace in Monaco, where he managed a decent finish after starting dead last, it would be no surprise to see the drivers running unassailable at the front unless Michelin have considerably improved their game.

Drivers: With Schumacher headed to one of his home Grands Prix, the German can expect plenty of support from the partisan crowd, for what this is worth. He will be expecting to finish on the podium at both races.

More importantly, Massa is going to be a key piece of the puzzle to get Schumacher back in the game: whenever there is a performance advantage, he has to finish in front of Alonso in order to give his teammate a shot at the title.

Objectives: Win both races, with both drivers ahead of Alonso at least once.

Jarno Trulli and Ralf Schumacher, Toyota TF106Bs © LAT

Toyota

Continuing to make the most of Bridgestone's ascendancy, Toyota had a good outing in France, qualifying well despite heavy fuel loads and running comfortably ahead of McLaren: it was a very good weekend despite Trulli retiring with engine and brake problems.

There was a chance that Toyota's improved form was purely down to a Bridgestone advantage in the States, but the last outing confirms that the package really has moved forwards. Making it to the podium will still be tough with Renault and Ferrari on form, but that is what they have to be shooting for in Germany.

Monaco was perhaps not the best showing from Toyota, but they were struggling at that point of the season: this time around, this package should be capable of a decent qualifying session followed by a strong race. They should be looking at both cars in the points.

Drivers: Ralf Schumacher has been picking up his game in recent races, and the points are coming in. Jarno Trulli is well matched, but seems to be able to find rough luck whenever there is some to find! Both drivers are capable of stunning performances on their day, and they are apparently working well at the moment.

Objectives: Qualify well and score points - perhaps a podium.

Williams Cosworth

There was some cause for hope in France, as Williams were quick enough to sneak into the final session in qualifying - the car recovering some of the Saturday pace that has recently been lacking. Unfortunately, on race day they were overheating their tyres, which led to Webber's tyre giving up and Rosberg having to stop for checks.

Despite being slowed by overheating tyres, the car was quick enough to threaten scoring a point in France, so having resolved that problem, there should be sufficient pace available that they can look to score in Germany.

Perhaps Williams best remaining scoring opportunity this season is going to come from Hungary. Bearing in mind the excellent performance put on by Webber in Monaco before the car failed, this package has the potential to work well and perhaps fight for a podium finish.

Drivers: Mark Webber is still getting something out of the car in qualifying, but with the package being out-developed compared against the front-running teams, that still leaves him struggling to make the final session on Saturday.

Nico Rosberg has been struggling to match his teammate. Whether it is due to lacking the experience of Webber for driving around problems, or he is still settling in, it is noticeable that his performance has fallen off from the electric display at the opening race of the season.

Objectives: score points - particularly in Hungary.

The Honda F1 pitwall © LAT

Honda

It was a dismal performance from Honda in France, where they qualified poorly and raced little better, ending with two engine failures. Considering they were supposed to have had a step forward, it is difficult to see why they appear to be going backwards, but they are up against it now.

Since then, a couple of decent tests have shown promise: the team have been improving braking stability and identifying tyres for future races. It seems unlikely that they will have made a dramatic step forward, but it is important that they stop the rot, and even if they are unable to score points, they have to threaten to compete.

For Germany, any small improvement will be a welcome step forward, but the more interesting test will be Hungary. Looking back to Monaco, Barrichello finished fourth whilst Button struggled to get anything out of the car - so it seems that some performance might be possible, but extracting it will be the problem.

Drivers: After a string of tough weekends, Jenson Button seems to be falling into the shadow of his teammate: the Briton is in need of a good outing from at least one of the next weekends. On the positive side, his race pace appears to be good, but without a qualifying performance to match, his chances of scoring remain low.

Rubens Barrichello is clearly much more comfortable in the car now and seems to be on top of the job - it is particularly encouraging that he is able to find some good performances when his teammate is struggling, but at this point he is clearly limited by the chassis.

Objectives: Get into the final qualifying session, show improvement - and target a points finish in Hungary.

Red Bull Racing Ferrari

It was a disappointing weekend for Red Bull in France, as they just finished out of the points after struggling through practice to get the car dialled in - without the experience of Coulthard to drive around the problems, it is likely they would have nothing positive to report at all, but he had a halfway decent qualifying session and race.

Little will be different at Hockenheim, except that there is a different track surface; it seems likely the team will get the car dialled in earlier, in which case they stand a chance of fighting for top ten finishes.

Although they would be hoping that Hungary represents a chance of repeating Coulthard's Monaco podium, the front runners are less likely to be obliging, but they have to be optimistic about scoring points.

Drivers: David Coulthard continues to show the way for the team: whilst occasionally outperformed, he always seems to find performance when the going gets tough; whilst Germany offers little to differentiate, he ought to be able to get more from the twisty Hungary circuit.

Based on his performances, Christian Klien's quest to keep his seat is looking tough - as the pressure continues to mount on him to consistently outperform his teammate, rather then stepping up, he seems to be buckling. He needs to get focused.

Objectives: Fight for top ten finish in Germany - and points in Hungary.

BMW Sauber

A solid outing in France earned the team another point: this car is improving faster than usual for BMW Sauber, reflecting their increased spend on in-season aerodynamic development. The package is delivering results that are surprisingly close to far better funded rivals.

They will be looking to take that improved form (and an aero update) to Germany, where scraping another point is a distinct possibility, provided they can get the car in to top shape for qualifying. For Hungary, the improved aerodynamics on the car might allow the team to improve on the seventh place scored at the similar Monaco circuit, though there will probably be fewer retirements from front-runners.

Jacques Villeneuve and Nick Heidfeld © XPB/LAT

Drivers: Nick Heidfeld will be looking forward to some crowd support at his home event - and any lift will be good news to the team, as they often seem to be on the edge of scoring points.

Jacques Villeneuve's season picked up, seeing him performing at the same level as Quick Nick, but the last outing was marred by a disappointing qualifying: he needs to do better on his Saturday afternoons, and then race day should come together.

Objectives: Sort out qualifying, then the points will keep trickling in.

Midland Toyota

Despite continued development - which saw them get in to the second qualifying session in France - the team are struggling to maintain the development pace to close the gap with their more advanced rivals.

This is likely to be reflected at the forthcoming races, too. The car is seeing new parts coming through, if infrequently, but the team are going to be keeping a weather eye on the new Super Aguri chassis, as they will discover themselves going backwards fast if it is any good.

Clearly a place holder season as they work on a better challenger for next season, whilst management is playing politics over engine deals, these races are still important as learning exercises, and with each halfway decent outing they provide a solid boost for moral at the team.

Drivers: Tiago Monteiro had a hydraulic failure to ruin his French race, but ought to bounce back and finish the next couple of events, provided the car is reliable. Consistency remains his hallmark, leaving him a good benchmark for his teammate.

Christijan Albers seems to be happy with the way the car is developing - beating Monteiro might not be the only objective in this race, as he was clearly lining up Williams Rosberg last time out.

Objectives: Avoid losing ground to the competition.

Toro Rosso Cosworth

France was a decent outing for the team, with Speed qualifying fifteenth and finishing tenth, despite back pains from an accident. Although they are now clearly showing the handicap from their engine, they seem to be delivering good performances on race day.

The races ahead should be interesting. Germany is unlikely to be far different to France, with the drivers pushing to get in to the second qualifying session and struggling to finish in the top ten.

However, the Hungarian event might be an opportunity to step up their game: the engine's smooth power curve and solid torque should remove their power handicap, whilst the season's aerodynamic developments and evolved understanding of their tyres should give them a chance to surprise - and perhaps score a point on merit, though that would be a big task.

Drivers: Scott Speed's performance in France was perhaps his best to date, and certainly bodes well if he can keep improving. Whilst shooting to beat his teammate is going to be the key to Germany, he will be aiming to get to finish well in Hungary.

Takuma Sato tests the new Super Aguri SF06 Honda © Super Aguri

Tonio Liuzzi's greater (if limited) experience earlier in the season handed him some advantage over his teammate, but that advantage has now evaporated and he will have to fight harder for the remainder of the season. After finishing tenth in Monaco, he will be hoping to do better in Hungary.

Objectives: Get into the second sessions in qualifying, aim for top ten finishes.

Super Aguri Honda

With their new car finally available, Super Aguri could be a surprise. The new car ought to be a significant step forward from the old Arrows chassis, but it could take the team a couple of race weekends to learn how to get the most out of it - just finding a good baseline set-up is likely to take out most of their Friday practice.

On the positive side, this is finally an opportunity for the team to show they are there to do more than just make up numbers. If the car is reliable, it ought to finally be at least a match for the Midlands. And if it is unreliable, it will be no worse than their old beast.

Drivers: Takuma Sato continues to pound around for the team, and despite being outqualified in France has shown that he remains consistently the man to beat at this outfit.

The team will be trotting out a new Japanese driver for these races though: Sakon Yamamoto will be at the wheel of the second car for both races whilst Frenchman Montagny returns to third driver duties.

Objectives: Get both cars to the finish and work on baseline set-ups.