The 2006 French Grand Prix Preview

The eleventh Grand Prix of 2006 takes place at Circuit de Nevers near Magny Cours in France, home for Renault and Michelin. This circuit is renowned for corners named after other circuits, a smooth but abrasive surface, high temperatures and occasional rain storms.

Analysis

Back in Europe, overtaking is going to become a scarce commodity as the circus heads to France, unless there is rain. Last year, Jarno Trulli illustrated the importance of qualifying well as his slow race pace prevented any real challenge to Fernando Alonso: strategy will play a key part in picking up places this weekend.

Teams that do best here typically have good power and aerodynamics; strong balance and mechanical grip for the slower corners helps, but is less important. Hot weather means that effective cooling is usually vital, so cars will be opening up the bodywork here.

Flashback

The six-car US Grand Prix changed the order for qualifying, but that was not enough to stop Alonso taking pole ahead of Trulli, who edged Raikkonen [then pushed down to thirteenth for an engine change] and Schumacher. Sato was fifth with a solid lap for BAR-Honda.

A hot Sunday afternoon saw a clean start, with both BAR drivers losing out on the drag to the first corner, though Klien's Red Bull stopped after a lap with a fuel pressure problem. Raikkonen managed to pass Villeneuve on the second lap, then the race turned in to a parade - Trulli being just quick enough to prevent anyone from passing, but critically allowing Alonso to build a comfortable lead.

The first round of stops saw Fisichella drop to tenth (Renault had a problem with his fuelling rig) whilst Ferrari short fuelled their drivers to pass Trulli - he dropped to fifth. Sato dropped to ninth when he ran wide on lap 27... Raikkonen meanwhile was running long, making the most of clear track as those ahead stopped to move in to a strong second place after his stop. The Minardi's retired with tyre failures, after the engineers forgot to put on the valve caps.

Around lap 39 the second set of stops started with Barrichello, seeing Alonso remain in the lead, a lap ahead of fourth place Barrichello; some minor shuffling took place with the back markers, but the best entertainment was Sato sliding out again on an oil spill. Third stopping Alonso retained his lead, whilst Fisichella's fourth place disappeared when his engine stalled in the pits.

Pos  Driver        Team                  Time
 1.  Alonso        Renault          (M)  1h31.22.233
 2.  Raikkonen     McLaren-Mercedes (M)  +    11.805
 3.  M.Schumacher  Ferrari          (B)  +  1:21.914
 4.  Button        BAR-Honda        (M)  +     1 lap
 5.  Trulli        Toyota           (M)  +     1 lap
 6.  Fisichella    Renault          (M)  +     1 lap
 7.  R.Schumacher  Toyota           (M)  +     1 lap
 8.  Villeneuve    Sauber-Petronas  (M)  +     1 lap

Fastest lap: Raikkonen, 1:16.423

Weather

With predicted temperatures in the mid thirties and moderate winds, expect a hot track surface. Thunderstorms could roll through at any time, particularly on Saturday.

Tyres

After an overly cautious US Grand Prix, Michelin are heading to their home track for the last time as a supplier in Formula One: this is one that they have been targeting for the win, with home team Renault in particular looking forward to this event.

Bridgestone would love the opportunity to beard Renault and Michelin at their home event, but doing so will require a noticeable step forward in performance: this is not impossible, but it is unlikely.

Strategy

The quest for a good grid position is likely to lead teams to three stop, or short fuel for the first stint of a two-stop race: a short pitlane and high wear rate opens up the options; however, the eleventh placed and beyond should be able to benefit from fuelling for a longer run.

Conclusions

Montoya's move to NASCAR is likely to produce some speculation this weekend, but with his immediate departure, the focus should return to the race at hand in short order.

Renault must again be favourites for the win, and both drivers should be on form for them; Michael Schumacher and Kimi Raikkonen remain credible threats and ought to keep the fight at the front interesting, particularly if they are working on divergent strategies - there will be little overtaking on track unless it rains.

Behind the front runners, it should be tight in the battle for points paying positions: BMW are improving, Honda think they have made a step forward and Toyota are buoyant after their US success. Williams also believe their new package is a step forward, and clearly they can't all finish in the points: this race should be a good indicator of how they will all be performing relative to each other for the next few races.

A lap of Magny-Cours with Kimi Raikkonen

A burst of acceleration along the short pit straight at Magny Cours sees you reach 298km/h in sixth gear on the approach to Grand Courbe, before dabbing the brakes slightly to take the flat out long left hander.

The sweeping right hander of Estoril follows immediately, and you must keep as much speed as possible as the corner swings you round 180-degrees onto the longest and fastest section of the track, Golf.

Powering along the back straight, which has a gentle curve to the right, you reach speeds of 306km/h in sixth gear before braking hard for the Adelaide hairpin, which is a good overtaking opportunity. A first gear right hander, you pull some 1.6g as you slow to 58km/h to negotiate the tight bend.

You push hard on the throttle as you exit, reaching 290km/h in sixth gear along the straight, through the slight right kink, before dabbing the brakes for the fast Nurburgring chicane. You take the right-left weave at some 232km/h in fifth.

Flicking up through the gears, you briefly touch 260km/h in fifth gear on the approach to the second hairpin. Wider than Adelaide, and therefore slightly quicker, the 180-degree left hander is taken at 84km/h in second gear. On the power on the exit through another right-left weave, you reach 296km/h in sixth on the approach to the fast fourth gear Imola chicane. The track dips as you take the right-left chicane at 228km/h.

A short burst of acceleration takes you to the Chateau d'Eau, the long right hander, which has been altered slightly, sees you slow from 237km/h in fifth to 101km/h in second. Accelerating out you reach 310km/h along the new approach to Lycee, which has a gentle curve to the left. We will have to brake hard for the sharp right of Lycee, which is taken at 71km/h in first, and leads back onto the start-finish straight, through a right-left kink, to begin another lap.

Team by Team

Renault

Despite being on the back foot to Ferrari in Indianapolis, the team made a good job of minimising the impact, with a podium finish contributing to the points haul.

Heading to their official home Grand Prix, Michelin are generally expected to be back on form and offer their teams the performance to match. For Renault, that ought to result in their return to parity at the front of the grid - which makes them the team to beat again.

For this event, the team are expected to have more revisions to their package, and with both drivers currently on song, they should be aiming to have both of them on the podium this time out.

Drivers: Fernando Alonso's US Grand Prix was disappointing as he was never able to quite dial the car in; however, the reigning champion still brought home valuable points and retains a strong position overall. Of course, it is expected to be another story in France, which represents another good opportunity to win.

Giancarlo Fisichella had the better of his teammate all weekend in the States, which is a good portent for his future as the team's leader; however, there is little to be made from the feat unless he is capable of repeating it, and fairly regularly at that: beating Alonso remains his objective for the weekend.

Objectives: Win the race - both cars on the podium.

Pedro de la Rosa replaces Juan Pablo Montoya for the French Grand Prix © XPB/LAT

McLaren Mercedes

Not only did McLaren fail to bring back points from Indianapolis, they left Montoya there to boot: the Colombian's departure for NASCAR brings to a close his Formula One career and opens the team to a new quandary over who should drive their cars for the remainder of the season.

In a company with the size and organisation of McLaren, the upheaval of losing a key player mid-season is going to be complex, but ought largely to be controlled - externally at least, they will be looking to show a seamless transition, but they will align even more strongly behind Raikkonen.

For France, the team seem to be in good shape - testing showed that the tyre programme is yielding some results and the new developments coming show promise. It seems they are closing in on Renault for absolute performance, but their pace over a full-race distance remains an unknown. Still, finishing on the podium should be achievable.

Drivers: Kimi Raikkonen has shown flashes of speed in the McLaren at times, but the package has clearly not been on a par with Renault for the season to date; perhaps France is finally the opportunity to climb to the top step of the podium, though that would be a big move.

Pedro de la Rosa has worked hard for the team, putting in solid work in test sessions; this is another excellent opportunity for him to show that he is good enough for a race seat, and any points he scores are a bonus for the team this weekend, whilst a great outing could earn him a place for the rest of the season.

Objectives: Qualify well - podium finish.

Ferrari

It was a perfect weekend at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway for Ferrari, as they comfortably dominated every session: with Michelin off their game, this was a Bridgestone benefit and Ferrari were there to make the most of the occasion.

Looking ahead to France, it has to be said that Ferrari would love the opportunity to repeat their last weekend at Michelin and Renault's home event, but they are very unlikely to be able to do so unless the French tyre manufacturer gets it very wrong: this should be a return to service as normal, which would see Renault as the team to beat - with Raikkonen likely to be in the mix to boot.

For Ferrari to win here, they are going to require a very strong strategy, making the most of any period they can find in the life cycle where their Bridgestone tyres let them outperform the Michelin-shod rivals.

Drivers: Michael Schumacher has a solid record in France, and is as motivated to win as ever; he is not afraid of driving hard or working on a difficult strategy - he should be worth watching. Certainly he considers the championship attainable and will be working to maximise every opportunity for the remainder of the season.

Felipe Massa had a good run in the States but was not on a par with his teammate; whilst his performances are improving each week, unless he has developed a particular penchant for the Circuit de Nevers, this week should prove no exception.

Objectives: Win.

Toyota teammates Ralf Schumacher and Jarno Trulli on the Indianapolis banking © LAT

Toyota

The upturn in Toyota's form at Indianapolis shows just how much this team have been struggling to get the most from their Bridgestones. Jarno Trulli's run after starting in the pitlane saw him beat the world champion (not to mention his teammate) so there is little doubt that they made the most of their tyre advantage.

With continuous evolution a significant part of the Toyota programme, the team are expecting to see another step forward in their performance this weekend - though it is likely to be masked by the resurgence of the Michelin teams, unless their supplier is off form again.

Repeating the great run from the last event is unlikely, but the team have to be looking for both cars to make the final ten in qualifying, then finish in the points.

Drivers: Ralf Schumacher has put in some strong races in France, though he tends to be better on race day than in qualifying. Jarno Trulli, by contrast, has an affinity with the circuit which lends itself towards his solid qualifying record here, but tends to do less well during the race.

Objectives: Top ten qualifying and finish in the points.

Williams Cosworth

Williams really struggled for grip at the low downforce circuits, even at Indianapolis where Bridgestone had an advantage. Despite the low budget, their engine is still being lauded as a match for any front runner, leaving the chassis as cause for concern.

Fortunately, the return to Europe sees the team with their next evolution on the aerodynamic package, with some confidence that they are making a solid step forwards. Considering the progress of their competition, this is overdue: the car seems to have been falling off the pace as the season has progressed, so this is an important opportunity to show improved form and shoot for some points.

With Michelin expected to pull out all the stops at their home event, getting a good result is going to require Williams to demonstrate considerably far better understanding of how to get the most from their Bridgestone tyres. Certainly an upgraded Cosworth engine will not go amiss as they look for points from the weekend.

Drivers: Mark Webber is looking forward to testing the improvements against the competition; the improvements should give him more confidence in the car, which in turn should see at least his qualifying pace pick up.

Nico Rosberg's star is in danger of being eclipsed by his machinery: the youngster is still quick, but doesn't have a package that lets him deliver. Perhaps there is a question mark over his race-day concentration in the under-competitive car?

Objectives: Score points.

Honda

After a miserable trip across the pond, Honda have to be looking forward to better luck in France. They have a revised aerodynamic package that is supposed to offer some improvements - and this is a good place to make a step forward - but scoring decent points is still likely to be difficult.

Recently, the team seem to have been able to find some speed, which bodes well for qualifying but they are losing ground on race day; their latest package update should help with both, but they really have to get more longevity out of their tyres if they are going to score decent points.

Nick Fry, Andrew Shovlin, Yasuhiro Wada, Jenson Button © LAT

Drivers: Jenson Button is looking for an upturn in fortune, as his recent events have been marred by poor luck; with Rubens Barrichello looking stronger all the time, the team finally seem to have drivers who are roughly on a par and both able to contribute.

Anthony Davidson continues to provide sterling service on Fridays, and again will be pivotal in establishing baseline set-ups and run the tyre programme, so the team should have a decent start to the weekend.

Objectives: Qualify in the top ten and score points.

Red Bull Racing Ferrari

In fairness, Red Bull made the most of their weekend in Indianapolis to bring home points after struggling all weekend to get grip and balance with their cars. It was a decent showing under the circumstances, and easy to overlook as Coulthard spent a large part of the race fending off a Toro Rosso.

France is unlikely to provide as much opportunity; although Coulthard often runs well there, many of the front running teams are arriving with significant updates: provided they are reliable, they are probably going to leave Red Bull fighting to get into the top ten, let alone the points.

Drivers: David Coulthard has a good record in France and ought to be motivated for the weekend ahead, but his best chance for a result would be from inclement weather interfering with the race. Christian Klien continues to face the challenge of earning his seat with the team, so he absolutely has to start outperforming his teammate in qualifying and the race on a regular basis without taking too many risks and putting himself out of the race.

Objectives: Beat BMW-Sauber.

BMW Sauber

Indianapolis was a missed opportunity for BMW, as Heidfeld rolled and retired in the first corner incident, whilst an engine failure on lap 23 saw Villeneuve removed from the picture.

On the other hand, France in 2005 saw the team score a point: this place has been kind to Sauber and they could well have the form to repeat the experience this season too, provided Michelin have any sort of superiority.

The team have been working on some revisions to the aerodynamic package, including vertical fins on the nose that are expected to make an appearance this weekend; provided the FIA don't ban them on safety grounds, these should provide improved aerodynamic stability on turning into medium and higher speed corners.

Drivers: Jacques Villeneuve and Nick Heidfeld will both be starting the race with new engines, and they will need to put on a solid show on Saturday if they are to have much chance in the race; should they both make the top ten, the team is likely to split strategies between two and three stops.

Relying on Robert Kubica as third driver to do the bulk of their tyre work, the team ought to find a good balance and work out their tyre options in fairly short order.

Objectives: Qualify in the top ten - and score points.

Midland teammates Tiago Monteiro and Christijan Albers © XPB/LAT

Midland Toyota

Despite having little to write home about from this season, Midland are sending out positive messages about the progress they are making relative to their competition. This is normally the practice of underperforming teams that are putting some polish on a sales pitch, but the whole paddock is aware that owner Alex Shnaider is considering an offer. Perhaps he is looking to add to the price tag?

Realistically, whilst the team really have been improving, the teams they are comparing themselves against (like Williams) are expecting significant updates for France; accordingly, they are going to have to keep bringing on their own developments at an increasing rate if they are to keep closing the gap. Expectations for the race ahead are not overly high.

Drivers: Albers and Monteiro nearly avoided the first corner carnage in Indy, but took sufficient damage that their cars failed during the race. After both made it through to Q2 in qualifying, they will again be expecting a reasonable showing (probably light fuelled) in qualifying, followed by an indifferent race.

Objectives: Beat Toro Rosso.

Toro Rosso Cosworth

Having finally scored their first point, chasing down a Red Bull, Toro Rosso must consider their US Grand Prix weekend a big success, though it will be tough to repeat that feat without further extenuating circumstances this weekend.

Despite their restricted V10, Toro Rosso has been showing some halfway decent speed, once they reduce the drag: the car is surprisingly close to the Red Bull package for race day performance, which is unexpected. It implies, at least, that they have maintained the pace of development that the senior outfit have managed.

Looking at France, there is little about the circuit to set expectations for points this weekend, unless it rains: in which case, the engine restrictions will become irrelevant, and the relatively smooth power curve will be an advantage.

Drivers: Scott Speed will be looking to make up for the disappointment of his early retirement in front of his home crowd - leaving Vitantonio Liuzzi to chase Coulthard home and score a point. Both will be motivated to do one better this weekend and finish ahead of the senior team.

Objectives: Finish ahead of a Red Bull.

Super Aguri Honda

A solid qualifying performance by Sato - beating a Williams and Toyotas - was overshadowed by the dismal race performance, but at least the team have finally shown some sign of becoming vaguely competitive.

The revised chassis that was due for the French Grand Prix is not going to materialise, however: that is now deferred a further race, leaving the team working with their old chassis once more. So again, they will be fighting to stay off the back of the grid.

Drivers: Takuma Sato's qualifying at Indianapolis was the highlight of their trip across the pond; a repeat in France would be nice, if difficult. Franck Montagny, finally confirmed for France, will be hoping his home crowd can lift him off the back of the grid.

Objectives: Get both cars to the finish - beat anyone.