The 2006 European Grand Prix Preview

After the thrilling San Marino Grand Prix, which saw Fernando Alonso and Michael Schumacher fighting a near race-long battle for the lead, the circus heads to Eifel mountains and the Nurburgring for the European Grand Prix.

Analysis

Though not a shadow of the original Nordschleife, the modern Nurburgring is an example of a modern European circuit. Requiring medium downforce, medium cooling, medium braking and not overly stressing engines, emphasis is on a rounded package with excellent traction.

Being based on a series of mostly slow corners, the circuit mostly fairly narrow, but it has a couple of quicker corners and a couple of overtaking opportunities; passing is not easy, but it is possible if the leading car fails to be effectively defensive.

A quick lap requires good traction, effective bump handling and a nimble package.

Flashback

Last season, the European Grand Prix was an excellent example of the Kimi Raikkonen's luck: the Finn was incredibly fast all weekend, but flat spotted a tyre, leading to suspension failure as he started his final lap, handing the win to Fernando Alonso.

Qualifying had seen a surprise with Nick Heidfeld on pole for Williams, ahead of Raikkonen and the second Williams of Mark Webber. Jarno Trulli had another solid session for Toyota, ahead of Juan Montoya's McLaren. Alonso was sixth. Returning from their recent race ban, BAR qualified back in thirteenth, and Schumacher struggled in front of his home fans with tenth under heavy fuel, though Barrichello was seventh.

On race day, the Trulli started by being awarded a drive through penalty after the team struggled to start his car before Heidfeld put in a slow parade lap: Fisichella then stalled in gear, resulting in a second parade lap. The start itself saw the Williams pair slow off the line, so Raikkonen moved in to the lead and Montoya sliced in front of Webber - who then failed to stop, punting the Colombian off the circuit and eliminating himself and leading to Barrichello losing a front wing.

Button struggled to hold places at the start, but most passing took place in the pits. Trulli struggled a little on cold tyres, Coulthard earned a drive through for speeding in the pits (costing Red Bull a podium finish) and Raikkonen made a mistake around the mid-point of the race, running through the gravel and turn five and handing the race lead to Heidfeld: the Finn continued to struggle under braking, flat spotting his front right tyre. Ralf Schumacher also came adrift - and out of the race - at turn five.

The final round of stops saw Raikkonen take the lead back from Heidfeld, with Alonso also finding himself ahead of the German. Massa saw a tyre delaminating and pitted for fresh rubber close to the end of the race; Raikkonen also showed signs of delamination on his flat-spotted tyre, then, at the start of the final lap, the suspension failed from the vibrations, pitching the car off the circuit... and leaving Alonso the surprised victor.

Pos  Driver        Team                  Time
 1.  Alonso        Renault           (M) 1h:31:46.648
 2.  Heidfeld      Williams-BMW      (M)  +    16.567
 3.  Barrichello   Ferrari           (B)  +    18.549
 4.  Coulthard     Red Bull-Cosworth (M)  +    31.588
 5.  M.Schumacher  Ferrari           (B)  +    50.445
 6.  Fisichella    Renault           (M)  +    51.932
 7.  Montoya       McLaren-Mercedes  (M)  +    58.173
 8.  Trulli        Toyota            (M)  +  1:11.091 

Fastest lap: Alonso, 1:30.711

Weather

Although the prediction for the Nurburgring area shows a dry race weekend is in prospect, this circuit in the mountains is famed for having its own micro-climate, meaning there is a very real chance of rain.

Tyres

Both Michelin and Bridgestone are expected to bring tyres from the soft end of their ranges to the Nurburgring, though they are hedging bets; having the race three weeks earlier has both manufacturers concerned over lower temperatures and higher chances of rain.

Bridgestone are looking to show that their San Marino form is no fluke, whilst Michelin are defending their reputation for producing slightly faster rubber so far this year. Both outfits are concerned over graining, but they are more worried about bringing tyres that will have a wide enough temperature window to keep their teams operating. Accordingly, Michelin are expected to bring tyres from a new range, which can be brought up to operating temperature considerably faster than their predecessors.

In the event of rain, Michelin will be looking to demonstrate that they really are a match for Bridgestone; however, under changing conditions, both manufactures seem to have windows with greater performance, so it remains a mystery as to who has the upper hand in the event of a full wet, or mixed wet/dry race.

Strategy

Overtaking here is not particularly easy, so qualifying is going to play an important part. Good race day strategy and slick pit-work will let drivers make up a few places, but recovering from a bad Saturday and charging to the front is not trivial.

With relatively low tyre wear characteristics and some chance of rain, higher fuel loads will be preferred, so most of the front runners can be expected to look for a long first stint and two stops - though any who miss the final cut will be likely to fill up on fuel and try a single stop.

Conclusions

Despite losing to Ferrari in San Marino, Alonso and Renault remain favourites to win; Ferrari and McLaren should be fighting for podium places, though, and anyone who makes a mistake with strategy (particularly if there are mixed wet/dry conditions) is going to lose out. Dark horses here would have to include Nick Heidfeld, who was stunning last year for Williams, and keep an eye open for Toyota in qualifying at their home Grand Prix.

A lap of Nurburgring with Gary Paffett

Powering along the start-finish straight at the Nurburgring you reach 300km/h in sixth gear, before braking hard for the entrance to the Mercedes Arena, which is a tight right hand hairpin that sees you drop into first gear.

This is immediately followed by a long 180-degree left hander and a 90-degree right hander, which swings you back round onto the straight. Powering up through the gears on the approach to the fast left of Valvoline Kurve, you brake from speeds of 275km/h in sixth gear to 196km/h in fourth gear to negotiate the sweeping bend.

A short burst on the throttle takes you to the second gear Ford Kurve, this bumpy right hander is taken at 112km/h. On the exit you accelerate downhill up to 297km/h in sixth gear as you approach the hairpin, which is taken at 94km/h in second. It is crucial to take a good line through the hairpin so that you can push hard and early on the throttle on the exit.

Up the hill towards the Michelin Kurve you reach speeds of 258km/h, lifting slightly for the left-right flick of the chicane, before braking hard for Michelin, dropping down to 148km/h in third for the 90-degree left-hander.

A similar right-hander, which is one of the most crucial corners on the circuit, follows and takes you onto the back straight. Taken flat-out, the fast, sweeping straight, with a slight right kink, sees you reach 310km/h in sixth gear as you approach the Veedol-S chicane, the main overtaking opportunity at the circuit. This is another tough braking point as you drop from the highest speed at the Nurburgring to 107km/h in second to negotiate the chicane where you have to drive aggressively over the curbs in order to carry the speed through the corner.

Accelerating out, a short burst on the throttle sees you reach 254km/h in fourth before dabbing the brakes for the final corner. Taken at 113km/h and using the whole curb as you exit, the right-hander flicks you back onto the start-finish straight to begin another lap.

Team by Team

Renault

A thrilling race for viewers for the San Marino weekend was the result of the battle between Fernando Alonso and Michael Schumacher, with the Spaniard finishing second. Giancarlo Fisichella, on the other hand, missed the final cut in qualifying and could only make it up to eighth place in the race. An effective, if imperfect weekend.

Since then, the team have continued to work hard: testing at Silverstone alongside most of their competition they showed excellent pace - though some of the quickest laps were set on experimental tyres.

The team are expected to have more minor updates on the car in Germany and are clear favourites for another win. Despite the Ferrari revival, McLaren are probably the more important threat, as they also run Michelin tyres. With Toyota and BAR expected to perform well in qualifying, strategic considerations will probably have to cater to getting past these teams, as well as retain flexibility in case of rain.

Fernando Alonso leads the podium at Imola with his 2nd place trophy © LAT

Another strong weekend, challenging for the race win, should be in order.

Drivers: Fernando Alonso has barely put a wheel wrong all season (despite a couple of scares whilst pressuring Schumacher last weekend) and there is no reason to believe he'll start now; he is expected to be the benchmark again this weekend.

Fisichella has been showing less than his full potential, something that he really has to change in the short term; a strong weekend is needed in order to restore slowly ebbing faith: he may not be able to beat Alonso, but he must do a better job of matching him.

Objectives: Both cars on the podium - with the race won.

McLaren Mercedes

Despite showing well in qualifying at Imola, McLaren struggled to show their full pace on race day; the cars are clearly quick, but all too often are unable to show their full speed as they are usually stuck in traffic.

To date, McLaren have occasionally shown fantastic speed, and are clearly very quick through the race, particularly on heavy fuel, but they seem to be struggling to get enough out of the car in qualifying to leverage it.

On the positive side, the team are prepared for their home race at the Nurburgring and will be taking a revised, more powerful engine and a revised aerodynamic package with them: the improved performance should noticeably close the gap to the front and potentially take the challenge to Renault for the race win. Of course, this also raises the chance of failures during the weekend.

Drivers: Kimi Raikkonen will be looking to restore the status quo at McLaren after seeing his teammate qualify ahead of him and finish on the podium; particularly after the disappointment of last year when Raikkonen's suspension failed on the final lap, he really cannot be discounted here.

Juan Pablo Montoya, too, will be looking for a repeat performance: in Imola, despite problems with the car in practice, he outperformed his teammate, finishing on the podium. With Ferrari expected to be slightly less competitive, another podium has to be on the cards.

Objectives: Challenge for the race win - with both cars fighting to be on the podium.

Ferrari

After admitting that Renault could and should have won in Imola, had they not erred with their strategy, Ferrari nevertheless delivered on their own potential: the history books record another win for the marque.

That said, repeating the performance in Germany is not going to be trivial. Even with their knowledge of the Imola circuit, Schumacher was very nearly beaten by the slightly faster Alonso. Their performance alone will not suffice, so strategy will play an important part in disrupting Renault and McLaren.

Michael Schumacher and Felipe Massa © LAT

Ferrari continue to struggle with maximising their tyres. The San Marino experience showed they did not wear as expected: considerable effort continues to go into resolving the discrepancies between expected and actual race performance. As their understanding improves, the car should continue to move forward - they could close the gap to Renault very quickly.

Drivers: Michael Schumacher, as always, cannot be discounted; with Ferrari's tactical acumen, any slip at the front or randomising events (like rain) are likely to play towards Ferrari and improve the odds of another Ferrari win. Schumacher must be looking for a podium finish.

Felipe Massa had a disappointing Imola weekend: despite qualifying and finishing fourth overall, the package had the potential to do better. If he is to avoid following the route of all Schumacher's other teammates, he needs to start performing on the same level.

Objectives: Aiming for a win - but anticipating a podium finish with both cars well in the points.

Toyota

It has hard to know quite what is going on at Toyota; after a solid performance in Australia, the team struggled in San Marino. Qualifying sixth and ninth was a disappointment with Ralf Schumacher unable to get up to speed early in each stint, he fell back to ninth, whilst Jarno Trulli's race ended five laps in with an unusual steering column problem.

Testing since the last Grand Prix has predominantly focussed on the new chassis that the team are looking to introduce in Monaco, so limited progress is expected for this race; that said, they clearly failed to extract the full potential of the package at the last outing.

For the weekend ahead, getting the car set up quickly is going to be important before getting in a solid qualifying session; both cars can make the top ten, and a decent session should allow them to challenge for points, though finishing on the podium would probably require mistakes from Renault, McLaren and Ferrari.

Support for Toyota should be good, with the team making the most of their home race to bring staff from the factory down for the weekend; whether that translates into greater speed remains to be seen but it can do no harm.

Drivers: Jarno Trulli will be looking for restitution after feeling he was baulked on a qualifying run by Michael Schumacher in Italy. Even though this is Ralf's home crowd, he will be looking for a strong Saturday performance, and a consistent run on Sunday.

Ralf Schumacher may benefit from the home support... certainly he could use some luck to repeat the Australia performance for a podium finish: despite an affinity for the Nurburgring, scoring good points is going to require an outstanding performance.

Objectives: Get both cars into the points.

Williams Cosworth

San Marino was mixed for Williams, with Nico Rosberg off form all weekend, though Webber did well to finish sixth. Since then, they have tested hard at Silverstone, though without particularly impressing times, and head off to the Nurburgring with scant hope of repeating last season's performance.

Mark Webber © LAT

In 2005, the team qualified on pole and took second place in the race; whilst not a likely outcome this season, particularly as the team are working with Bridgestone rather than Michelin, they will still be looking to improve their game and looking for more points.

The biggest single improvement the team can make is to eliminate the frustrating drop-off in pace they seem to experience on race day; in Italy, Mark Webber struggled with the handling of the car after each stop, which ultimately cost places: if they have sorted this out, then consistent points finishes should be on the cards for both cars. In the meanwhile, getting one in to the points is an accomplishment.

Drivers: Mark Webber continues to make the most of his qualifying pace, and races hard on Sunday; although eyes have been on his inexperienced teammate recently, the Australian is continuing to deliver for the team and his consistency is doing a lot to repair the impact Rosberg made on his reputation.

Rosberg will be racing in front of a home crowd this weekend - though whether he experiences a 'one second boost' from the crowd of buckles under the added pressure to perform should be interesting.

Objectives: Get both cars into the points.

Honda

San Marino saw yet another weekend of disappointment for BAR: whilst Renault and Ferrari predictably battled for the top step, mistakes in the pits nullified the risky three-stop strategy, dropping Jenson Button back from second to seventh. Barrichello struggled with his brakes, falling from a solid third place on the grid to tenth.

The three-stop approach masked what appears to be a drop-off in performance for the Honda outfit from San Marino; their race pace simply did not deliver so, again, they finished the weekend disappointed.

Ironically, the team have clearly been making good progress. The San Marino updates helped improve Rubens Barrichello's comfort levels within the car and even though the three-stop fuel load was a little flattering, the low fuel qualifying pace was excellent, and a solid indication of the base-line speed available.

To date, much of the missing race day pace has been put down to imperfect use of tyres costing seconds at critical moments; whilst this is probably true, it doesn't change the bottom line that the drivers are unable to get the most from the package for the whole race distance.

The Nurburgring was not a good race for BAR last year, and judging by their recent test, there is little indication of any quantum leap forward that will make this year exceptional. Accordingly, they have to be looking to continue producing their excellent qualifying pace, and to turn out a mistake-free race on Sunday. If they do, then perhaps a podium is possible, but beating Renault, McLaren and Ferrari to win would be a big stretch.

Drivers: Button has been showing excellent qualifying pace all season; another front row performance followed by a consistently quick race would do much to boost moral at the factory.

Barrichello's improved pace in San Marino illustrates how things are improving for the Brazilian, but there is some way to go yet; he normally goes well at the Nurburgring, which should help - this is probably his best chance to outqualify Button in the first half of the season.

Vitantonio Liuzzi tested for Red Bull Racing at Silverstone © XPB/LAT

Objectives: podium finish, and both cars in the points.

Red Bull Racing Ferrari

San Marino was very much a race to forget for Red Bull, who qualified well down the field before a double retirement ended their weekend.

Since then, they have been testing, which was particularly tough on Tonio Liuzzi, who was running for Red Bull: a huge accident at Becketts heavily damaged the car though he escaped unscathed. Otherwise, the team's test time was constructive - including uncovering new problems with their next generation Cosworth engine.

With BMW-Sauber breathing down their neck, Red Bull need a step up if they are to remain in a position to challenge for the occasional point. Their race pace is often on the money, but without getting more out of the package in qualifying, they are starting each event on the back foot.

From this weekend, they must be aiming to get the car working effectively from the outset and show more from qualifying; once that is sorted out, fighting to score points will come easier.

Drivers: David Coulthard can be expected to keep a level head, race hard and make the most of any chances that come his way; that said, without rain or an inspired qualifying session and despite finishing fourth last season, the Scot is likely to struggle to get into the points.

Christian Klien is still under pressure to noticeably outperform his more experienced teammate; his qualifying consistency has improved, but without maintaining that advantage on race day, his long term worth remains under question: his goal remains to beat Coulthard.

Objectives: Improved qualifying - and challenge for a point.

BMW Sauber

Although they seem to be using this season more as a build-up to a proper BMW challenge over the next couple of years, the BMW Sauber outfit are not slacking this season. A tough qualifying session in San Marino - Nick Heidfeld crashing out, with yellow flags then slowing Jacques Villeneuve - consigned them to a tougher race and sub-par results.

On race day, getting the most out of the tyres seems to be the single biggest obstruction to leveraging the potential from the car. When everything is working smoothly, the package is actually quite respectable and capable of challenging for points.

For the weekend ahead, the team are running a new evolution of the engine - despite some reliability question marks from testing. The same tests allowed them more insight into the best use of their tyres, so it is reasonable to see a step forward this weekend, with some hope of taking a point off the higher budgeted teams.

Drivers: The Nurburgring is Nick Heidfeld's home race and the German loves the circuit. Last year, he put his Williams on pole before a strong race to second; whilst neither result is likely this weekend, he is something of a dark horse and could well finish in the points.

Villeneuve does not like this circuit much, though he usually does well enough; whilst, in this instance, Heidfeld is the more likely to excel, the Canadian doesn't give up easily and will be looking to beat at least his teammate.

Yuji Ide (Super Aguri) tips Christijan Albers (Midland) into a flip on the opening lap of the Grand Prix of San Marino © LAT

Objectives: Score a point.

Midland Toyota

With Yuji Ide taking Christijan Albers out at the start of the Imola race, Midland were always looking at a tough afternoon, and Tiago Monteiro duly brought the car home last, two laps down.

This disappointment was probably not entirely unexpected; despite an increased budget from the final Jordan days, it pales in comparison with their competition. That said, the team still made it out to test before this race, doing themselves no disservice with solid work evaluating tyres and understanding better how to set the car up. Whilst this is not likely to change the status quo, it does at least mean that the team will have a better starting point at the next couple of events.

Despite an upgraded engine for this event, beating any car other than a Super Aguri remains a challenge.

Drivers: Monteiro continues to be reliable, if unspectacular, and should again finish the race. Albers will probably be watching his mirrors carefully at the start for signs of an encroaching Super Aguri, but otherwise will be looking to make something of anticipated Dutch support as he races his teammate.

Objectives: Finish ahead of anyone other than Super Aguri.

Toro Rosso Cosworth

Despite fears that the V10 Cosworth available to Toro Rosso meant they would have a traction advantage in San Marino, the outfit failed to show the competitive times they occasionally managed in practice, with 16th and 18th in qualifying. A forgettable race followed.

More is required at the Nurburgring if they are to show any reason why the should be feared over the course of the European season: good traction is a useful part of the whole, and particularly required at this circuit, so if they are going to be competitive anywhere, this is likely to be it. That said, getting into the points needs more from the package that just traction.

Despite getting quite a few laps in at the Silverstone test, it is not clear that the team are making any real inroads in maintaining their performance relative to the front; they can be expected to race BMW and capitalise on poor weather or strategic mistakes for the chance of a point.

Drivers: Neither Scott Speed nor Vitantonio Liuzzi is expected to perform any miracles in Germany, though Liuzzi will be looking to demonstrate his greater experience by beating his teammate again.

Objectives: Beat BMW-Sauber.

Takuma Sato (Super Aguri) e © LAT

Super Aguri Honda

With both cars failing to finish in San Marino, after Ide rolled Albers out of the race, things are looking down at Super Aguri.

The car has another change due for Germany; this update to the aero package is expected to help keep them working up to Midland's performance on the current chassis, though realistic expectations will not see much change at the back.

Drivers: Takuma Sato has raced well at the Nurburgring on the past and can be expected to have another solid weekend; the revised aero package might eat up more of the gap to the cars in front, but he is still going to struggle to fight for anything other than a finish.

After his disastrous race in San Marino, Ide has another weekend to show that he can make the grade in Formula One; with the car so far off the pace and Sato clearly the team lead, he has to show something to prevent the team from handing his seat to third drive Franck Montagny.

Objectives: Get the cars to the finish this time - without being a menace to other competitors.