The 2005 Belgian Grand Prix Preview

The Formula One circus is headed to one of the most popular circuits with teams, drivers and fans alike: Circuit National de Francorchamps, bounded by the towns of Malmedy, Stavelot and Francorchamps in the Ardennes, for the Belgian Grand Prix. One of the few circuits that puts driver skill to the fore, it includes the renowned Eau Rouge corner. The size of the circuit, with a variety of corners and straights over undulating ground ensure that finding the perfect set-up is nigh impossible. Overtaking is possible, particularly as tyres wear, and there is often rain at one end of the circuit whilst the other is dry. Accurate weather predictions are rare.

Analysis

This is a circuit that often sees surprise results, typically due to inclement weather interfering with the natural order of things, but sometime simply due to drivers being able to get more out of their package than expected. That said, there's little substitute for outright horsepower around here, though efficient aerodynamics, good kerb riding and excellent balance are all big contributors to a great laptime.

Track: The short start-finish straight at Spa Francorchamps sees drivers reach 180mph on the approach to La Source Hairpin: this tight, 35mph right-hander leads to a downhill stretch, back up to 180mph for Eau Rouge: taken flat out, the track drops before climbing steeply left, right then left again, retaining the 180mph entry speed. This is vital for the long run down the Kemmell straight, with speeds up to 210mph before braking hard for the 90mph Les Combes right hander. A left-right flick through the Malmedy chicane follows immediately with increasing speeds up to 175mph before the 70mph Rivage hairpin, a right-hander that is both downhill and off-camber, exaggerating any understeer.

From Rivage, there is a 100mph/160km/h left hander ahead of the short straight to the 135mph, double apex left hander of Pouhon; with an exit speed of 170mph this leads to the right-left 90mph chicane of Fagnes. Another short straight, leads to the double apex right-hander of Stavelot: a bumpy, 95mph downhill bend that sees cars accelerating to 150mph on the exit, before the long sweeping left-hander of Blanchimont. Drivers will reach speeds of 190mph before braking hard for the bus stop chicane (or the pit lane entry, which is located mid-way through the chicane away from the racing line).

This 60mph chicane is a right-left flick, leading back onto the pit straight to start another lap.

Tyres: Whilst the steps Bridgestone made ahead of the Turkish Grand Prix were impressive, there is a continued question over when they might be able to next use the technology that made the advance possible. Turkey was too hot, whilst Monza too fast; the tough requirements for Spa means the circuit will probably not lend itself to Bridgestone making significant progress. Rather, the Bridgestone runners will be hoping Michelin have been overcautious.

Weather: Weather for this region is notoriously difficult to predict, but there is usually rain interfering with some aspects of the weekend. Early predictions are for a wet Friday, but anything can happen - and to add to the complexity, different ends of the circuit can experience different weather conditions, so it is possible to see rain and sun at different corners at the same time in this race.

Strategy: The optimal strategy for speed is expected to be a single stop, though there is little difference to two stops and the fuel load would compromise qualifying. With La Source an absolute magnet for first lap incidents, being towards the front is important, if only to avoid trouble. Spa is famed for drivers coming to grief in spectacular fashion, so the teams will be working hard to keep their strategies flexible enough to anticipate and respond to the Safety Car making an appearance or two.

Surprises: Jenson Button should be in good form here, and Giancarlo Fisichella is particularly quick on this circuit. If it rains, look for a strong performance from Michael Schumacher.

Conclusions: Kimi Raikkonen remains hot favourite for the win, and McLaren should be targeting a one-two finish, though they can expect some challenge from Renault; Jarno Trulli and Jenson Button should both be worth keeping an eye on in qualifying.

Team by Team

Ferrari

Although the showing at Monza was disappointing, it is never wise to write off Michael Schumacher at Spa; the German may no longer be in a position to win the world title this season, but he has often pulled a surprising result at this circuit.

Realistically, the car is expected to be off the pace. Even if Bridgestone's option tyre proves the better choice and delivers pole, competing with McLaren and Renault over the full race distance is going to be something of a trial. The best thing the team can hope for is rain - which would give both drivers an opportunity to shine.

Drivers: Even with Kimi Raikkonen's unexpected win in 2004, Michael Schumacher's record at Spa is excellent and this is a circuit that should allow him to lift the performance of his Ferrari, as the driver's input is a larger part of the equation. Rubens Barrichello is no slouch here, either: he might not have the results of his teammate, but he is very quick and ought to be able to lift his recent level of performance.

With Bridgestone expected to retain a wet weather advantage, this duo should be difficult to match if it rains.

Objectives: Qualify in the top eight, finish in the points - with a podium if it rains.

BAR

Although the Italian Grand Prix was a disappointment, the specialist nature of the circuit and poor luck during the race were both contributory factors; heading to a circuit that will reward power and efficient aerodynamics should bring the team more joy.

Whilst qualifying has been strong, race pace is not proving to be quite so rewarding, which carries an implication that the car is being light fuelled or overly harsh on tyres: in Belgium, being forced to look after the tyres to the end of the race could again result in the team going backwards through the race.

Drivers: Jenson Button has been getting in some very solid qualifying results and will be expected to produce another this weekend. The team struggled to get the car properly balanced in Italy, but with more downforce on the cars this should not be such a struggle. Takuma Sato has not really shone this year; though his single lap pace is often excellent, he has not been on a par with his teammate all year.

Objectives: Qualify well, beat Toyota and score points - targeting a podium.

Renault

With the Drivers' Championship coming towards Renault, preventing McLaren from taking the Constructors' has to be the pressing concern for the team: accordingly, they need to get both cars to finish well as their highest priority. In fact, whilst the Renault is not strongest in any area, they have a total package that should work very well here: it would be a surprise if they are not in a position to make McLaren work all the way to the finish. Should there be any cracks in the McLaren reliability, then should allow it to be shown up, even if the pressure doesn't lead to any driver error.

Drivers: At this circuit, Giancarlo Fisichella has put in some excellent performances over the years, demonstrating his ability to make a difference, no matter the car he was driving. If there is a place where he is likely to beat his teammate, then this is it - though that would be no mean feat. Fernando Alonso is in excellent form and can very reasonably be expected to be quick here. Whilst McLaren probably hold the overall pace advantage, the relentless pace Alonso has been able to extract from the car could offer a chance to pressure their rivals, perhaps i to making mistakes.

Objectives: Qualify in the front two rows, finish on the podium; challenge McLaren all the way to the line.

Williams

There is not a lot going right for Williams this season, so a strong result from Spa would be something of a surprise. Nevertheless, the team have a car that has been improving incrementally all season, and even without the injured Nick Heidfeld, there is further opportunity to score points this weekend.

The car has more aero components coming that should offer a step forward, whilst the engine and chassis have been a solid base all year. A concern might be that, given the rate of progress the team is making, there is some danger that the improvements could at the expense of reliability, but that has generally not been the case this year. Provided they look out for their tyres, this could well prove to be another chance for Williams to get both their cars into the points.

Drivers: With Nick Heidfeld injured in testing, Antonio Pizzonia gets another chance to race, and he should be riding high after a solid result in Italy: it means he has a far better qualifying slot, and another chance to show what he can do. Mark Webber had a poor outing in Italy, which means he is facing an early qualifying slot. Even with his excellent qualifying pace, this could put him down the grid which would significantly compromise his race.

Objectives: qualify well, get both cars in the points.

McLaren

Coming into the weekend as hot favourites, Kimi Raikkonen must be looking forward to a very real chance of defending his win from last season, even considering his poor fortune this year, which keeps seeing him sent back ten places on the grid after qualifying for changing engines. The McLaren package is well suited to this circuit, so they will be looking for a perfect weekend in order to keep the Championship hopes alive.

Drivers: Raikkonen was blisteringly fast here last year, taking a surprise win in a tough season for McLaren, and with his pace unabated all season, there is no reason to believe he might have an off weekend this year. Juan Pablo Montoya is not exactly a slouch here either, and though he has a tendency to be aggressive and either overtake spectacularly or be involved in 'racing incidents', the Columbian is capable of winning this race. Now that Montoya is mathematically unable to challenge for the Drivers' Championship, if he is leading the pair before the end, the drivers are likely to change positions, team order rulings or not.

Objectives: aiming for the race win - and a one-two finish.

Sauber

Sauber have been making the most of a tough season: they have been giving very little up to the manufacturer-backed outfits and regularly taken points when they are offered. With a solid engine from Ferrari and good results from their wind tunnel, the team should be looking forward to keeping up the pressure in Belgium: whilst the Spa circuit is not going to particularly work for the package, it won't disadvantage it, so the drivers are in a position to make any difference.

Should any front-running team stumble, Sauber ought to be in a position to pick up points.

Drivers: Jacques Villeneuve has not had a memorable season, so there is little expectation for his forthcoming performance at Spa; nevertheless, at each even he seems to be getting more out of the car, so this circuit could suit him well. Felipe Massa continues to be the man of the moment: his improving maturity in the car and impressive speed means that it should be interesting to see what he can make of the package this weekend.

Objectives: qualify in the top ten; score a point - beat Red Bull.

Red Bull

After a strong result in Turkey, poor fortune during the Italian Grand Prix led to a tough disappointing race; the result ensures the outfit will face a tough qualifying session in Belgium. However, with few teams able to bring on much development since the Turkish event, the team are confident that they are not losing more ground, so a solid race could be in prospect: and at Spa, anything can happen, so there's a chance of scoring more points, too.

Drivers: David Coulthard's considerable experience at Spa has led to some strong races there in the past, and has kept a clear head to stay out of trouble at the starts this year. If he can bring it all together this weekend, there is some chance of finishing in the points, but it is a tall order. Christian Klien has been running nearly as well as Coulthard this season, and appears to be maturing well: he should be shooting for a top ten finish.

Objectives: finish as well as possible, targeting a point. Beat Sauber, if possible.

Toyota

At a circuit that rewards power and low drag, the Toyota team are looking for another double points finish, as their car should work well there. With Ferrari continuing to struggle, there is even the chance that a committed effort for the remainder of the season could leave Toyota in third place overall, so there is considerable benefit available to continuing the effort.

This year, the team have spent time shaking down their cars over parts of the circuit, so they head to the track with a little more knowledge than most of the competition; whether it will prove advantageous is still to be discovered, but in the battle to stay ahead of Honda-powered BAR, this could make a difference.

Drivers: At a circuit that saw Jarno Trulli on pole in 2004, and his continued solid showings this season, there is strong hope that he will again be in the top five on the grid for the race - where there is a very real chance he'll be able to hold on for another solid points finish. Ralf Schumacher's race form might well offer a chance to close up with his teammate again on race day, but there is little reason to expect his qualifying performance to be impressive: although the German is capable of stunning laps, he just doesn't seem to be pulling them off this year.

Objectives: target points finishes; aiming to collect another podium finish - and beat BAR.

Jordan

The team finally have two EJ15B cars available for the drivers, which should offer a solid step forward at Spa, a circuit that will reward the improved aerodynamics and drive. This is just as well, considering the team have not shown so well at either the Italian or Turkish Grands Prix.

With the new car comes the challenge of keeping it running for the whole race; although the overheating issues are largely resolved, the car continues to be something of an unknown over a race weekend, so it is entirely likely to encounter unforeseen problems. On the positive side, if it performs, then a clear advantage over Minardi is expected.

Drivers: Narain Karthikeyan and Tiago Monteiro have both raced at Spa in F3, which at least means they have a good idea of how the circuit is laid out; however, tackling the challenging circuit in a Formula One car is something of a proposition, previous experience or not. At this circuit where drivers make a considerable difference over the lap, total commitment is vital for performance, but over-commitment will quickly end a race here. Accordingly, Monteiro will have to step up his game to make the most of the car, whilst Karthikeyan will have to rein in his exuberance, or he'll end his weekend in the gravel.

Objectives: make a good showing of the new car, beat Minardi.

Minardi

With Jordan looking set to run their new car, with its improved aerodynamics, Minardi are set to again prop up the grid; their objectives as usual will remain limited to finishing the race, preferably ahead of any Jordan drivers who make mistakes.

The heavily rumoured expectation that Red Bull will buy a controlling interest in the team and donate this year's chassis for next season is interesting, but the remainder of the deal is an unknown and that causes concerns the whole of the team: if they are no longer designing or building cars, will there be a team in the current sense, or will most of the current workforce be redundant? How will the handing over independence impact the team's running next year? Will the mechanics at the circuit be in training for Red Bull too? And if the team is a training ground for Red Bull up and comers, what are the prospects for this year's drivers? These and other questions could well impact performance this weekend.

Objectives: complete race distance - beat Jordan again.

Flashback 2004

Belgium saw the fourteenth round of the 2004 season, with Schumacher and Ferrari dominating. Few saw any chance of change at a circuit the German has dominated, but the prospect of rain and improving performance from the competition left some room for doubt.

Qualifying

The tricky nature of wet qualifying at Spa saw many front runners making mistakes - however, the man who got it right in the middle of a wet-weather lottery was Jarno Trulli, putting him on pole for the second time that year. Michael Schumacher's second place was a huge credit to Bridgestone's wet weather superiority, whilst third placed Alonso - like Trulli - managed to complete his hot lap before the really heavy rain arrived.

David Coulthard's fourth for McLaren left Giancarlo Fisichella ruing what might have been with fifth in his Bridgestone shod Sauber: ironically, he'd looked set for the second row if there had been no rain: he still led the Ferrari of Rubens Barrichello, however.

Mark Webber and Felipe Massa filled the fourth row ahead of Olivier Panis and Kimi Raikkonen.

Other notables include Antonio Pizzonia in 14th place, filling at Williams for the injured Ralf Schumacher.

Race Highlights

From the outset, the race was eventful. At the opening corner, Alonso had forced his way past Schumacher, with Coulthard also slipping in front for the corner. Webber braked far too late and ran in to Barrichello, dropping his front wing on to the track. Massa and Raikkonen made contact, resulting in Button running in to the Sauber and losing his front wing too. Without his front wing, Webber dropped positions before running wide at Eau Rouge, running in to Sato and sending the BAR in to a spin: there was chaos as the remainder of the pack attempted to avoid him. The Minardi duo tangled, sending Bruni in to a spin that bounced off the tyre barriers, leaving him in the road, where he was hit by Pantano.

The safety car deployed immediately, leaving drivers with damaged cars a chance to stop for replacement wings with limited penalty, though Barrichello and Massa needed rear wings replaced, which put them a lap down. At this point, Trulli led Alonso, Coulthard, Schumacher, Raikkonen and Montoya.

After five laps the safety car pulled in: Raikkonen made the most of the restart to pass Schumacher, with Montoya also putting together a sensational pass at the Bus Stop. Raikkonen then passed Coulthard.

Trulli pitted on lap 10, leaving Alonso in the lead - however, an oil-leak saw the Spaniard spin a couple of times, putting him out of the race and leaving Raikkonen in the lead. Around this time, Coulthard picked up a puncture and lost a lot of places as he lapped slowly back to the pits for a change. As he left the pits, Raikkonen made his stop, followed by Montoya, leaving Schumacher to lead. On lap 16, Schumacher pitted, returning ahead of Montoya: Pizzonia lead Raikkonen and Button, whilst Trulli was struggling with his car and had dropped to fourth.

Montoya battled with Massa through Eau Rouge, before attempting to replicate his Schumacher pass on Trulli at the Bus Stop: this time, however, the door was firmly closed by the Renault driver, leading to contact. Trulli span, returning in eighth, whilst Montoya dropped behind Pizzonia.

Button finally stopped from the lead on lap 21, returning in seventh place. This left Raikkonen with a twelve second advantage over Schumacher at the front, and never looking threatened. Pizzonia and Montoya ran in third and fourth.

Raikkonen stopped again on lap 29, returning shortly behind Schumacher; however, then Button had a tyre explode, causing him to swerve into Baumgartner at high speed, resulting in another Safety Car deployment. Schumacher and most of the other two stoppers made the most of the chance to pit behind the car, leaving the German right behind Raikkonen.

The restart was uneventful, with Raikkonen easing away from Schumacher, who easily fended off Montoya; Barrichello led Zonta, Massa, Fisichella and Klien. Panis was ninth before being passed by Coulthard.

Unfortunately for Montoya, eight laps from the end, he also suffered an exploding tyre; having limped back to the pits, the team retired the car as a result of the damage done. Moments, later, Coulthard crashed in to the back of Klien as he attempted to pass on the exit of Eau Rouge; he made it back to the pits without a front wing, though the Safety Car was deployed again.

When it pulled off the track with three laps remaining, Schumacher set about Raikkonen but never got with striking distance; Ricardo Zonta's engine gave up spectacularly, and Coulthard managed to pass Trulli for the final point available.

Point Paying Positions

Pos  Driver        Team-Engine                Time        
 1.  Raikkonen     McLaren-Mercedes (M)  1h32:35.274
 2.  M.Schumacher  Ferrari          (B)  +     3.131
 3.  Barrichello   Ferrari          (B)  +     4.371
 4.  Massa         Sauber-Petronas  (B)  +    12.504
 5.  Fisichella    Sauber-Petronas  (B)  +    14.144
 6.  Klien         Jaguar-Cosworth  (M)  +    14.705
 7.  Coulthard     McLaren-Mercedes (M)  +    17.970
 8.  Panis         Toyota           (M)  +    18.693

Fastest Lap: Raikkonen, 1:45.108, lap 42

Classified: 11 from 20 starters