MPH: Mark Hughes on...

Roll on the first tests of the pukka 2009 Formula 1 cars. That's when we get to find out if the established order has been shaken up.

For the past decade, each team's designs have evolved year on year. Making a competitive car has been all about finding a fruitful direction and following it, constantly making an improvement in one area, then going round the whole car and optimising it all over again. It's called refinement engineering in the road-car industry. The radical changes to the aerodynamics for 2009 break that cycle completely, and in theory how well a team has developed its car this year should have little or no benefit next year. The last major shake-up was the grooved-tyres/narrow-track regulations introduced for 1998. Since that time regulation changes to wings, underbodies etc have been relatively minor tweaks and have not rendered all previous development obsolete. Even a change in engine formula, from 3-litre V10s to 2.4-litre V8s, had little effect on the technical philosophies of the cars. Instead, the tyre war of 2001-06 drove most of the changes.