MPH: Mark Hughes on...

The Spanish Grand Prix featured two overtaking moves. The first came on lap 55, when the out-of-position Nick Heidfeld got by the much slower Force India of Giancarlo Fisichella after many laps of trying. The other when the recovering David Coulthard made a successful move on Takuma Sato's Super Aguri. For the rest of the time we watched the field locked in stalemate.

The Circuit de Catalunya has never lent itself to passing, especially so in recent years when the upper body addenda have given F1 cars their turbulent wake that destroys any chance of getting close enough to slipstream the car ahead. But Sunday represented an especially dire situation.

Next year's new package of dramatically changed aerodynamics, slick tyres and KERS cannot come soon enough. But will it be enough? Even the Overtaking Working Group - the body of exceptionally clever and experienced F1 engineers behind the general outline of the aero and dimensional changes - doesn't know for sure.

Schumacher is hopeful

The indication in testing of simulated '09 packages and slicks suggests lap times will probably not be a lot different from now. What will be different is how those times are derived.

The idea is that restrictions on upper body winglets, bargeboards etc will make the cars' wake much less turbulent and so easier to slipstream. The downforce produced from the upper body will be less, thanks to a semi-standardised front wing and a much narrower rear wing - and this in itself should further clean the wake.

It should also mean the cars are coming onto the straights slower, again making overtaking easier in theory; the slower the car is travelling through the corner, the less aero wake coming off it and the easier it is to run close behind, giving you a greater chance of picking up a tow.

The opposing lap-time gain will come from the slicks. Their greater grip should furthermore allow the driver the mechanical grip to really nail an outbraking move.

Michael Schumacher is hopeful it might work: "These regs basically cut aerodynamic grip and increase mechanical grip. Mechanical grip has a much nicer feel. It is more consistent and linear and you feel you can trust it more. Hopefully this should make the cars feel more driveable and if they're more driveable they should be more raceable."

The driver will also get extra overtaking help by moveable aerodynamics, whereby he can make two cockpit-adjusted movements of his front wing per lap. So once he's in by the slipstream of the car ahead, he will increase his wing's flap angle.

The hole punched in the air by the car ahead means the increase in angle will not now slow him significantly - and when he pulls out of the tow to make the move, the greater angle will increase his braking grip. So inherently, the car behind is faster than the one in front. Then factor in that the cars' extended width - back to 2m after a decade at 1.8 - will increase drag. The bigger the hole they punch through the air, the bigger the tow you should get.

Doubts from DC

Add to that the KERS devices' 'push to pass' button, which will give the driver the equivalent of an extra 80bhp for up to 6.7sec per lap. The combined tow and power surge will surely help, with the proviso that the driver ahead can use his KERS defensively.

But using the full storage capacity will leave you unboosted while the system collects braking energy, leaving you vulnerable to the guy behind. It'll be almost impossible to know when the best time to use the button will be, because its effectiveness depends on how your rival reacts.

Using the boost early on the straight will give a greater lap time advantage. Using it later will bring a better overtaking opportunity. Is the guy closing on you still far enough behind that your best chance of keeping him at bay is to press the button early? Or will he simply be able to pounce at the end of the straight if you do that?

There are doubters, David Coulthard for one. He believes there will still be enough turbulence from the wings to prevent you getting really close coming onto the straight. The aero regs might make a small difference, he reasons, but not enough that it won't still be extremely hard to pass.

Then there's the slicks. Yes, their greater grip will allow a driver to lean on them more. But they will also considerably shorten the braking distances. Where is the optimum trade-off between the overtaking upside and downside of greater tyre grip? No one knows.

We know all how CFD and windtunnels enable teams to simulate aerodynamic performance in isolation. But trying to model the cars' performance as a group is way beyond their ability. Game theory - where possible outcomes are exponentially bigger because if the inter-dependence of players upon each other - makes computerised modelling of the success of these changes impossible.

So F1 is about to commit millions to a solution to a problem. But it really doesn't know how successful this may be. Although there's something strangely reassuring about that, F1 can't afford too many races like last Sunday's.