From the Pulpit

This weekend, at Monza, round 15 of what is rapidly becoming a marvellously gladiatorial 18-round World Drivers' Championship bout, all eyes will be on Fernando Alonso and Michael Schumacher.

But, above all, they'll be on Michael. Even if the 2006 Italian Grand Prix ends up not being his last Formula One race in front of the ever-passionate Tifosi, Schumi's every move will be scrutinised for signs that it will be.

Was that the trace of a tear in the post-qualifying press conference, we'll ask ourselves? Did he wave to the crowd rather more energetically than usual in the drivers' parade? Did he hug Jean Todt on the victory podium even more homoerotically than usual? These questions, and others like them, will be whispered up and down the paddock, and in sitting rooms all over the world.

What few F1 fans will be doing is watching Pedro de la Rosa. But, in truth, Pedro will be almost as fascinating to watch.

Although he prefers not to say so in public - for saying so in public would (a) tempt fate, (b) thrust unnecessary extra pressure upon him and (c) run the risk of annoying Ron Dennis - Pedro privately (but oh-so-feverishly) hopes that the 2006 Italian Grand Prix, and the three remaining 2006 Grands Prix that will follow it, will constitute an extended audition for a prodigiously covetable prize: a works Vodafone McLaren Mercedes drive for 2007.

Pedro de la Rosa © LAT

He may well be right. On the other hand, there may well be a fly-in-the-ointment.

But before we examine that potential fly - and there's only one, and it's young, gifted and black - let's agree, up front, that Pedro has done a very good job so far this year. He's scored points in three of the four Grands Prix he's started since taking over the second McLaren from the wretched and rejected Juan Pablo Montoya, and his run to second place in Hungary was both rapid and resolute. In Turkey, while all eyes were elsewhere, he optimised a one-stop strategy that perhaps did his race effort no favours to finish a solid fifth.

No one at McLaren thinks Montoya would have done any better - and many are convinced that, so debilitating had become the feisty Colombian's general discombobulation of late, his decline might well have begun to resemble that of F1's last much-vaunted Champ Car import: namely, poor Alex Zanardi, the abjectness of whose 1999 season for Williams still defies satisfactory explanation.

Whatever. As far as F1 is concerned, Juan Pablo is in a metaphorical departure lounge, ready to jet off to NASCAR. Good luck to him. Pedro, by contrast, is still drinking in F1's last-chance saloon.

Or is he? Does he really stand a chance of racing a McLaren in 2007? Or is the second Macca already the property of that young, gifted and black fly-in-the-ointment, namely the one 'n' only Lewis Carl Hamilton?

For not long before de la Rosa had driven a sensible race to fifth place at Istanbul Park, Hamilton had produced what will surely be hailed as the most sensational drive of 2006, in any series, in the weekend's second GP2 race.

After a fifth-lap spin that had dropped him to 16th, he scorched his way up to second by the race's 23rd and final lap. Had there been 24 laps, victory would assuredly have been his. It was a mesmerisingly impressive performance.

Moreover, Pedro will be 36 by the time the 2007 F1 season kicks off. Married with two young daughters, and possessed of the intelligent and sensitive air of a successful orthodontist, he's no-one's idea of a potential F1 superstar.

By contrast, Lewis, 21, wouldn't look out of place in a boy-band; indeed, on his website, he lists his favourite music as "hip-hop, R&B, reggae and funky-house", his favourite artists as "The Roots, De La Soul, 2Pac, Biggie, Nas, Bob Marley, Sizzla, Sean Paul, Freddie McGregor, UB40, Chaka Demus & Piliers, Beenie Man, Sanchez and Warrior King".

There are no prizes for guessing which of the two drivers McLaren's sponsors are hoping gets the gig.

Lewis Hamilton © LAT

On the other hand, Pedro is vastly more experienced than Lewis - no, make that truly, madly, deeply more experienced than Lewis - and, as Nico Rosberg has shown at Williams this year, natural speed can only take an inexperienced lad so far in his rookie F1 season. Yes, Nico will make it; he's too good not to. But 2006 has given him a crash-course (literally) on the subject of just how steep a 21st-century F1 learning curve can be.

Privately, some Williams engineers are now saying that, much as they still rate Nico and expect him to come good in the end, they're pretty damn' sure that Team Willy would have scored more 2006 World Constructors' Championship points had Alex Wurz been race-driving and Rosberg Friday-driving rather than the other way round.

They're probably right. And here's a thing: the Rosberg-Wurz comparison is uncannily akin to the dilemma that McLaren's decision-makers face this autumn/winter. Fresh-faced GP2 star versus seasoned F1 hand; pin-up kid versus 30-something father of two; youth versus experience.

But what experience! Pedro has so far completed a mammoth 286 days of F1 testing in his F1 career, and 42 days this year alone.

Lewis? Lewis has so far done just one day's F1 testing, at an icy-cold Silverstone in December 2004. He drove just 21 laps. In other words, he's done considerably less than Nico, who was Williams's main test driver in 2005, did prior to being promoted to the race team for this year. Go figure.

But, then again, Pedro isn't into hip-hop, R&B, reggae or funky-house; no, his hobbies are radio-controlled helicopters, cycling and cross-country skiing. He's unlikely to get himself onto the front cover of F1 Racing with that little lot, a truism about which McLaren's sponsors will be only too well aware.

Ron has already said that he's in no hurry to make up his mind - and that's palpably true, for both Lewis and Pedro are contracted to McLaren for 2007 and neither will therefore be going anywhere else.

Well... hang on a minute. De la Rosa won't, certainly. No one is likely to view the likeable and capable Spanish veteran as such a must-have commodity that the chance of snatching him from under Ron's nose is worth going to court for - but some rival team principals just might feel that way about Hamilton. Such is Lewis's potential, and so marketable might he be if such potential were to bear fruit, that it's not inconceivable that McLaren's rivals may well be secretly eyeing him even as I write.

You don't believe me? Okay, consider this: just nine short months ago, everyone assumed that Fernando Alonso was irrevocably welded (wedded, even!) to Flavio Briatore and Renault - and yet, just before Christmas, Ron snatched the reigning world champion from under the nose of not only his team boss but also his personal manager (the same Flavio Briatore). It was the shock F1 news story of the year.

Ron is nothing if not astute. So I can only assume that Hamilton's McLaren contract is virtually impregnable. But F1 is now inhabited by six of the world's largest and most powerful corporations - BMW, Fiat (Ferrari), Honda, DaimlerChrysler (Mercedes-Benz), Renault and Toyota - and, although 'traditional' team owners of the 'garagiste' type might quake in their boots at the prospect of taking Ron on, one (or more) of the big six, with the backing of fabulously well organised and dauntingly well resourced legal departments, would not.

Ron Dennis © LAT

In the summer of 2005, BMW approached McLaren with a view to offering Hamilton the job they eventually gave to Robert Kubica (i.e., third driver for 2006). Despite Kubica's obvious potential, and the conspicuous likelihood that he'll race for BMW in F1 next year, is it really likely that Hamilton's staggeringly impressive GP2 form this year will have made Mario Theissen less keen on him than he was 12 months ago? I think not.

So let's get hypothetical. What if a bigwig from BMW - or, for that matter, from another team run by one of the big six car manufacturers - were to telephone Anthony Hamilton, Lewis's dad, and say, "Okay. Here's the deal. We're offering US$75 million over five years. Take it or leave it. We need to know now. If you don't take it now, we'll never offer it again. Oh, and you can't talk to Ron about this. You have to say yes or no now. You've got 24 hours."

For sure, Hamilton senior would reply, "But what about Ron? I'll have to talk to Ron."

"Don't. Let our lawyers worry about Ron later," would come the panic-free reply.

Personally, I think Anthony would refuse such blandishments, because (a) he's clearly a man of high principle, and (b) he knows that Lewis will earn plenty of money from McLaren over the next 10-or-more years. But the offer would nonetheless be sorely tempting to him - especially if he were secretly fearing, as he may be, that Pedro will get the McLaren race drive next year.

Okay, if Lewis were poached in such a way, Ron would sue. And Ron would doubtless win. But what then? Even if he secured a gigantic lump sum by way of compensation, he, the great Ron Dennis, would still have lost Lewis Hamilton. And that would be every bit as embarrassing for Ron - no, make that publicly and therefore unthinkably humiliating for Ron - as losing Alonso was for Briatore late last year.

At all costs - or, more accurately, at any cost - Ron would want to avoid such a prospect. And, for that reason if for no other, however risky and raw Hamilton may be, and however worthy and experienced de la Rosa surely is, I expect Lewis to get the gig.