From the Pulpit

After five rounds of the 2005 FIA Formula One world championship, Jarno Trulli lay second in the drivers' standing, with 26 points - the result of two second-place finishes, a third and a fifth. This year, after five races, by alarming contrast, he has yet to trouble the scorers.

As stats go, that is a pretty astounding one - especially as, pre-season, Jarno was considerably more bullish about his 2006 prospects than ever he had been in the lead-up to 2005.

In late December 2005, for example, I flew to Rome to interview him for F1 Racing. "I don't think it's silly to say that I can be world champion this coming season," he told me. "I'm happy to say that. That's what I'm working for. Okay, if it doesn't happen, it doesn't happen. Who knows how good the other cars will be? But, at this stage, yes, I'm happy to say that I'm a world championship contender for 2006. I'm very confident about that."

Four months on, that sound bite makes a sobering read, doesn't it? And the one sentence in it that still holds good is a question, not a statement: "Who knows how good the other cars will be?"

Not Mike Gascoyne, certainly. But although Toyota famously 'suspended' (their euphemism, not mine) their notoriously well-paid technical director after just three 2006 Grands Prix, nothing about the way the dust has since settled in Cologne would seem to indicate that a renaissance is yet in sight.

But perhaps I am wrong, and perhaps there is (a renaissance in sight, that is). It would be good to see - for Jarno's sake, if for no other reason. Because, by an unhappy coincidence of contractual detail, combined with a likely need for Toyota Racing to make further changes to their line-up of star names in order to convince their impatient and bewildered parent company that their Formula One show is still on the road, I believe Jarno's position looks parlous at best.

Jarno Trulli © LAT

Ralf Schumacher's current contract expires at the end of 2007, you see, while Jarno's runs until the end of 2006. This year, neither Toyota driver has delivered his best - although Ralf finished a temporarily encouraging if attrition-assisted third in Australia - but that should be no surprise.

Trulli and Schumi Jr are both drivers who, on their day, with a following wind, in the right mood, can be devastatingly effective; the trouble is, their days come too infrequently, the wind refuses to follow them often enough, and their moods are too tricky to predict, to depend on, or even to fathom.

Jarno, in particular, is an enigma. No, I am not about to trot out that old chestnut - that he is a brilliant qualifier but a dreadful racer - because he has proved that the opposite is true so (comparatively) recently: this time last year, for example and par excellence.

But, as Renault's very astute and increasingly outspoken executive director of engineering, Pat Symonds, put it - also in F1 Racing, as it happens, in the magazine's season preview feature - Jarno is undeniably "volatile".

As I say, Symonds has dished the dirt more often this season than in previous years - perhaps the fact that his team's race strategies were almost invariably faultless in 2005 emboldened him - but, in so doing, he has become more than a mere pedlar of the mot juste. Yes, as Pat says, Jarno is volatile; the interesting question, though, is why.

"He's an incredibly complex character," Symonds explains. "He's volatile, yes, but not in the sense of leaping up and down and shouting. No, he implodes. He can be so very quick, but, if the slightest thing goes wrong, then his degradation of performance is staggering."

It is no surprise, then, that Trulli drove quite beautifully in 2005, when almost everything at Toyota was going right, but has struggled - indeed imploded, perhaps - now that almost everything at Toyota seems to be going wrong.

Where will Trulli end up next year? Astonishingly - and it really is astonishing when you consider that, on his day, few drivers in the history of Grand Prix racing have ever driven quicker than Jarno has at his scintillating best - he may end up with Hobson's choice. In other words, the choice of taking what is offered or nothing at all. Indeed, his Hobson's choice might even amount to no choice. Yes, he might be offered nothing at all.

At one time I suspect Jarno harboured secret ambitions to drive for McLaren in 2007 - but that will surely not happen now. McLaren will run Fernando Alonso plus one of Kimi Raikkonen, Juan Pablo Montoya and Lewis Hamilton. And if, for whatever reason, none of those three is available or deemed by Ron Dennis to be appropriate, then both Nico Rosberg and Mark Webber are likelier than Trulli.

Renault are out of the question - there is too much history there.

Ferrari have an embarrassment of riches from which to choose: Michael Schumacher, Kimi Raikkonen, Felipe Massa, Valentino Rossi, etc.

Honda? Unlikely: Jenson Button is locked into a very long deal, the result of 'Button-gates' I (2004) and II (2005); and Rubens Barrichello, who is now showing signs of improvement after having started 2006 every bit as lamentably as did anyone at Toyota, is contracted until the end of 2007 (or, some say, until the end of 2008).

Williams? Trulli is currently on US$10 million, the kind of stipend that Sir Frank cannot even conceive of paying a driver next year. Would Trulli drive for less? Yes, but not for 90 per cent less, which is the kind of reduction that would be necessary to excite Sir Frank's interest.

Red Bull Racing © XPB/LAT

Besides, if either Webber or Rosberg should leave (or, conceivably, be asked to leave), then Williams would rather run the cheap-'n'-cheerful Alex Wurz (with whom they are anyway hugely impressed) than the costly-'n'-complex Trulli.

BMW? Perhaps; but somehow I can't quite see it.

Which leaves - well, other than the tail-end outfits that Trulli would surely rather drive nothing than drive for - one option: Red Bull.

Is it possible that Red Bull might hire Jarno Trulli? It is; just. Is it likely? It isn't; no. But it is probably now his only real option. For Adrian Newey has been heard to praise Trulli's natural speed in the past, and Adrian will want a naturally speedy man to drive his 2007 car.

And, if it were to happen, and the Newey-designed Red Bull RB3 turns out to be as quick as Adrian privately hopes - no, makes that expects - it to be... well, then, perhaps Jarno will at last have his day, and the wind will follow him yet, and his mood will again be right. And then, yes, he will once again be devastatingly effective.

But if Red Bull team principal Christian Horner decides to hire someone else instead, or to stick with David Coulthard and Christian Klien, then those like you and me who with our own eyes saw Jarno drive a quick lap - millimetre-perfect, utterly committed, serene-as-you-like and smooth-as-silk despite operating on the narrowest knife-edge between triumph and disaster - will wonder how it was that there could possibly have been no room at the F1 inn for him after 2006.

It will be a mystery, and something of a tragedy. But I, for one, will never forget the sight of Trulli on a quick one. No, more than that: I feel privileged to have seen it. If you did, too, I bet you feel the same.