Would Hamilton really be a worthwhile F1 investment for Ferrari?

The beautifully ornate Casino de Monte-Carlo might provide a timely and fitting backdrop for Lewis Hamilton this weekend. Amid recent reports that Ferrari is seriously courting his services, it appears as though the seven-time world champion has a £40 million gamble to consider. Should he stick loyally to Mercedes as he has always declared in public that he will, or bet it all on red and finally give in to the oft-mentioned intangible pull from Maranello?

Now, a cynic might say that these Hamilton-to-Ferrari rumours have arrived just in the nick of time to ensure there’s a juicy headline in lieu of the cancelled Emilia Romagna Grand Prix. But it does seem the speculation is better supported this time around compared to past whispers of Hamilton doing what his idol Ayrton Senna never realised by driving for the Prancing Horse.

If the possible switch is to be considered, it looks to be a classic heart versus head scenario. Hamilton is 38. While former McLaren team-mate Fernando Alonso, 41, is working wonders at Aston Martin this season, both drivers have fewer GPs ahead of them compared to those behind. Age-defying talents they might be, but Hamilton is in the twilight of his F1 driving career. Given Ferrari has fallen further back to Red Bull in 2023 and plugs needs to be found for its leaking management structure, the team doesn’t appear to be on the cusp of titles to make their two timelines marry up.

It is hard to concretely determine that a Ferrari move would take Hamilton any closer to that eighth world crown than staying put at Mercedes. At least his current employer is more abreast of its ground-effect design shortfalls, is poised to debut a major upgrade in Monaco, will listen to driver requests and reposition the car cockpit for the W15 and has swapped technical chiefs James Allison and Mike Elliott all to find performance sooner.

But perhaps Hamilton might reluctantly and privately conclude that nothing short of a Red Bull seat will move him clear of Michael Schumacher in the world championship record books. Mercedes might have announced a £70 million revamp for its Brackley factory, but a 2025 completion date will come too late for him. Therefore, exchanging silver for scarlet will make as much difference on-track as swapping frying pan for fire. A win or two might come occasionally but certainly no titles. Therefore, scratch an itch, give in to the romanticism and enjoy an Italian sunset that will at least match, maybe even beat, the Mercedes pay cheque.

To do so, however, would mean Hamilton having been shown enough of an incentive to go against everything he has said publicly on his Mercedes future until as recently as April. While in the last year of his current deal with the Three-Pointed Star, Hamilton has said a renewal with the manufacturer that has supported him since he was 13 would come as a mere formality. Motorsport boss Toto Wolff reckons emails between the two have already been exchanged regarding revised terms. And any new agreement would ensure every one of Hamilton’s F1 starts since his 2007 debut have been and will continue to be powered by a Mercedes engine.

When Wolff earlier this year admitted that it would only be natural for Hamilton to shop around if the team couldn’t provide him with a more competitive car over the coming campaigns, the driver appeared to rubbish this. He said he wanted to follow the path of grand prix winner and revered 1955 Mille Miglia victor Stirling Moss by staying linked with Mercedes until the “end of days”.

Hamilton has said he wants to end his career with Mercedes

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

When asked about his Mercedes future during the Australian GP weekend, Hamilton said: “I feel amazing about it. I continue to feel very much at home. It's family. I see myself being with Mercedes till my last days, to be honest. If you look at the legends, Sir Stirling Moss was with Mercedes till the end of days. So, that's been the dream for me to one day have that… well I have that, so just continue on with that and continue to build with the brand.”

On a possible exit, what Hamilton has said is: “If there's ever going to be a point where I feel like I'm not able to do that, then it's time for a youngster to come in to take my seat. But I'm still pretty young, in pretty decent shape.” That certainly doesn’t preclude him from a team advisor/management role should he want to remain a brand ambassador to ensure a run of highly equipped company cars, free lunches and well-paying after-dinner speeches for life.

A Ferrari move would mean potentially losing all of that. Plus, what of the off-track legacy Hamilton has cultivated by using his influence within Mercedes to help establish the ‘Accelerate 25’ diversity and inclusion programme? While that project is already well underway given a 2025 timeline to ensure at least 25% of all new starters at the team are from under-represented groups, it is right to question whether Hamilton will be able to advance his advocacy quite so effectively should he move to pastures new.

Despite any vox-popping to the contrary, Hamilton doesn’t feel a need to run scared from an intra-team battle with the impressive George Russell. And if Ferrari was to keep hold of talismanic Charles Leclerc, the internal task awaiting Hamilton post-theoretical Modena move doesn’t appear a whole lot easier either.

Exchanging silver for scarlet will make as much difference on-track as swapping frying pan for fire. A win or two might come occasionally but certainly no titles

As for Ferrari’s motivations, if the proposed mega-bucks contract for Hamilton really is in the top drawer of company president John Elkann’s desk, it’s not too late for him to reconsider. While the cost cap is king, any ‘Hamilton fund’ can be better invested elsewhere so that another driver can soon enough be provided with the tools required to repopulate the trophy cabinet. See Manchester United getting shot of Cristiano Ronaldo (although that is not to compare the prickly temperament of the Portuguese with Hamilton) to allow other, previously written-off members of its squad to shine under new management.

Instead of going after the Brit, sell the project to Leclerc. Placate the 25-year-old by convincing him that the team is capable of winning titles from as early as 2024. He has more to go in F1, so is the better long-term option around which to galvanise. That is if Ferrari really is ever to replicate the hallowed Jean Todt/Ross Brawn-Schumacher era that cultivated so much success. Then, the Hamilton-to-Ferrari rumours that pop up every two years can be left alone.

Hamilton comes at a top dollar - that's money that should be invested by Ferrari into its current superstar Charles Leclerc

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images