Why the right F1 driver is 'screwed' for 2019

It has been impossible to talk about Esteban Ocon in recent months without triggering an emotive reaction from someone.

Reigning Formula 1 world champion Lewis Hamilton said Ocon being out of a drive shows the championship is in a "weird place" with a structure that is "probably wrong". Mercedes boss Toto Wolff slammed the "politics" and "lies" he believes are behind his protege facing a season on the sidelines.

Now, supposedly adding insult to career injury, a driver lower in the Mercedes pecking order has secured one of the seats Ocon viewed as his last chance. Williams has confirmed George Russell for 2019, meaning Mercedes will have a junior on the grid but not the one it has spent the past few months declaring a future world champion.

You cannot begrudge Russell earning his F1 graduation, though, and while this outcome might seem another kick in the guts for Ocon, it may prove to be the best of a bad situation.

Russell landing the Williams drive means Ocon appears to have missed out on a seat at four F1 teams for next year. It's likely that Russell's 2019 team-mate will need to bring backing, and Mercedes has made it clear it is not willing to pay. So, add Williams to a list including Force India, McLaren and Renault, and the extremely unfortunate prospect looks likely to become a reality - against his employer's wishes, Ocon will be benched next season.

By rights, this should not happen. Daniel Ricciardo's decision to quit Red Bull for Renault triggered a volatile summer of driver market activity of which Ocon was the chief victim. In fact, Ricciardo admits that "indirectly, I screwed him".

Ocon should be on the grid, but he should not be in F1 at any cost. Williams would be merely a stop-gap while he waits for something better to come along. It's a better fit for Russell than for Ocon and both drivers can use this situation to further their careers instead of both ending up in stagnation.

"It's no secret it's been a difficult season for Williams this year but there's lots of things taking place to try to improve their future," says Russell. "I really hope I can be part of that journey with them.

"It's hugely motivating - 100%. From a personal point of view it's almost the perfect time to get this opportunity with Williams and really show myself not only as a quick driver, but somebody who can lead the team and progress further forward."

That is quite an easy position for Russell to take. The 20-year-old is on the brink of sealing the Formula 2 title as a rookie, having won GP3 last year. Now he's sealed his F1 debut. It's Charles Leclerc all over again - and we know how that's working out...

But Russell can afford to gamble his 2019 season on Williams making progress. If there is no major step and the team remains at the foot of the times, or thereabouts, Russell has plenty to gain. The experience alone is worth the move.

It would be logical for Mercedes to place Ocon in a role that will give him a working knowledge of everything he would need to be a success in 2020

Whatever Williams does next season, this is win-win for Russell - if he can produce. Proving yourself in a bad car is a great way to impress potential suitors, but if Williams makes the improvement it is hoping for, then Russell can go even further and mix it with more established drivers. There is no real downside.

Ocon is not in the same position. With two seasons of regular top-10 finishes - and the odd starring qualifying performance - under his belt at the best-of the-rest team, there is nothing for him to prove at Williams. His next race seat needs to represent a stride forward, not a step back or (at best) a shift sideways.

Mercedes wants Ocon in the big league, which is why a move to Renault would have been perfect. Bigger setting, bigger pressure - a good stepping stone between the midfield and an elite team. That rug was pulled from underneath him, but that doesn't mean Ocon should take any seat for the sake of being an F1 race driver next year.

Being mired in the midfield next season would give Ocon no real opportunity to further his case for Mercedes to sign him in place of Valtteri Bottas. He could only harm it. Now Mercedes has the chance to embed Ocon fully inside the team, and give him the chance to crank up the pressure on Bottas for 2020.

Admittedly, Mercedes could have eliminated all doubt over Ocon's future by promoting him to a race seat alongside Hamilton for 2019, but Bottas won three grands prix last year and started this season running the four-time world champion extremely close. Bottas would have at least matched his '17 victory tally by now had he not suffered his own freak circumstances. And Mercedes thought it had a slam-dunk option for Ocon when it renewed Bottas's contract.

The situation has changed significantly and if there is no race drive on the horizon, Ocon should find himself in a good position to shift the balance of power at Mercedes in his favour. If he can land a test and reserve driver role he can learn the personnel, learn the car, learn the controls - do everything to star behind the scenes.

Bottas admitted last year, when he made the late switch from Williams to Mercedes to replace Nico Rosberg, that he was surprised by how much there was to learn. He said that there was so much new information that "at some points it kind of overloaded me". Mercedes can give Ocon the chance to avoid that. He would then not need to shortcut the learning process and could invest more time in truly understanding the Mercedes way of working.

Mercedes' chiefs will not suddenly forget what has been impressive about Ocon's 2018 season and he will be ahead of Russell in the queue to replace Bottas regardless of what the Brit manages next year. It would be entirely logical for Mercedes to take this opportunity to place Ocon in a role that will give him a working knowledge of everything he would need to be a success in 2020, should that opportunity come.

Therefore, it's easy to see a situation in which not racing next year does not hurt Ocon's prospects, especially compared to a season with Williams. It's not like he's Stoffel Vandoorne, cast aside without an obvious way back. And, fundamentally, sitting out 2019 is less damaging for Ocon than it would be for Russell who, even with junior single-seater successes, is still an unknown quantity. If Russell missed out on a '19 drive, would he be parked for a year in another series and risk disrupting that momentum? Would he find himself on the grid in '20 as easily?

Ultimately F1 pedigree is a stronger factor to fall back on than success in junior categories, so if Mercedes is going to have a protege miss out for a year, then Ocon is the lesser of two evils. When you then factor in the relative benefits of Russell driving for Williams and Ocon embedding himself at Mercedes, the situation can be far less problematic than it first appears.

The other factor in this is what it means for Williams. True, any team would want the best option possible and, based simply on where they are in their respective careers, Ocon is a more desirable driver than Russell. But Williams is a medium-term project, not somewhere to get an instant hit, which is why Russell has committed to a "multi-year" deal.

Signing Russell will galvanise the team. It has received a vote of confidence from the best young driver outside F1 - his titles (his BRDC Formula 4 triumph, GP3 win and likely F2 success) see to that - and it represents a clear statement of intent from Williams management. The pay-driver jibes thrown at Sergey Sirotkin and Lance Stroll, however inaccurate the team maintained they were, cut Williams deeply.

This is an opportunity for Ocon, for Williams, for Russell and for Mercedes to start building something better

Russell's appointment, which is not via a Mercedes engine discount or anything like that, will not be met the same way. It is a return to a good old-fashioned 'he's mega, we want him' mentality.

And in Russell, Williams really has everything it could want. He's highly rated, personable (which is great for sponsors), motivated and wants to be there. Russell took it upon himself to call Williams chief technical officer Paddy Lowe and lobby for a meeting with the squad's senior management. That's impressive and sends all the right messages.

Ocon is a bright, popular, professional young man and he would undoubtedly give 100% on-track and off it had he ended up at Williams next season. But he would only have 'ended up' at Williams and both parties deserve better than a marriage of convenience.

F1's stormy driver market may have "screwed" Ocon in the short-term, but it has ended with more than just a silver lining. This is an opportunity for Ocon, for Williams, for Russell and for Mercedes to start building something better. However frustrating it was to reach this outcome, it is better than settling for an awkward compromise with a rapid expiry date.