Why Ricciardo is right to stay at Red Bull

The 2016 Formula 1 season has so far been tough to stomach for Daniel Ricciardo. A strategy call robbed him of victory in Spain. Two weeks later, a pit mix-up in Monaco cost him another. Two wins, earned on merit, snatched away through no fault of his own.

The first must have hurt, given it was his new team-mate Max Verstappen, a Red Bull prodigy, who took his maiden grand prix victory on his first weekend with the team, becoming F1's youngest winner in the process.

The second cut deep because every driver wants to win in Monaco. Chances to do so don't come round very often - Lewis Hamilton had to wait eight years between his first and second victories in the principality.

Rather than papering over the cracks, Ricciardo's trademark smile - which usually remains no matter how bad the situation - was nowhere to be seen. He felt let down and he wasn't afraid to show it this time. Losses like that can have a huge impact on your career trajectory.

But just weeks after the toughest time of his career, Ricciardo and Red Bull confirmed the partnership would continue through to 2018. Ricciardo realised that Red Bull offers him, at least in the short term, his best shot at winning the world title.

Despite what the history books will say about this year, Ricciardo has been the star of the season so far. Verstappen, Sebastian Vettel, Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg have delivered strong performances, but Ricciardo has done so consistently.

Ricciardo has plenty of years left to achieve great things in F1 - but he knows the clock is ticking. By his 27th birthday, last Saturday, he had accumulated 97 starts, three wins, 11 podiums, one pole position and zero world titles. As the table below shows, that does not compare favourably with the likes of Vettel, Hamilton and Fernando Alonso, but is very similar to Jenson Button's record.

"I'll always appreciate having this opportunity in F1, but naturally the competitor in me wants to achieve things while I'm here," he says.

"I've tasted the champagne and I want more of it. You see other guys winning that you believe you can be up against and you can challenge, and that's where sometimes I look at Seb and he's won four titles. I went up against him in '14 and I did fairly well against him and I've got nothing to show for it.

"It's not me being bitter - I'm not jealous of anyone - it's just that I want to put myself in the best position possible to show what I believe I've got. Monaco was an example of that - we had a good car there, and the driver can get a bit more out of it in Monaco. That was a good opportunity for me to show that I was on that top shelf of drivers.

"What I don't want to be is that driver people talk about in future years like, 'Wow, he was so fast and he was so talented yet he never won a world title'. I don't want to be that guy. I've got time on my side, but I don't want to waste time."

It's that fear of not delivering on his potential, along with his speed, ruthlessness on track and ability to motivate a team around him, that will make the difference when Ricciardo gets the opportunity to fight for that title.

Whether that opportunity comes at Red Bull remains to be seen, but by staying, he's put himself in a great position. Red Bull was in disarray last year, its relationship with Renault in tatters and its competitiveness and future in F1 brought into question, but it got its house in order.

Over the winter it produced arguably the best chassis on the grid. Renault made huge strides with what's now badged as a TAG Heuer power unit. An upturn in form at the back-end of last year, coupled with a strong start to 2016, has given Ricciardo and the team as a whole a real belief that they can fight their way back to the top.

The engine was of particular concern. But Red Bull stuck with it - more out of necessity than desire - and it's paid off. Renault is making progress both in terms of its organisational structure, but also performance. Engine technical director Remi Taffin says he expects around 0.7 seconds improvement in lap time once Renault has maximised its latest upgrade, introduced in Monaco. Another is expected later in the year.

Ricciardo was asked before Austria whether he ever questioned his future at Red Bull, especially given that he was expecting to fight for the title in 2015.

"Sure, you do you think long-term as well," he says. "2014 was a step down from where the team was in '13, and then the first few races of '15 was quite a significant step down.

"I don't think we were close to the podium in the first few races at all. Then it was, 'If this trend continues, what's it going to be like in 2016 and beyond?' So it does cross your mind, it's natural.

"But I was very impressed with how, within the season, they turned it around. Between Silverstone and Budapest it was like 'bang', and then we showed the pace in some races from there. So that was good for everyone. We all needed it."

When planning for your future, any decision is based on what's available at the time. For Ricciardo, a seat at Mercedes was unlikely, given that Nico Rosberg will probably re-sign alongside Hamilton. A chance at Ferrari, though, was a possibility, unsurprisingly given the way Ricciardo has led Red Bull since Vettel's departure.

In 2014, Ricciardo won three grands prix and comprehensively outperformed his multiple world champion team-mate Vettel. The following year, he took on the role of number-one driver with aplomb, leading the team and proving he could consistently get the most out of the car, even if it was struggling for pace. This year, he should have had two wins to his name.

Ricciardo says Ferrari didn't made its interest known to him directly, but he understood that if it was to create a vacancy by dropping Kimi Raikkonen, he was on the list. For most drivers, being considered for a seat at Ferrari is a special thing. Sergio Perez recently said that should Ferrari make an offer, it would be very difficult to turn down.

But by staying at Red Bull, Ricciardo remains at a team that rates him very highly and one in which he has huge confidence. Moving to a rival, even if it currently has potential, throws in an element of unpredictability.

Perez moved to McLaren hoping to challenge for wins. But McLaren's 2013 car was a big step down from its predeccesor, he was dropped after one season and it arguably hurt his reputation and confidence more than if he'd stayed at Sauber. There is also the unknown of 2017, when sweeping changes to the regulations are introduced.

Red Bull is renowned for the strength of its chassis, putting it in a prime position to react effectively to the changes. Combined with Renault now making progress, that is an enticing package.

Verstappen's promotion could be seen as a threat to Ricciardo's hopes of winning the title with Red Bull. But the team lets its drivers fight, and Ricciardo has so far shown this year that he has the measure of the teenager, particularly in qualifying. If anything, Verstappen's presence is pushing Ricciardo on to even greater things.

Staying at Red Bull could be regarded as the safe option, but it's actually a shrewd move, one that puts him in the best place to challenge for the title next year.

When asked how crucial it is for his long-term future that Red Bull is competitive, Ricciardo says: "I would have to cross that bridge if we're in that scenario. I have questions about what I'm doing in the future, but right now I have a pretty positive mindset about where the team's heading. Hopefully it goes in the direction we're all thinking it will."

He's set to stay at Red Bull until the end of 2018, at which point he'll be 29 (which, incidentally, is the same age as Button when he won his title). Providing Ricciardo continues to improve as a driver, delivering performances of the kind we saw in Monaco, he will remain in demand. And in F1 that's a pretty rare position to be in.