Why Red Bull's F1 future is so reliant on Honda's

Look back barely four years, to a time of fiery failures and insults about a "GP2 engine", or even to the embarrassing public divorce from McLaren in 2017 that left Honda on its knees in Formula 1.

Then, it would have seemed absurd to think Red Bull would consider it a "great relief" to be extending a partnership with that very engine manufacturer at the end of 2019.

But F1 loves a plot twist. The extent to which Red Bull and Honda have become vital to one another has been a consequence of Honda's path to redemption, first by rebuilding its respectability in 2018 with Toro Rosso and then by returning to winning ways this year with Red Bull.

It is an expensive, feel-good story, one that's starting to achieve the sort of heroics promised when McLaren and Honda revived their famous partnership for 2015. Even if it would have previously been inconceivable that the Japanese manufacturer would wait until 2019 to taste victory - and when it did, it would be with Red Bull.

But that is today's reality. Red Bull and Honda are celebrating a strong first season together. And on the eve of the final race of the campaign, Honda took the first step to dismissing doubt over its future in F1 by extending its deal with Red Bull and Toro Rosso to 2021.

Helmut Marko would not be calling Honda's first commitment to be part of the next F1 rules cycle a "relief" that allows Red Bull to press ahead with its "plans" if Honda was anything except a key player in the team's future. Each party is supporting the other.

For Honda, Red Bull was a final shot at redemption. It had failed to score a podium in three years with McLaren and after multiple seasons of development and spending, in Honda's own words, it had nothing to show for "a lot of money".

Earlier this year, Honda was at the last-chance saloon, taking its first sip from a blue and silver can of energy drink. On Red Bull's side, team boss Christian Horner always said this was going to be a "transitional year".

But the partnership had to represent something bigger. Honda was considered a better long-term bet than Renault without representing a step backwards in the short-term.

This season has gone a long way to validating that decision, especially with how much smoother the working relationship has been. But Honda was also Red Bull's only real option. Its relationship with Renault deteriorated beyond repair. Mercedes and Ferrari will not be inclined to power a serious title rival. There are no other engine manufacturers on the horizon.

Red Bull and Honda was not so much a marriage of convenience as one of necessity. But it was also rooted in common ground, and has blossomed into a rewarding, healthy and successful relationship.

Honda insists its product is now capable of lasting long enough to complete a full season within the engine limits

From Honda's first win in 13 years, back in Austria, to Max Verstappen charging to the brink of third in the championship, ahead of both Ferrari drivers, it has been a season of highs for both parties. Although, if you look at the statistics on the surface, it may appear like just another year of Red Bull scrapping for crumbs.

It won the same number of races, scored the same number of poles and fought for the same third place in the drivers' championship as it had in five championship-less years with Renault. So, what was different? Should this be trumpeted as a cautious success, or a failure masked by sporadic glories?

"It's always difficult to judge if they've exceeded expectations, but what I think is very positive - that we had a target throughout the year and we have always been at the same level or above the target, which we've never had before," says Verstappen.

"I'm very happy. We lost a lot of points in the past because of reliability issues, which were both car and engine, and I think we have improved both sides. I am very pleased with that because at the end of the day if you want to fight for a world championship you can't retire on those kinds of things."

Reliability has been at the heart of Honda's progress. Red Bull did not make it through the year without grid penalties, but its extra engines were introduced strategically to prevent failures, not a response to expensive explosions. Perhaps that seems like splitting hairs, but the progress was real.

Honda insists its product is now capable of lasting long enough to complete a full season within the engine limits. And Verstappen also makes the effort to point out that Red Bull has not retired because of a single Honda-caused problem all season long.

"They made a huge step forward," says Verstappen. "The engine changes were all because of performance upgrades. We knew we had to start at the back, or drop five or 10 places, but it was all for performance that would help us over the races afterwards. It was not linked to an engine just being worn out, so that's also a good thing for next year."

At the core of this was an MGU-H upgrade introduced in late 2018 and a new turbocharger that arrived in France, where Honda's Spec 3 made its debut.

To put that into perspective, manufacturers tend to only introduce their second-spec engine one or two races before that event. So, Honda went on the offensive this year with an aggressive development schedule that allowed it to bring in a Spec 4 engine after the summer break - affording an extra engine upgrade compared to its rivals, at the expense of grid penalties it knew it would have to take anyway.

This was a net win, particularly as the new turbo completed a pair of technical breakthroughs driven by collaboration with Honda's jet-engine division that finally allowed the F1 department to crack the code to building reliable, high-performance, high-rotation turbines. That is vital to the performance of the MGU-H and turbo independently, but also to the universal application of the entire engine.

It would be wrong to say Honda is now a match for Mercedes, but Verstappen reckons it is "very close" - closer than ever in qualifying trim, and the difference is almost negligible in the races. It was only Ferrari's massive (and heavily scrutinised) step in qualifying after the summer break that appeared to disrupt the momentum Red Bull and Honda had built.

Look a little closer, though, and you can see that it was still there. Red Bull had good pace at Monza (of all places) hidden by a grid penalty, set-up thwarted a victory bid in Singapore, and a likely podium in Japan was snuffed out by Charles Leclerc wiping out Verstappen at the first corner.

Buoyed by a performance boost at the high-altitude events, by the end of the year Verstappen had revived his strong pre-summer-break form. Hamilton unwittingly forced him off the track in Mexico and then a puncture further wrecked his race, but Verstappen had been fastest in qualifying, finished third in normal conditions a week later in the US after challenging for pole on merit, then won from pole (after passing Hamilton twice on-track) in Brazil.

Without Honda, Red Bull has not got its own engine partner. Without Honda, Red Bull loses momentum and cohesion

It would be easy to look back 12 months and point to Red Bull having a similar late-season flourish with Renault. But Renault has specialised in peaks and troughs in this engine era, whereas Honda is on an unmistakably upward curve. It was easy to make progress initially because it was so far behind, but give the company credit for continuing to find gains as they have become more marginal.

That's the level Honda must be held to because it's what will be needed to fight for the title next year and beyond, which is Red Bull's ultimate goal and its own ambition. Results this year have undoubtedly secured Honda's short-term future; continuing that momentum next season will be key to firming up anything beyond 2021.

"There are still further talks for a possible agreement for 2022 and 2023," Marko said in an interview with Red Bull-owned Servus TV earlier this week. "Then it will depend on how far the regulations allow a cost reduction. But the FIA has begun to recognise [this] and intends to freeze the engines from 2021, which means that further development will practically stagnate and then the costs will be drastically reduced once again.

"This is probably also a very decisive point for Honda, if it could come to another agreement."

Marko is right to emphasise the significance of this because a 2021 commitment is a halfway house.

Yes, it allows both sides to continue in the short-term, without disruption, but it also indicates there is still some doubt beyond that. The prospect of a title bid is key to convincing those in charge back in Japan to continue ploughing money into a Honda F1 engine project, but the total amount of money needs to be lowered. And so, negotiations over Honda's future may also prove a decisive point for Red Bull, too.

Without Honda, Red Bull has not got its own engine partner. Without Honda, Red Bull loses momentum and cohesion. Without Honda, Red Bull must doubt it can fight for a championship in the near future. And if Red Bull cannot fight for a championship, it cannot realistically expect to hold onto a prodigious talent like Verstappen.

So, what would Red Bull's F1 future hold without Honda, if such a future exists at all?

Verstappen says he was never worried Honda would not continue, and it seemed like a no-brainer decision. That is not how major car manufacturers operate, though, so a question mark always remained.

But given Honda's fate seems intertwined with Red Bull, it is no surprise to hear that the Japanese company's initial commitment led Marko to sigh with relief.