Why Red Bull and Ferrari really start as F1’s early 2022 ‘favourites’

He came out of the final corner poised to show exactly what he could do on the softest tyres Pirelli has produced for the coming campaign. He’d treated them carefully through the warm-up lap around the abrasive 3.36-miles of the Bahrain International Circuit. It was close to the same conditions as qualifying will be in the season opener, now just around the corner. He is the Formula 1 world champion; the rest must chase.

Then came sudden, unexpected disaster. The rears lit up suddenly and around he went. This was Lewis Hamilton at the very end of pre-season testing in 2021, but exactly the same thing happened to Max Verstappen in 2022.

But there’s where the uncanny similarity ends. Because, after going through a full 360-degree spin and trundling on preparing for another run on the damaged rubber, Verstappen did something remarkable.

He still went to the top of the times. And then he did it again, deposing Charles Leclerc, just went it looked like Ferrari’s excellent pre-season would be rewarded with the headline lap time one week ahead of the 2022 race campaign getting underway. Plus, even though Mercedes’ handling appears to be all over the place and it’s off the pace, as it was in 2021, it is for very different reasons this time around and the expectation it will simply close the clear gap to Red Bull seemingly isn’t there.

Max Verstappen ended the test fastest, with his first effort dipping under the 1m32s barrier coming on tyres that he'd damaged with a spin

Photo by: Mark Thompson

The final night duel

As was the case in this test last year, the second session of the final day of running in Bahrain was box office viewing – with the majority of the teams going for performance runs, some for the first time in all six days of 2022 testing.

At Barcelona last month, the headline times were even more irrelevant, as they always are in testing due to the usual caveats regarding fuel loads and engine modes. But the late fliers were also set with teams applying solutions to the porpoising issue that had reared its head – and did so repeatedly and awkwardly for many drivers – that weren’t thought to be suitably legally compliant to use going forwards.

The final period was Verstappen’s to command. It got off to a bad start with his shocking spin, but his subsequent 1m31.973s given the circumstances his tyres had been through was simply stunning

With more acceptable solutions now in place, the final night running took on extra significance because of the conditions the field faced on the opening two days. These were very windy, but also very hot – with Friday in particular pushing the mercury at the track halfway down the tiny island of Bahrain to the upper 30 degrees Celsius range. On Friday this had come down by over 10 degrees and the tyres were therefore degrading more in line with what Pirelli had expected ahead of the test.

At just before 5.30pm local time, Ferrari made the first move. When the track went live following Mick Schumacher spinning his Haas in a similar way to Verstappen – at the start of a push lap after a steady warm-up tour, but going very close to the wall on the inside and rather limping away – to cause a brief red flag, Leclerc was sent out on the C4s.

He used them to take the top spot from Verstappen, with a 1m32.415s. He then switched to the C5 softs for a subsequent flier, but despite setting a then purple middle sector, Leclerc ended up slower than his personal best and Ferrari afterwards switched him back to data gathering on the C3s for the remainder of the session. But the potential for a quicker time was clearly there.

Then Mercedes was the focus of attention, as George Russell was on track also on the C5s. He used them to get to 0.344s behind Leclerc on a 1m32.759s, but all around the lap the Mercedes looked wild and skittish, porpoising badly even through the fast turns in the final sector and at the end of the short, downhill straight ahead of the final corners.

After returning the garage for a set-up tweak and then abandoning a subsequent lap on the same compound due to a big oversteer snap while running through Turn 2, Russell cut the gap to his rivals ahead with a lap that looked much more planted, but still had Mercedes well adrift.

Verstappen came in for new C5 tyres before setting an even quicker time that stood as the fastest of the test

Photo by: Mark Thompson

Suddenly there was just 30 minutes of testing to go – but only after Valtteri Bottas had caused a final red flag when he pulled over with a transmission glitch just after posting Alfa Romeo’s best time of the test and used up 15 minutes. The final period was Verstappen’s to command.

It got off to a bad start with his shocking spin, but his subsequent 1m31.973s given the circumstances his tyres had been through was simply stunning. But Red Bull was not finished. After bringing Verstappen in for a spell in the garage, it sent him back out – again on the C5s – with just 10 minutes of the day remaining. Despite losing time through sector two, Verstappen blitzed to purple sectors in the opening and final thirds of the lap and set a 1m31.720s that put him top by 0.695s over Leclerc.

Alpine got in on the act in the final moments of testing too, with Fernando Alonso’s 1m32.698s getting the double world champion ahead of Russell by 0.061s, 0.978s slower than Verstappen. But although this distorts the overall final lap time standings for the 10 teams, the pecking order picture for Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes is pretty clear: they lead the way.

How the leading trio moved clear

The first day of the test was about the teams working their way up to the limit with the new cars at a track that was much harder work overall compared to the near-laboratory conditions of Barcelona, plus the focus on Mercedes’ massive upgrade for the second test. Pierre Gasly led the way on a very blustery first day, which Haas missed half of due to its freight arriving late - the team was somewhat contentiously allocated an extra hour past the 7pm end point for the rest on Friday, then was allowed to run for an hour earlier than everyone else on Saturday and for two more that evening.

On day two the teams paid more attention to the softer rubber, which had a difficult time in the sweltering circumstances, and Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz Jr led the way.

As day three began, attention was fixed on Red Bull’s final testing upgrades and how this would influence the performance of the RB18, which to that point had yet to doing any dedicated performance running or do anything other than perfunctory laps on the softer tyres.

After spending the first two hours working to understand the impact of the newly-dimpled sidepods (already shaped aggressively in the RB18’s initial concept), Perez moved to the head of the times with a run on the C4 tyres.

Perez set the fastest time on Saturday morning with the updated RB18

Photo by: Motorsport Images

Although the typical testing caveats applied as relentlessly as they always do, this progress from Red Bull rather took it to another level and helped established a clearer picture of the likely pecking order at the front of the pack.

The following summary explains how we think that order lies and is arranged using a combination of the headline best times, insight from paddock sources, assessing how the cars looked to be handling from our observations from the trackside at the Sakhir venue, plus crunching the numbers from the various logged race simulations.

Red Bull seems to lead the way, although it appears to be pretty close with Ferrari. It must be placed ahead though, simply because it ended up with the best time of the test and because it does not seem to be having an on-going issue with porpoising.

Ferrari can end testing feeling very pleased with its six days of work and quietly confident in the F1-75. It’s little wonder that in the day one press conference in Bahrain, Mattia Binotto looked and acted rather exuberantly

The final day upgrades – although not taking the RB18 to the “extreme” design of the Mercedes W13, per Red Bull team boss Christian Horner’s official take on the matter – did go a long way to making the car look rapid, but crucially consistently poised as Perez and later Verstappen pounded around.

Ferrari can end testing feeling very pleased with its six days of work and quietly confident in the F1-75. It’s little wonder that in the day one press conference in Bahrain, Mattia Binotto looked and acted rather exuberantly – complimenting Mercedes’ design, at the time under great scrutiny, even as he insisted the Silver Arrows squad and Red Bull were the teams to watch. He kept that mantra to the ending of the test, but it’s clear Ferrari is in significantly better shape than it has been for the last two seasons.

There is, of course, a note of caution needed at this point. Back in 2019, Ferrari was conclusively the testing victor, but was soundly beaten when the season got underway as Mercedes’ development took it clear. We can’t know if something similar will happen again just yet, but what we can pass on from our understanding is that Ferrari has historically typically run a lighter fuel load during testing and race weekend practice sessions.

The Ferrari is also still bouncing at the end of the straights in a way Red Bull does not. But the car is definitely reliable. Ferrari ended up with the third-highest lap total, behind Mercedes and AlphaTauri, but building well on Barcelona where it was the mileage leader. Plus, it handles consistently and smoothly for the drivers, other than the porpoising at the end of the straights, which is all Leclerc could criticise of his new machine on the final day.

Binotto could be very encouraged by Ferrari's step forward, with the team in a much stronger position than it has been for the past two seasons

Photo by: Ferrari

It’s only right to say that there is every chance Ferrari has been hiding more speed compared to its rivals, plus Leclerc’s best time was done on a compound step softer than Verstappen’s. There’s a caveat to note here though, as the C4-C5 delta was essentially non-existent due to the C5 “not working with a real performance”, per Pirelli motorsport boss Mario Isola. This comes down to the rough Bahrain track surface once again.

But Ferrari did show fantastic pace in one key area: race simulation running. Red Bull did not conduct anything comparable as it concentrated on shorter efforts with set fuel loads as is typically the case in FP2 sessions on race weekends, and it did so mainly during the afternoon on the opening day. But during the final hours of day two, Leclerc and Russell ran very similar long-run programmes.

During a 13-lap opening C3 stint, Leclerc toured at an average of 1m42.167s, while Russell’s 14-lap stint was 0.894s slower. On the next 13 vs 14-lap comparison on the same compound after both had been through the pits, the gap was 0.79s in the Ferrari’s favour. Leclerc’s final stint on the C2s was cut short by a red flag thrown so the FIA could test its race restart systems, but he had started off averaging 0.64s slower than the 1m40.943s Russell managed to end his ‘race’ run on the same compound. Nevertheless, and with the previous understanding of fuel load practices in mind, that is really encouraging for Ferrari.

Mercedes can likely take heart from knowing the fuel and engine mode caveats will likely make the overall performance gaps versus Red Bull and Ferrari on the long-run data come down. It was also clocked significantly down on top speed through the speed trap throughout the second test (although intriguingly Leclerc’s best figure there on the final day was only fractionally slower than Russell, at 0.4km/h down, versus 5.5km/h adrift of Verstappen). But the gaps are really there for Mercedes and the team is in a tough spot.

And it’s all down to the porpoising problem. Autosport understands that the W13’s novel sidepod approach and overall aerodynamic concept generates a very impressive amount of downforce. It’s just that in this new formula, when it comes to the huge floors flexing at top speed and bouncing as a result, this exacerbates the porpoising problem.

PLUS: The mechanics behind porpoising in F1 - and how to fix it

It seems Mercedes is much better when it alters its ride to address the issue, but it loses significant performance as a result. And so, when Russell ran low to the ground and on the optimum approach for his qualifying simulation on the C5s, he had to cope with severe porpoising even through corners. It was a wild sight.

Mercedes believes Red Bull and Ferrari are ahead right now, and while there is a clearly a certain amount of gamesmanship going on with such suggestions, the thinking behind this concerns how it might fix the porpoising problem. What’s tricky is that Mercedes seemingly can’t get out of the issue with windtunnel work as has previously been the case – that’s why all the teams were suddenly shocked to be faced with the ground effect headache during their shakedowns and early test running. The simulations and scale modelling can only do so much.

Russell struggled badly with porpoising during his performance runs on Saturday night

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

The fix, it seems, must come mechanically. Mercedes is resolute it will find a way, but it may be some time in coming. This is why Hamilton said, “we have far bigger challenges this time, and they are not one week turnarounds” and “from what I'm told we have a considerable amount of pace to find” when he faced the press on the Saturday.

But Mercedes is very reliable, topping the lap count in Bahrain by 14 over AlphaTauri on 385. Plus, Bahrain has seemed to be something of a stumbling block for the team of late – particularly in 2021, as its gap to Red Bull was exacerbated by the track surface overheating the tyres and the race’s early place in the schedule meaning its factory might cannot yet be brought to bear.

The jumbled picture in the pack

Alpine snuck in ahead of Mercedes with Alonso’s late effort on the C4s, but the general understanding is that there is still a class-like divide between the leading squads and the rest, and so we have grouped the currently pink-liveried squad together with what appear to be its ‘midfield’ rivals at this stage. Even that is something of a misnomer, as there seems to be no clear backmarker group based on what was witnessed across testing.

Alfa’s big problem is still running without breakages, with team stopping on track repeatedly in Bahrain – Bottas’s opening session on day two coming to an end at the same point as his final night running did, at the Turn 8 hairpin

As the Bahrain event finished, Alpine still looked to be struggling badly with porpoising, but paddock sources suggest it was making changes to accentuate the issue so it knows where to work back to on its set-up. Plus, Alonso’s late lap time leap is understood not to have come on a low-fuel glory run and Alpine is confident it is in the mix with its rivals behind the leading trio.

Alfa Romeo bounced back from its tough test in Barcelona where reliability dramas mounted up. It ended up with the fifth quickest time thanks to Bottas’s efforts before his late stoppage on Saturday. This was set on the C3s, a short while after he’d set another competitive run on the same medium compound. But the gain was so pronounced it had the whiff of a low-fuel effort. That said, Alfa is thought to be the closest to the 2022 weight limit and therefore will be correspondingly stronger.

Alfa’s big problem is still running without breakages, with team stopping on track repeatedly in Bahrain – Bottas’s opening session on day two coming to an end at the same point as his final night running did, at the Turn 8 hairpin, with similar transmission trouble. It’s little wonder the Finn said, “my kind of biggest concern is doing a race distance because we've had multiple different kinds of issues during this test” and “we just hope there's no new issues coming up”.

AlphaTauri’s test was inevitably much smoother than its running in Spain because this time Red Bull’s sister squad did not lose a huge amount of running due to a crash. Pierre Gasly even survived under sustained, close pressure from Hamilton during their respective race sims on the final morning and handed over to team-mate Yuki Tsunoda to show AlphaTauri’s one-lap potential in the night-time duel.

Alfa Romeo has suffered frustrating reliability glitches, with Bottas forced to stop during the final hour near Turn 8

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Tsunoda got AlphaTauri to the sixth-fastest lap of the test using the C5s, but reckoned “there was lots more potential there but unfortunately, I just couldn’t put it together” – a late slide wide out of the final corners symptomatic of his frustrations. The understanding is that AlphaTauri ended up satisfied with its overall progress in Bahrain, but just lacked final set-up tweaks to get fully dialled in and therefore climb higher up the order.

Then comes Haas, which actually set the second quickest time of the second test overall. But Schumacher’s 1m32.241s on the C4s came during the extra two hours the team had been allocated to run after running ahead finished for the rest on Saturday night. Therefore, we’re setting the team as where it finished as the rest stopped – seventh in the overall standings.

Haas insiders are convinced that the VF-22 is a competitive package, but, as was the case in Barcelona, reliability blighted its running this time around. The worst run came during the early running on day two, where an oil leak, cooling problem and then a separate exhaust issue confined Schumacher to just 23 laps. Then there was a fuel system issue during late in the first session on the final day. But Schumacher’s best time during the flying lap efforts in the late official final night running came on the C3s, which at just 0.736s away from Leclerc’s time is encouraging.

But with Kevin Magnussen now back in place of the ousted Nikita Mazepin, Haas has gained a major asset in driving capabilities and is therefore in a much stronger place as a result than if had still been running the Russian. Magnussen is understood to have told the team that its overall package and therefore potential is very much better than when he departed the squad and F1 at the end of 2020.

McLaren finished with the eighth-fastest time overall, but the story of its test was very much elsewhere. Daniel Ricciardo missed it all due to catching COVID, for which he tested positive ahead of the final day after feeling unwell on Thursday, leaving Lando Norris to complete all the running in MCL36.

But the front brake duct cooling problem that cost McLaren major running on the first day was what really held it back in test two. Although the team was able to create a suitable fix at the track to stop the front brakes overheating, it nevertheless meant Norris could not do any serious long running. Although his 200 laps were the most of any single driver, that was 185 down on Mercedes’ leading total. A “real” solution to the brake problem is coming for next week’s race, according to team principal Andreas Seidl.

One major positive for McLaren is that it appears not to have a porpoising problem – running slickly and even better than Red Bull in this regard on the straights – and can run lower to the ground as a result. This is why Norris said attacking kerbs was “different” for McLaren compared to rival teams running higher rides, as at this stage they therefore are able to run over kerbs in a similar way to previous seasons and McLaren seemingly cannot.

McLaren had a problematic test due to brake issues and Ricciardo's COVID diagnosis, but it doesn't appear to be struggling with porpoising

Photo by: Carl Bingham / Motorsport Images

Aston Martin is next up in ninth in the overall times thanks to Sebastian Vettel’s best effort on the C4s during the final afternoon. Aston did not show its hand during the late qualifying simulations as others appeared to do, but the green team did have a very solid test overall.

Other than a reliability scare on day two when Vettel pulled off on the alternative layout used in the 2020 Sakhir GP and 2010 race here, which was understood to be precautionary when he felt a vibration the team could find no glaring cause for, Aston ran consistently. It ended up just 46 laps short of Mercedes, when it was 143 down compared to the top total at Barcelona. The team is confident it is competitive in the midfield, with Vettel concluding “behind the usual leading teams, it is a tight pack, so I expect fierce competition”.

Mercedes’ Bahrain speed trap figures do suggest there is more to come when the full engine modes are deployed for qualifying next Saturday. But the porpoising problem is just so severe and with it expected to take time to Mercedes to really address, lap time seems to be there for Red Bull and Ferrari to take advantage

Williams finished with the slowest time of the test, 3.451s behind Red Bull’s best. But the team was another not to engage in the late performance shootout.

The big story of Williams’ time so far in Bahrain was the huge brake fire that meant it lost over half of Friday’s running time. Team boss Jost Capito would not be drawn on the exact reason for the dramatic incident, other than calling it “stupid”, which suggests a minor procedural problem occurred, presumably even before Nicholas Latifi left the pits on the run that ended in flames.

But Williams’ conviction from Barcelona shines through still and it surely does not seem set to repeat its 2019-2020 horror at the back.

Testing’s final conclusions in 2022

One reason why so many teams are predicting they are in good shape is that the field behind the leading trio appears to be pretty compressed as testing ends – which is both good and bad news when considering the key aim of spreading success around the grid behind the big rules reset this has all been about. So, correspondingly, conclusions about many teams are hard to pin down definitively.

At the front, Red Bull insists Mercedes is holding something back in a big way. Verstappen witheringly says, “it's always like this” and that for a struggling Mercedes “a week later when things do go well, it's all of a sudden: 'oh no, but we turned it around completely within a week – not normal, unbelievable work – thanks to all people in the factory'”.

Williams ended up at the foot of the timesheets, but the team is upbeat it won't stay there

Photo by: Motorsport Images

Mercedes’ Bahrain speed trap figures do suggest there is more to come when the full engine modes are deployed for qualifying next Saturday. But the porpoising problem is just so severe and with it expected to take time to Mercedes to really address, lap time seems to be there for Red Bull and Ferrari to take advantage. Mercedes is confident it will eventually get things sorted – the question is when.

McLaren may have had a pretty disastrous second test having been so strong alongside Ferrari in Spain, but its Barcelona potential surely suggests its true form would place it adrift of Mercedes (and therefore much closer to the front) than the Bahrain one-lap times suggest. It should be very encouraged that it doesn’t have the porpoising issue to allocate time to and can instead focus on refining its package.

Other deductions put Haas’s form at anywhere from McLaren’s level to being at the back, but its various issues have held it back. It’s a similar story for Alfa and AlphaTauri, except the latter isn’t likely to swing right to the back of the order, with one Autosport paddock source instead suggesting it could instead bother Mercedes next weekend – which would be doubly delightful for Red Bull…

Reality will play out so very soon when the season starts next weekend, but it seems as if Red Bull leads the way as testing ends – just as it did 12 months ago. The leading teams from 2021 were always expected to retain advantages over the previous midfielders, but this time around Red Bull appears to have different company at the front of the new ‘favourites’.

Red Bull can be pleased with its efforts in Bahrain testing, although how its rivals stack up has yet to become clear

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images