Why Mercedes is pleased despite Verstappen starting well ahead in Mexico

There are clear reasons why certain venues on the Formula 1 calendar are labelled as ‘Red Bull’ or ‘Mercedes’ tracks.

It might be past form, such as Lewis Hamilton’s previous supremacy at Austin, which also counted for Mercedes being the pre-event favourite at Paul Ricard before Red Bull rumbled it there this year. Or it could be circuit characteristics – such as the sweeping, high-speed sequences at Zandvoort suiting Red Bull’s downforce strengths (with the additional benefit of a fervent home crowd boosting Max Verstappen – something Hamilton enjoys every year at Silverstone).

Mexico City is firm Red Bull territory – despite Mercedes being the most recent winner of the Mexican Grand Prix, last held back in 2019.

The specific reason for this designation, as you’re almost certainly sick of hearing, is because Mexico City’s high altitude boosts Honda’s jet-engine inspired turbo technology. The same is said of the next race at Interlagos, which sits at 760m above sea level – barely in the same league, height-wise, as the 2.24km high setting for F1’s current event. Verstappen’s back-to-back wins in 2017 and 2018 – when Red Bull did not have the championship’s fastest package – tick the past form box for this track too.

Indeed, following the opening day of practice running for the 2021 event, Red Bull and Verstappen are firmly in front. But Mercedes is still sounding pretty chipper.

It’s not because it topped FP1, where the track evolved considerably from the incredibly dusty state in which that session started. The clouds lifting off the ground were so heavy at one point early on that the dust rising from just before the braking point ahead of the first corner as cars arrived was practically obscuring others running towards the right-hander in the background.

Mercedes is pleased because of what happened in FP2.

Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

FP2 overall order

1 Verstappen Red Bull 1m17.301s
2 Bottas Mercedes 1m17.725s +0.424s
3 Sainz Ferrari 1m18.318s +1.017s
4 Gasly AlphaTauri 1m18.429s +1.128s
5 Vettel Aston Martin 1m18.681s +1.380s
6 Alonso Alpine 1m18.732s +1.431s
7 Raikkonen Alfa Romeo 1m18.841s +1.540s
8 Norris McLaren 1m18.979s +1.678s
9 Schumacher Haas 1m19.620s +2.319s
10 Latifi Williams 1m20.820s +3.519s

There, Verstappen, third in FP1 but just 0.123s adrift of pacesetter Valtteri Bottas, did romp clear. He did that on both the medium compound in the early running and the softs used for the qualifying simulation efforts in the middle part of the second one-hour session.

His 1m17.301s ended the day as the fastest time – 0.424s clear of Bottas, with Lewis Hamilton third, 0.509s slower than his title rival.

When comparing Verstappen’s best lap to those set by the Mercedes pair, sources suggest the Dutchman was apparently gaining nearly all his one-lap pace advantage from the Turn 8 right in the middle of the sweeping esses section halfway through sector two.

"We didn't come here expecting it to be easy and there is clearly a bit that we need to work on. But compared to some of our Mexico Fridays, we've got off to a decent start" Andrew Shovlin

From there, Verstappen then made consistent gains on the Mercedes pair – to be expected through Turns 7-8-9 and the ensuing Turns 10-11 swoops as faster sequences have suited the higher-downforce package advantage Red Bull has enjoyed all year.

Turn 9 was apparently a place where Verstappen made considerable gains – taking 0.1s over the Mercedes pair here alone as Bottas and Hamilton were forced to briefly lift. The Red Bull was also very compliant over the kerbs in this section too, which aided Verstappen’s effort.

But there are small signs of encouragement for Mercedes despite that big gap by the end of the FP2 fliers. For a start, the team reckons if he’d hooked up his best sectors, Hamilton would’ve shaved 0.15s back from Verstappen’s soft tyre advantage.

Mercedes is now at work to close the rest of the gap through overnight set-up work. Red Bull is of course doing the same to make the difference bigger…

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

“We've had a reasonable day,” said Mercedes’ director of trackside engineering, Andrew Shovlin. “The first session was a bit cleaner than the second, but the car and power unit seemed to be coping well with the altitude. We didn't come here expecting it to be easy and there is clearly a bit that we need to work on. But compared to some of our Mexico Fridays, we've got off to a decent start.”

Red Bull was also clocked going slower on the straights than Mercedes was yesterday. It has been suggested that the Black Arrows cars were roughly 6km/h quicker by the end of the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez’s main straight, with the RB16Bs losing out because that package produces more drag.

Red Bull appears to be using its full Monaco-spec rear wing, which Mercedes says it can’t match, and this meant the RB16Bs were clocked entering the straights much faster before slowing down as the drag effect kicked in. But the W12s are still running large wings to generate as much downforce as possible in the thin Mexico City air, it’s just that theirs are slightly smaller overall with top flap corners that also are more trimmed off.

Honda’s full-whack engine setting will likely negate the drag impact somewhat come qualifying and the race, but by how much is still be seen. What was recorded in Friday practice shows an early divergence on respective advantages in Mexico this weekend between F1’s leading teams.

“It was quite a good day,” Verstappen said of his efforts yesterday. “Of course, [we’re] always trying to improve the car, trying to make it feel better. In FP1 the track was very dirty, so in FP2 that was already a bit nicer. It seemed like the car is working quite well. A few things of course to look at, but [overall] pretty good.

“We have a good feeling, but of course [in qualifying] we need to be there as well. So, we’ll look into a lot of things. It’s a positive start to the weekend.”

Soft tyre averages

1 Mercedes 1m21.670s, 7 laps
2 Haas 1m23.278s, 5 laps
3 Aston 1m23.336s, 13 laps
4 Alpine 1m23.371s, 9 laps
5 Alfa Romeo 1m23.435s, 13 laps
*N/A Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren, AlphaTauri, Williams

Mercedes is also buoyed by the outcomes of the long-run data gathering exercises all the teams completed as usual at the end of FP2. Here, the two teams diverged again, with Red Bull only running the mediums (average order on this compound below) and Mercedes taking the softs (above) before switching to the hards.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

Mercedes chose not to run the mediums for a long run in FP2 because it wanted to preserve its stock for the rest of the weekend, with the yellow-walled rubber yet again set to play a key role in the starting race tyre strategy for the frontrunners. Plus, the team wanted to gain data on the softs in case that compound is actually needed in the race, as well as for the vital qualifying fliers.

The lack of direct comparison between Red Bull and Mercedes on late-FP2 compounds clouds the long-run picture considerably, but data Autosport has seen offers further encouragement for the reigning champion squad.

Unless Perez can close his own 0.570s gap to Verstappen in qualifying, a repeat of the current split would suit Mercedes nicely going into the race. Every point is going to be vital come the season finale, so Red Bull really needs both its drivers to maximise its return on favourable ground

After completing the seven-lap stint logged above on the softs, Bottas pitted to gather data on the hards. His times here came close to matching the best Red Bull was producing on the mediums (Verstappen’s 13-lap medium stint was regularly disrupted by needing to back off in the stadium section to avoid catching traffic). Although this would’ve been helped by fuel burning off, if we add Bottas’s soft laps to the six he did on the hards, this matches Verstappen’s full stint on the mediums.

Medium tyre averages

1 Red Bull 1m21.092s, 13 laps
2 Aston Martin 1m21.905s, 11 laps
3 Alfa Romeo 1m22.094s, 10 laps
4 Ferrari 1m22.105s, 9 laps
5 AlphaTauri 1m22.411s, 18 laps
6 Alpine 1m22.509s, 18 laps
7 McLaren 1m22.551s, 7 laps
8 Williams 1m23.581s, 12 laps
9 Haas 1m24.444s, 9 laps
*N/A Mercedes

The usual practice caveats about fuel loads and engine modes of course apply when looking at the long-run data, and it should be noted here that Mercedes apparently cycled through all its power unit modes throughout both sessions yesterday – just to make sure they were working as they should in the unusually high setting.

The Mercedes drivers were both also reportedly happy with their balance on high fuel when running the hards, which is an additional encouragement for the team.

“The long run picture is a bit tricky because we were on different tyres to our competition, but the balance is reasonable and the hard tyre seemed to be working nicely,” said Shovlin.

Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes W12, leaves his pit box after a stop

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Hard tyre averages

1 Mercedes 1m21.084s, 6 laps
2 Alpine 1m22.252s, 15 laps
3 AlphaTauri 1m21.603s, 9 laps
4 Aston Martin 1m22.929s, 14 laps
5 Haas 1m24.384s, 10 laps
*N/A Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren, Alfa Romeo, Williams

Mercedes now needs to work on closing the one-lap pace deficit to Verstappen, while hoping its long-run work pays off on Sunday. There is of course no guarantee that it can make the difference and Honda’s usual effectiveness at this venue shouldn’t be underestimated, despite Mercedes’ efforts to make its engine perform better at altitude.

But there are two further reasons why Mercedes is feeling somewhat pleased after day one at a ‘Red Bull track’.

For a start, unlike in 2019, it only has to worry about one other rival this time around, with Ferrari removed from ‘Class A’ by its ongoing power deficit. That said, the Scuderia itself should be happy to be so far clear of nearest rival McLaren on both one-lap and long-run pace yesterday.

Mercedes is also happy to have both its drivers beating Sergio Perez on one-lap pace in FP2.

The home hero lost much of FP1 when he smashed his rear wing against the Peraltada’s outside barriers early-on, although he felt “we didn’t lose that much” in that incident – other than nearly 30 minutes of potential track time as the subsequent repairs were carried out.

But unless Perez can close his own 0.570s gap to Verstappen in qualifying, a repeat of the current split would suit Mercedes nicely going into the race. Every point is going to be vital come the season finale, so Red Bull really needs both its drivers to maximise its return on favourable ground.

“I’m feeling more comfortable in the long run than over one lap, so I think there’s still potential to improve the car over one lap,” Perez explained. “Margins are going to be very close tomorrow with the Mercs, so hopefully we are able to lock out that front row.”

Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

The race is set to be a one-stopper for the frontrunners, with progress through Q2 on the mediums the ideal way to start. The lack of downforce in the thin air does mean the cars are sliding around more than usual, which means the drivers will have to be careful when it comes to preserving the rubber over a full race stint.

Turn 1 could be a particular flashpoint. It has been in the past here, while the outcome of Honda’s full grunt charging in to recover the time Red Bull is apparently losing to drag will be key.

There will plenty of other factors at play it and changes still to come – of course. But if Mercedes can get anywhere level with Verstappen (assuming he does clinch pole) on straight-line power and with the slipstream effect on the longest run from grid to first braking zone on the whole calendar, then F1 could still be set to see a tense race thriller at an event where one Mercedes insider said Verstappen was yesterday “in a league of his own”.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images