How Mercedes went from Austin practice domination to "very tight at the front" with Red Bull

From Red Bull’s point of view, Perez was leading the way in FP2 (above) because Verstappen pulled out of his qualifying simulation run on the softs after encountering traffic. The Dutchman had already had to do a second preparation lap after being frustrated at having to start a flier in the pack at the final corner, but backed off without setting a time on the softs after lighting up the timing screens in sector one.

Verstappen backed off when he was on course to improve, but Red Bull was satisfied by what it saw in the data

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

“We would have had enough information, that he had gone purple in sector one, [and] he aborted at Turn 12,” Red Bull team boss Christian Horner said after FP2. “So, we had enough info with what we’d seen so far.”

Given Verstappen is typically quicker than Perez to the tune of a few tenths, we can surmise that he would’ve been there or thereabouts with Hamilton’s deleted lap.

Going back to FP1, the large gap between F1’s leading teams is chiefly thought to be down to Red Bull running its Honda engines in a lower power mode compared to Mercedes, with Horner also suggesting his team’s rival “ran hard” in that session.

But Mercedes was also just slower overall in FP2. One team insider suggested this was because it had made a "negative improvement" – set-up changes that did not work as hoped, and will likely be removed from the W12s for today’s action. It is understood that neither Hamilton nor Bottas reported feeling particularly happy with their car balance in either Friday session.

The frontrunners are likely to try and get through Q2 on the mediums. At the same time, some Q3 contenders must be wary of the bigger than expected delta between the softs and mediums logged yesterday – 0.6s-0.7s

“It seemed like we'd lost a bit of pace,” said Mercedes’ director of trackside engineering, Andrew Shovlin. “Perhaps we'd not adapted to the hotter conditions well, others may have improved, or it could be that some of our changes haven't worked as expected. It's useful to have found a few issues that we can get stuck into [over Friday night] as there's plenty we can do to improve.”

What all of this points towards heading into FP3 and qualifying on Saturday is that at this stage it appears as if the fight for pole at Austin is going to be very close.

When it comes to comparing Perez’s legal FP2-leading time and Hamilton’s deleted lap, which apparently ended up being slower than it might’ve been because he’d gone a fraction wide at Turn 12, Mercedes suggests neither driver had a particular advantage on straight line speed or in the corners.

Hamilton lost time on the FP2 topping time that was subsequently deleted for track limits

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Now to the great straight line speed debate, which is being much discussed this weekend after Horner told Sky F1 during FP1 that "Mercedes are obviously optimising a straightline device" as an explanation of its strong form in Turkey. It’s worth noting at this stage that Mercedes’ position is unequivocal: it is not deploying a new or clever system to lower the W12’s rear on the straights.

The team insists nothing has changed on its rear suspension in recent races and neither is there is anything unusual about what has been spotted happening. Mercedes says such action is standard practice across all teams and that its rear suspension is the same design that it first deployed at the start of 2020.

Tearing ourselves away from the off-track squabbling as we must, let’s consider the tyres for a moment. Very much from the sublime to the ridiculous, but bear with us given this next bit could have a key bearing on the outcome of the first US GP for two years.

As Shovlin notes, it was very hot at the Circuit of the Americas yesterday – with track temperatures in FP1 a massive 18°C hotter than in the same session back in 2019.

That event reached the 28-29°C temperatures hit on Friday on the race day where Bottas was triumphant and Hamilton clinched his sixth world title, so the data the teams gathered yesterday is considerably more valuable given Sunday is set to be similarly hot, although predicted to be perhaps not as sunny.

Amid the sweltering temperatures, the soft tyres are also being overheated on Austin’s abrasive surface. There’s nothing unusual there, despite 40% of the track being resurfaced since 2019. It just means, as is typically the case here, that the drivers are finding grip is gone by the track’s final corners.

All of this means the frontrunners are likely to try and get through Q2 on the mediums. At the same time, some Q3 contenders must be wary of the bigger than expected delta between the softs and mediums logged yesterday – 0.6s-0.7s. This means some could be at risk of being caught out if a rival opts to take softs for the middle part of qualifying.

This is an option because Sunday’s race will mostly likely be a two-stopper given the heat, but such an approach does depend on being able to keep the red-walled rubber in shape for a lap’s duration.

Gambling on the soft tyre could vault midfield runners up the order in Q2

Photo by: Charles Coates / Motorsport Images

Medium tyre averages

1. Red Bull 1m41.474s, 11 laps
2. Mercedes 1m41.775s, 12 laps
3. Alpine 1m42.200s, 8 laps
4. McLaren 1m42.339s, 9 laps
5. Ferrari 1m42.342s, 11 laps
6. Aston Martin 1m42.414s, 13 laps
7. Alfa Romeo 1m42.615s, 10 laps
8. AlphaTauri 1m43.345s, 10 laps
9. Williams 1m43.605s, 15 laps
10. Haas 1m45.240s, 11 laps

Red Bull should be very encouraged that starting on the mediums looks to be the way to go at this stage. Not only does that offer the team greater strategic flexibility, but also Verstappen’s late-FP2 long run on the yellow-walled rubber was excellent.

Hamilton did produce a slightly faster average for Mercedes (1m41.035s), but that was done over a much shorter stint (six laps) and these were interrupted. Data Autosport has seen also suggests he started off slower than Bottas's longer stint included above and the world champion tracked his team-mate’s times at that difference before backing off and eventually abandoning his run on the mediums.

"There are some areas we can feel we can improve the car quite a bit. It’s a different challenge: it’s bumpy, it’s hot. It’s going to make it really interesting" Christian Horner

Mercedes insists it didn’t have a long-run edge on Red Bull on Friday. But it can take heart from the data showing Bottas being able to get right back to the best times Verstappen and Perez were doing at the end of their respective data-gathering efforts in FP2.

“The overall feeling from the second session is that it's going to be very tight at the front and both Red Bulls are looking like they are in the fight for pole,” concluded Shovlin.

“Mercedes are quick here, you can see that,” said Horner. “It depends what they’ve still got left in the pocket and what we can respond with. There are some areas we can feel we can improve the car quite a bit. It’s a different challenge: it’s bumpy, it’s hot. It’s going to make it really interesting.”

Judging by what was witnessed yesterday at Austin – where Autosport witnessed the Mercedes cars riding the considerable bumps at Turns 4 and 5 slightly better than the Red Bulls (although not by much, with Ferrari appearing very unstable by comparison, as evidenced by Charles Leclerc’s FP1 spin) – it appears things are set to be once again very tight for both the pole fight and Sunday supremacy.

That’s been said a lot this year in this Red Bull vs Mercedes slugfest, and of course all the usual practice caveats on engine modes, fuel loads and overnight improvements apply. But given Red Bull arrived in the US under something of a cloud given Mercedes’ recent pace and victories, it should be smiling that things seem as close as they do right now in the Texas sun.

The battle for pole is set to be closer than the headline Friday practice times appeared

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images