Why Las Vegas is Ferrari's best chance to snare another 2023 F1 win from Red Bull

Amid all the talk and speculation swirling around Formula 1's return to Las Vegas this weekend, there’s still a non-so-humble sporting event at the centre of all the much-vaunted glitz and glamour. That famous pizzazz that might just be dimmed if the suggested traffic gridlock and mass walkouts by 35,000 protesting waiting staff turn out to be accurate… 

So, then, who is the favourite to become the first F1 winner in Sin City since Michele Alboreto in 1982’s Caesars Palace car park grand prix? 

PLUS: The story of the hotel car park that hosted F1's first two trips to Vegas

Well, rather obviously given his current record-setting streak of 17 wins from a possible 20 so far, triple world champion Max Verstappen arrives with his Red Bull team as the driver to beat. That combination is clearly no outside bet – Verstappen is unlikely to lose focus even in a city so renowned for debauchery and distractions.

But there remains the possibility another team and driver combination could slot in ahead of Verstappen. After all, the 2023 formbook is decks stacked with results of Sergio Perez underperforming in the other RB19 – even if he has been stronger of late since an intensive three-day simulator session after the Qatar weekend. That’s around his home crash in Mexico, and Austin and Interlagos qualifying woes. 

But if Verstappen finds himself yet again in a solo fight at the front of the pack this Saturday, his jeopardy increases with a lack of team-mate support. Plus, street track bumps have caught Red Bull out this year, even if the team is understood to now have a much better understanding on the set-up changes required to traverse such track imperfections that it got so wrong in Singapore. 

McLaren may well insist it has absolutely no chance at this venue. But it has done that everywhere of late and then been right in the hunt for pole and bothering Verstappen in races, with Oscar Piastri even winning in the Qatar sprint. 

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

It would take someone brave to bet against Verstappen in Las Vegas

But, looking at the new 3.86-mile layout here in Vegas – second only to Spa in terms of track length on the 2023 schedule – it could well favour another team in the closely fought battle behind Red Bull. One that has already managed to snaffle the only victory Verstappen and co have let fall from their collective grasp this year. Ferrari. 

The Scuderia heads to Vegas with its pair of SF-23s adorned in another livery tweak. This one pays homage to the team’s 1970s F1 colour schemes, which a recent Scuderia press release opined as "something of a golden age for Formula 1 in America".  

But, given the Vegas track is essentially a series of very long straights sewn together with a series of staccato hairpins and 90-degree turns, Ferrari is expected to bolt on its ‘Monza special’ downforce package. This slimmed down its rear wing package on home turf and turned Ferrari into a genuine victory contender.  

While the straights dominate the new Vegas layout, it has been suggested that Monza-like slipstream battles won’t be the norm here, which possibly boosts Ferrari if it can qualify the slippery SF-23 ahead of Red Bull

There, soon-to-be Singapore victor Carlos Sainz took pole, led the early stages and was only undone by Ferrari’s lack of downforce in the few fast Monza corners meaning Verstappen’s rears wore less and the RB19’s extra speed running onto the straights there kept him in DRS range. 

The SF-23 also rides kerbs well and track bumps better than Red Bull, with it worth remembering here how only a sensational final sector in Monaco saved pole (and in essence the next day’s victory) for Verstappen there ahead of Aston Martin’s then ever-present Fernando Alonso and Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc. 

The latter is a regular street-track sensation, plus Mercedes still seems flummoxed by the W14 based on its Brazil showing. The Black Arrows squad was also nowhere, really, at Monza thanks to its car’s remaining drag issues.  

Also, the two hairpins of the corners of adorned with playing card symbols on their kerbs in Vegas should theoretically highlight the remaining low-speed turn weakness of McLaren’s MCL60, but we’ve been here before of late.  

Photo by: Ferrari

Sainz scored the only non-Red Bull grand prix win of the season so far in Singapore

And while the straights dominate the new Vegas layout, it has been suggested that Monza-like slipstream battles won’t be the norm here, which possibly boosts Ferrari if it can qualify the slippery SF-23 ahead of Red Bull given how Monza turned out. 

At the other end of the points battle, Williams is another squad with a straight-line speed prowess (and form on this front from Canada and Italy in 2023) hoping to cash out with a significant prize this weekend. Alex Albon said in Mexico that the new track “feels extremely quick” based on his experience of driving it on Williams’ simulator.  

The teams were rather split on how early they got their drivers in to do this preparation – with Ferrari and McLaren amongst those conducting such running between the Qatar and Austin events, while Haas and Red Bull (in Verstappen’s case at least) left it until after Brazil.  

“A lot of the corners are even flat still,” Albon added of the Vegas layout. “So, there's not so many corners, which obviously favours us.” 

Albon also touched on what is expected to be the weekend’s major sporting talking point, which is how the cars behave in desert night temperatures that can reach as low as 4°C this time of year. This has long been a focus for the teams and tyre supplier Pirelli, but was highlighted again in comments former F1 sporting boss Ross Brawn made to TalkSport last week. The famed F1 engineer stated: “The one thing we hadn’t considered initially, but the tyre company have dealt with, is it gets very, very cold at night.” 

This provoked incredulity in some quarters and outrage in others, which might end being rather misplaced given the temperatures at the time of writing are forecast to be closer to double what was feared at their lowest overnight point. This leaves them more in line with what the field experienced at the 2020 Eifel GP at the Nurburgring, rather than F1’s coldest ever race (which is the 5°C experienced at the 1978 Canadian GP). 

But that forecast is still on the nippy side for precocious prototype racing machinery and the rubber that gets bolted onto it. It’s why Albon wondered if he and his colleagues will be “doing three or four prep laps for qualifying”. 

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

The cards appear to play to Ferrari's strengths, but races aren't played out on paper

Exacerbating the cool temperature problems are, again, the long straights, as here the tyres are predicted to fall out of their ideal operating windows fast – especially under safety car conditions. And with low-downforce packages required across the grid – not something needed at the Nurburgring – this combination is where the chaos could start, if it does. 

Again, cooling tyre temperatures theoretically boosts Ferrari too in that the SF-23 warms its boots well. That trait may well also help its drivers retain better tyre temperature levels over a race stint, which would help in maintaining tyre life – so long a Ferrari weakness.  

Its customer squad, Haas, will surely be rubbing gloved hands in anticipation on this front on arrival in the ‘Capital of Second Chances’. But all the teams are even more in the dark than you’d typically expect for a night race – for the first new Vegas event at least.  

Driver track walks weren’t even set to be in the event’s timetable, which removes a typical layer of late preparation for the teams at a new venue

This is because although they have had the exact track specifications for over a month (there is a 30-day pre-any new F1 event for the teams to be supplied with the FIA’s final event reference plans, via race director Niels Wittich), the critical full scanning of the track surface can only be done properly once they arrive this week. 

There’s nothing in the rules preventing teams from sending track scanners to Vegas well ahead of the event. But the late build-up to this race, which has meant at times even single lanes of highway being shut down at a time to get the night race event infrastructure in, and the public setting means the data they might have collected can’t be relied upon as at a purpose-built facility. 

Even the full track scans completed this week will be done on roads that will be open for public use as much as possible to minimise disruption for the bustling city. Therefore, driver track walks weren’t even set to be in the event’s timetable, which removes a typical layer of late preparation for the teams at a new venue.  

But the ever-changing track surface adds to the already considerable test of nailing F1’s dark arts challenge on getting the best use of the tyres for qualifying and the race.  

Photo by: Jim Utter

Adapting to the ever-changing track surface will present a unique challenge

Plus, the data that is gathered takes time to be accurately calibrated in F1 sims – even at the top squads. The scans and race weekend data gathered in 2023 will therefore more likely be beneficial for the second Vegas street race, according to several paddock sources. 

There’s plenty then pointing to a recipe for a shock result weekend. Even though, of course, Verstappen and Red Bull will try their combined best to avoid it. Once again, F1’s thrilling billing will meet the cold, hard processes of the engineering teams – all trying to ensure the most boring way to score the best result. As is their raison d'etre.

All at arguably the most anticipated new race of F1’s recent calendar explosion, with $500 million alone invested by the commercial rights holder for the paddock building, at a race F1 is promoting itself. A gamble to watch and check the payout.

Photo by: Las Vegas GP

Las Vegas is a trip into the unknown for all 10 teams. Who will be dealt the best hand?