Why it's a Red Bull vs Ferrari battle in F1 2024 testing's long run times

Right now, Formula 1 observers can’t even say we’ll know the true state of the 2024 pecking order this time next week. Although it's agonisingly close, the season-opening Bahrain Grand Prix is still eight days away.

But, testing at the Sakhir track is in the books for another year. The headline pace times have Ferrari heading Mercedes, Sauber and reigning world champion squad Red Bull down in fourth.

While that is unlikely to be the way the pack lines up on the grid a week on Saturday, with Red Bull having eschewed anything like true performance running with its leading star Max Verstappen, the long runs that became the focus as testing concluded provide a clearer picture.

Clearer, but still murky. We’ll get that out of the way early because of the testing fuel load and engine mode caveats with which you, the discerning Autosport reader, will be so familiar.

And what has been conjured by the long run picture among the 2023 frontrunners is actually incomplete in one sense. This is because Mercedes’ decision to conduct its high fuel running over regular shorter stints of around 10 laps on the second and third days of the test means its times really can’t be compared with its rivals right now.

McLaren, too, is something of an outlier. But in the orange team’s case, this is because reliability problems stymied its planned race simulation running – particularly the fuel tank detritus issue that struck in the second session of day two.

Lando Norris said this was “not exactly what I wanted”. He’s right to be miffed, as a lack of long run practice with the Pirelli tyres can hamper a driver and it’s given his team-mate Oscar Piastri a handy boost in the key area where he was often short against Norris in his rookie season. Piastri was able to complete near enough a full GP length simulation for McLaren over the course of the final session on day three.

Piastri was the only McLaren driver able to get a proper race simulation in as Norris was stalled by McLaren's reliability troubles

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Day 3 PM long runs averages

Looking at the times logged in that session for the 2023 frontrunners minus Mercedes (above) and things appear rather as expected for Red Bull and Verstappen when it came to the C3 tyres that will be softs for the season opener. It has a 0.443s advantage over Aston Martin, with Fernando Alonso at the wheel, and 0.626s in hand against the Charles Leclerc-driven Ferrari. Piastri’s average came in a 1.330s chunk down. But this stint is the only one of the three these drivers completed at testing’s end we’re considering because stint lengths and tyre compounds diverged from there.

What these C3 times do suggest, given Leclerc ran for a healthy dose longer than the others, is that Ferrari’s average should’ve been closer to Red Bull all things being equal. Those caveats again…

Day 2 PM long runs

Stint 1

Stint 2

Stint 3

Ferrari demonstrated eye-catching pace on the second day with Sainz's race run

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

But what really had F1 transfixed in the long run stakes were the much more comparable race simulations logged in the second session on day two by Red Bull (Sergio Perez), Ferrari (Carlos Sainz) and Aston (Lance Stroll).

The green team went its own way on tyre usage – sending Stroll out on the C3s (that are typically the medium tyres at most F1 events) to the C1s and then C2s (which usually form the harder compounds selected for the race events). But Red Bull and Ferrari tracked the same way – Perez and Sainz moving up the compound order C3-C2-C1 over very comparative stint lengths in what were also near enough full GP length tests.

And, on each tyre, Ferrari led the way from Red Bull. It’s C3 advantage was 0.450s, on the C2s Sainz came in 1.152s ahead and with the C1s there was a 1.709s gap.

What’s telling here is that those gaps are so shockingly big. It suggests Red Bull was running with even more fuel than its red rival which should be considered typical. Such a swing from 2023 is simply too unlikely to be the true picture. But, Ferrari can take heart from one important aspect of these times.

This is because although Sainz went from a 1m36.725s first lap on his C3 stint to a 1m39.126s at its end, on the C2s and C1s he was able to hit same low 1m37s and mid 1m35s bracket even after a long stint on the harder compounds that have undone Ferrari in previous year.

Leclerc revealed in the press conference on the final day that the Scuderia feels it “definitely did a step forward in terms of tyre management”. This is thanks to its focus on having a more predictable and stable car design overall.

“I am confident,” Leclerc also said. “Because whenever tyres are more used, the weaknesses of the car are more apparent. You can feel them more. And with the characteristics of this car, it should be quite a bit better.”

Remember, it’s the hope that gets you and Red Bull was obviously holding back considerably in this test – speed trap data Autosport has seen suggests its engine may have been turned down, for another dose of cold reality – but that’s a real sign of positive progress for Ferrari.

Can Ferrari spring a surprise in the 2024 F1 opener or is Red Bull holding back its true potential?

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images