Why it could still go wrong for Leclerc and Gasly

Pierre Gasly and Charles Leclerc are ready for their promotions to the big-time with Ferrari and Red Bull in Formula 1, there's no doubt about that. But it's impossible to say, conclusively, that they will cut it in the white-hot intensity of the front of the grand prix field.

Those two statements might seem at odds, but they encapsulate a fundamental truth that nothing prepares you for the pressure, the demands, the sky-high standards right at the top of elite sport.

It's not a question of speed, it's not a question of overtaking ability, it's not a question of feedback quality and it's not a question of consistency. It's about delivering those proven qualities amid the most intense scrutiny, which is phenomenally difficult.

You might scoff and say it's not a case of life and death, and that's true. But listen to those who are, or who have been, at the very highest level of sport and so many paint a picture of almost unbearable intensity.

That's the constant battle of performing at your best when the stakes are highest - the mechanism for which is doing your thing as if there are no stakes at all. The failure to do so is at the root of many who have struggled.

There are warnings from the past for both drivers. Plenty of drivers have struggled in the pressure-cooker environment of Ferrari, perhaps the most obvious example being Ivan Capelli in 1992, albeit in a season that was one of Ferrari's periodic visits to F1's rock bottom.

In Red Bull's case, while Max Verstappen thrived when he was promoted after a season and four races with Toro Rosso into the A-team, winning immediately, Daniil Kvyat didn't do himself justice. Yes, he outscored Daniel Ricciardo in 2015, but that was distorted by Ricciardo having the worst of reliability when the car was at its strongest.

"Kvyat didn't quite have the mental capacity to deal with it here at that time. Only time will tell with Pierre" Christian Horner

While Verstappen's meteoric rise and the need to get him into the top team as quickly as possible to ensure he was settled with Red Bull played a part, Kvyat's lack of robustness was at the heart of his fall. Hitting Sebastian Vettel twice in the first few seconds of the Russian Grand Prix in 2016 was the final nail in the coffin.

None of this, of course, means Kvyat was slow. Far from it - he was, and still is, a seriously fast racing driver. Ask Red Bull team principal Christian Horner what makes him confident that Gasly will succeed where Kvyat failed, and you get an equivocal answer.

"It's a different level here," says Horner. "[Kvyat] didn't quite have the mental capacity to deal with it at that time.

"Only time will tell with Pierre. I feel he's ready to make that move, I feel he deserves the chance and only time will tell whether he can cope with the pressure that comes with being in a high-profile team."

The same could be said of Leclerc. Horner has been around long enough to know that you can do what Gasly has done - pass every test at every level - and then still have things go awry. To use an educational analogy, both drivers have made it through their GCSEs, A-levels, undergraduate and postgraduate degrees and even their PHDs with flying colours. Everything has been building towards earning this opportunity.

By definition, when you get into a top team you are almost certain to be up against a driver who has shown they can cut it. In the midfield, it's possible to fade in and out of form.

Both Gasly and Leclerc have outperformed their team-mates - Brendon Hartley and Marcus Ericsson. But they are a very different pair of opponents to Verstappen and Vettel. Underperform against either of those drivers and you will be nowhere. Ricciardo has been performing well and struggles to get within a tenth-and-a-half of Verstappen in qualifying. Kimi Raikkonen has also had a good season, but rarely manages to beat Vettel on outright pace.

What is beyond doubt is that both Leclerc and Gasly have delivered 'race-winning' drives in the midfield. Gasly's two 'Class B' victories - in Bahrain and Hungary, when he headed the midfield - were simulations of how you might go about winning at the front. Excel in qualifying, break the opposition early on, then control from there.

While Leclerc hasn't 'won' in the midfield, he was on his way to doing so and in the middle of undercutting his way past Nico Hulkenberg at Silverstone when his Sauber let him down. These were first-rate performances.

Both drivers have also got away with moments when they have underperformed. Look at the criticism Vettel has rightly received for the mistakes he's made. Yet barely anybody noticed Gasly underperforming in Q3 at Monaco - instead focusing, with some justification, on his excellent race drive.

Leclerc's struggles in the first few races of the season, and his spin in Germany, are barely remembered. To draw attention to those moments sounds extremely harsh, and it is. But the front of the field is exactly that unforgiving.

None of this is to say that performing in F1's midfield, in your rookie season, is easy. It isn't, but the step up to the front intensifies everything. All your mistakes are, rightly, raked over in minute detail, every fraction of a fraction of a second accounted for. That's not just by the watching world, but by the teams who scrutinise every aspect of performance.

The best drivers, those who not only have the speed but also the ability to rake over every detail, can not only cope with that intensity, but also thrive amid it. Those who don't quite have the fortitude can wilt. The key is to learn from the errors, no matter how small, but not dwell on them.

Encouragingly, both have not only demonstrated that they can do this in a midfield team, but also with the attention lavished on them from Ferrari and Red Bull.

It's been a long time since Ferrari has taken a risk on so inexperienced a driver as Leclerc, so the analysis that will have gone into ensuring his performances tick every box will have been rigorous. And he will have known that every step of the way.

Given how tight the midfield is in F1, tiny differences can have a huge effect on your result - often crossing the dividing line between points and no points - but Leclerc has thrived in this environment.

If there isn't an early big result, then the scrutiny will become ever-more intense. This is the effect that can break drivers

Gasly, meanwhile, is a phlegmatic character who has avoided getting bogged down in the kind of negative spiral that traps so many.

"Any racing driver always wants to have the best of everything, but the good thing is that he respects the team's decisions," says Toro Rosso chief race engineer Jonathan Eddolls. "He respects the team's decision and if it doesn't go his way he respects that and doesn't get upset about it.

"He doesn't let that bother him, it just becomes a non-issue. He doesn't let things play on his mind. Some drivers can do that, they focus on one thing just because it hasn't necessarily gone their way and then that becomes the biggest thing and then it becomes the excuse.

"Pierre is fantastic, it's like he's got a filter. Anything that is irrelevant to him, or that he's got no control over, he'll put that to one side and focus on what he can do and drive the car as quick as he can. He is very good at that."

That's a big plus. If a driver can't do that in the thick of the midfield, they are unlikely to be able to do it in the thick of the big-team battle. Both Gasly and Leclerc have shown similar strengths, it's just that being up front will test that sturdiness to an even greater degree.

This is why what Jackie Stewart famously calls 'mind management' is so critical to the success not just of any F1 driver, but anyone competing in elite sport. The demands are unique, and in their intensity impossible to simulate.

This also makes hitting the ground running crucial. A big result early on can settle a driver and prevent the pressure to deliver from becoming overwhelming. Both Gasly and Leclerc are eminently capable of doing so.

Just think of the boost Ricciardo got from outqualifying reigning champion team-mate Vettel in Australia 2014 and finishing second on the road (prior to his disqualification). Or the impact of Verstappen's victory in Spain on his Red Bull debut.

If there isn't an early big result, then the scrutiny will become ever-more intense. This is the effect that can break drivers.

None of this means Leclerc and Gasly will fail. They are both outstanding talents who deserve their shot and most likely they will thrive. It's just that everything they have done up to now has been about earning this opportunity.

The pressures on them won't be different in form next year, just in strength. Everyone has their breaking point, but the best in elite sport never, or at least very rarely, get to theirs. That's the test these two drivers will face, and most likely revel in, in 2019. Chances are they will succeed, but it could yet go wrong for them.

Next year it will be time to pass the final exam and demonstrate, above all, that they have the mental strength to be true top guns.