Why Ferrari should be quietly confident it's really in the mix for Monaco success

There are several factors at play that explain all this excitement for Ferrari.

First, and at this stage most importantly, Leclerc set the day’s fastest time just past FP2’s two-thirds complete mark – 10 minutes after Sainz had set the second quickest time. Hamilton’s best FP2 time came just a few minutes before Leclerc’s session-topping lap was set.

Timing is crucial here, because there is a significant track evolution factor to consider at Monaco, with the 2.07-mile circuit typically set to have ever-faster times recorded as the event progresses towards qualifying, having started out rather ‘green’.

That factor is so significant, F1’s leading teams aren’t expected to try progressing through Q2 on the mediums this weekend, as it would leave their drivers vulnerable to soft-shod runners going quicker at the end of the middle part of qualifying. Hamilton offered a theory about the track evolution factor witnessed so far in 2021.

“This is a track where you need to walk before you can run, but you've got to do that quickly, obviously,” he said post-FP2. “The grip on this track is really high this year, they've redone the surface so there's a lot of grip.”

In terms of the long run data gathered in FP2, it was even more meaningless than usual. The traffic problem added to the reduced practice running in 2021 meant the runs completed were very short – even before Mick Schumacher’s shunt at Massenet ultimately brought FP2 to a premature conclusion

The other major consideration when assessing Leclerc’s headline pace is that Autosport understands he was recorded running in a more powerful engine mode on that fastest run – at least compared to Mercedes. But, encouragingly for Ferrari, it is understood that Red Bull was also tracked running at what was thought to be similar power levels, which translated into an approximate advantage of 6mph over Mercedes when Leclerc, Verstappen and Hamilton respectively reached the top of the hill at Massenet on their fastest laps.

Hamilton and Verstappen also encountered problems on what might be considered the best laps of their soft-tyre runs in terms of tyre life – the first fliers. The world champion clattered the kerbs at the chicane’s second apex and lost out big time as he fought to keep his car out of the wall on the exit. In the Red Bull, Verstappen was hampered by traffic.

But the reason why Ferrari should be quietly confident that it really is in the mix at this stage of the elongated Monaco weekend concerns just when in their respective soft-tyre runs all the frontrunners did set their best times.

In terms of the long run data gathered in FP2, it was even more meaningless than usual. The traffic problem added to the reduced practice running in 2021 meant the runs completed were very short – even before Mick Schumacher’s shunt at Massenet ultimately brought FP2 to a premature conclusion.

But, for what it’s worth, Mercedes reckons it is a step behind both Ferrari and Red Bull on the longer runs that were nevertheless completed – and it’s not sure why at this stage. It could be that it was running more fuel compared to its two rivals during the closing stages of FP2, but, equally, the team admitted it could just be off the pace at this stage.

“This season we've learnt to expect Max's company in the battle at the front, but it was a surprise to us to see both Ferraris looking so strong,” said Mercedes’ director of trackside engineering, Andrew Shovlin. “You don't need to scrutinise the timesheets for long to see that their pace is genuine – they could be real contenders for the win.”

Time for another caveat. Thanks to Monaco’s unique timetable, all the teams have an extra day to crunch through the data and work on improving their packages before the F1 action resumes on Saturday. And if there’s any team that has proven it can work from a possible early disadvantage to still claim success when it matters in 2021, it’s Mercedes… The Black Arrows also appeared to be managing its tyres nicely today, at least based on the time Hamilton set his best FP2 lap.

So, the suspected engine mode differences, track evolution factor and a history of appearing off the pace on Friday all combine to make the cliche: don’t write off Mercedes. But Ferrari’s Monaco pace is fundamentally plausible. After all, its rivals insist its apex speed has been very good at all the races completed so far in 2021, and that it has been let down by – that’s right – its engine performance. And that just isn’t a massive factor in Monaco…

“We missed the best of the tyre window [in FP2],” explained Red Bull team boss Christian Horner. “And we've got a little bit too much understeer in the car at the moment for [Max’s] liking. So, it just needs tuning out. I don't think we're a mile off. I think a bit of a tidy up and, hopefully, we should be right there.”

The Monaco GP session that really does matter is, of course, qualifying. Based on what was seen today, and with those typical caveats and historical precedent warnings in mind, it seems that a three-team fight for pole could be possible come Saturday.

Ferrari, which for what it’s worth is very much playing down the times set today, almost certainly isn’t 0.3s clear of the two teams that have dominated F1 so far this year, but it is perhaps in play in way it hasn’t been since the end of 2019.

"It was quite frustrating from behind the wheel because I'd cross the line [and] be like, 'yeah, probably a decent lap' and it was like, 'yeah, you're P12 or P15' or even at one stage 'P17'" Daniel Ricciardo

“It’s looking good,” said Leclerc after FP2. “For now, it’s looking a bit too good to believe it. So, let’s wait and see. Saturday, we’ll know exactly where we are in qualifying, and we’ll go from there for the race.”

At McLaren, Lando Norris's sixth best time overall in FP2 put the stunningly re-liveried squad fourth in the Thursday pecking order – the Briton saving a wild moment at the second part of the Swimming Pool during that session's closing stages, cutting across the second apex after catching the rear of his car. But in the other MCL35M, Daniel Ricciardo ended Thursday down in 15th. And he was initially at a loss to explain why.

"I felt like I had confidence, it was just not translating to lap time," he said. "Honestly, it was quite frustrating from behind the wheel because I'd cross the line [and] be like, 'yeah, probably a decent lap' and it was like, 'yeah, you're P12 or P15' or even at one stage 'P17'."

"I wasn’t pushing too hard into the corner, but I lost grip at the end of the turn and unfortunately tapped the wall," he explained. "I’m not sure how much this will affect my preparation for the race, obviously a loss of running isn’t ideal."

Antonio Giovinazzi's FP2 efforts positioned his Alfa Romeo squad nicely at the end of Thursday. He felt "the balance of the car had improved" after FP1, which aided his cause.

Sebastian Vettel led the way for Aston Martin, despite FP2 being "more complicated because I got something in my eye, which was quite uncomfortable". To be clear, the issue was causing Vettel to tear up rather than any bleeding occurring, after he’d vividly described the sensation on his team radio.

In FP1, Autosport observed from our trackside vantage point opposite the Rascasse bar for that session that Vettel was often carrying more speed into the double-apex right than many others, which occasionally caused him to check up for the second part and lose momentum. He also demonstrated the traffic problem at Monaco perfectly, stamping on the gas at one point in the closing stages after Esteban Ocon had arrived in a hurry just behind.

Alpine was trialling a small number of updated parts in FP1 – where Fernando Alonso was fortunate to avoid suffering major damage when he hit the barrier at the final corner mid-way through the morning running and knocked his front wing askew. The A521 apparently behaved better once the test parts had been "adjusted" for FP2, per team racing director Davide Brivio, but Ocon reckoned Alpine was still finding its way to the limit as Thursday's action ended.

At Williams, George Russell felt the team had a "productive day” with the car “roughly where we expected it to be". He also reckoned "the Alfa Romeos look really fast", which is something that Williams apparently "did expect on this kind of circuit". Nicholas Latifi had a big slide in front of Autosport during FP1 but did very well to keep his FW43B out of the Rascasse exit barriers and limp away unscathed. In FP2, he briefly came to a stop at the hairpin after a “weird pushing moment” that the team is yet to explain.

Haas brought up the rear of the field once again – the team opting to give its two rookies soft tyres early in FP1 to aid their progression in their challenging circumstances at this track. Nikita Mazepin and Mick Schumacher were regularly keeping well out of the way of other drivers at Rascasse in FP1, which is probably good practice as "we’re under no illusion about being lapped at this race with our current pace," according to the former.

In terms of race strategy, a one-stopper is the most likely scenario for all the teams, as is typical for Monaco. Given the danger of trying to get through Q2 on the mediums, a soft-medium strategy is predicted by Pirelli

Schumacher's shunt was the biggest of the day, which he said was down to a "small mistake", which Haas team boss Gunther Steiner reckoned was getting “a bit close to Checo [Perez] and lost a little bit of downforce, and just had a quick oversteer which he couldn’t recover from".

In terms of race strategy, a one-stopper is the most likely scenario for all the teams, as is typical for Monaco. Given the danger of trying to get through Q2 on the mediums, a soft-medium strategy is predicted by Pirelli.

Intriguingly, there is a small risk of rain occurring before F1 action resumes in Monaco, which "might reset the asphalt conditions", per Pirelli motorsport boss Mario Isola.

How that might shake things up of course is unknown – and in any case it might not even happen. But, based on today's running, F1 should return to full life in Monaco on Saturday quietly hopeful that Ferrari's practice promise holds true and a captivating battle for pole plays out.