Why Ferrari must avoid Barcelona repeat

During the 2018 Formula 1 season, Ferrari has often converted a difficult Friday into a much stronger Saturday and Sunday. It's therefore logical to expect a significant step even after an ostensibly uninspired Friday showing at Paul Ricard - but there is one big asterisk.

At last month's Spanish Grand Prix, the usual pattern would have resulted in Ferrari and Sebastian Vettel turning a low-key Friday into a better Saturday - so much so that it seemed the combination was still Barcelona favourite even after Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes set the practice pace. But it didn't happen.

Earlier this month, in Canada, Mercedes and Hamilton looked mighty on Friday, but Ferrari turned what Vettel called "disaster" into triumph and he went on to win.

So the question is: which framework will the French GP weekend follow?

In Spain, both Vettel and team-mate Kimi Raikkonen strongly hinted that Pirelli's decision to use tyres with a compound 0.4mm thinner to combat blistering problems encountered on the resurfaced circuit worked for Mercedes and against them.

Vettel, of course, recanted when he had the chance to try the normal tyres in the post-race test, but it still seemed the Mercedes was more comfortable on the Pirellis in Spain than has sometimes been the case. That might also have had a lot to do with track configuration and car characteristics, though.

But the question was less whether the thinner tread worked against Ferrari, and more if it mitigated a negative for Mercedes.

Certainly, Hamilton was happier with the car in Spain than at any other race this year and he beat Vettel in qualifying before crushing Ferrari in the race.

Those tyres are back for this weekend, just as they will be for next month's British GP, thanks to the similar track surfaces. So could that play against Ferrari?

Regardless of the reasons, on pure lap times Mercedes looks mighty. On Friday Hamilton was 0.704 seconds faster than next-best Daniel Ricciardo with the best Ferrari a further two tenths back.

To this the caveat must be added that the ultrasoft runs were compromised by the red flag triggered by Sergio Perez's Force India shedding a wheel.

While Hamilton was himself disrupted by this thanks to being on his out-lap when the session was stopped, both Ricciardo and Vettel were prevented from having a second attempt on ultrasofts and Raikkonen and Max Verstappen were also sent back to the pits before they could complete a flier.

Both Mercedes drivers were doubtless aided by the introduction of the phase two engine that was originally due to run in Canada

Even so, had Valtteri Bottas not been prevented from going back out after the red flag thanks to a water leak, based on his pace on softs it seems inevitable he would have slotted into second place.

Both Mercedes drivers have an upgraded engine, the one postponed from its scheduled introduction in Canada two weeks ago amid reliability questions, and it seems this has helped its cause. That's another bit of lap time gained that Ferrari must find after its own engine upgrade in Canada.

So for qualifying, given Red Bull's Renault engine doesn't have the magic qualifying engine modes of its rivals, you'd expect that to translate into a Mercedes front row, with Ferrari on the second row but the Red Bulls close enough to try to nick a second-row spot. Unless, of course, Ferrari strikes back on Saturday.

Raw pace

1 Mercedes (Hamilton), 1m32.539s
2 Red Bull (Ricciardo), 1m33.243s
3 Ferrari (Raikkonen), 1m33.426s
4 Haas (Grosjean), 1m33.699s
5 McLaren (Alonso), 1m34.400s
6 Toro Rosso (Gasly), 1m34.535s
7 Renault (Hulkenberg), 1m35.067s
8 Sauber (Leclerc), 1m35.583s
9 Force India (Ocon), 1m35.705s
10 Williams (Stroll), 1m35.936s

The long-run data is sketchy, but still looks very encouraging for Mercedes - with both drivers doubtless aided by the introduction of the phase two engine that was originally due to run in Canada two weeks ago.

Every team did give some indication of their long-run pace on the ultrasoft rubber, although most others were split between supersofts and softs in terms of their evaluations.

Based over four laps on ultrasofts, Mercedes still has the advantage but Ferrari does look closer.

Long-run pace

1 Mercedes (Hamilton), 1m37.824s
2 Ferrari (Raikkonen), 1m38.245s
3 Red Bull (Ricciardo), 1m38.642s
4 Toro Rosso (Gasly), 1m38.943s
5 Renault (Sainz), 1m39.062s
6 Force India (Ocon), 1m39.172s
7 Haas (Grosjean), 1m39.199s
8 McLaren (Vandoorne), 1m39.275s
9 Sauber (Leclerc), 1m39.612s*
10 Williams (Stroll), 1m40.057s
*based on three laps

This is potentially encouraging for Ferrari, subject to the progress that is made. Plus, Vettel looked quick and consistent on the supersoft rubber he did his long run on - but thanks to Bottas's water leak in practice two there's no comparative data from a Mercedes.

Strategy-wise, Pirelli anticipates an orthodox one-stopper with a stint on ultrasofts then another either on supersofts or softs. Given the degradation is not severe, there is less pressure for the frontrunners to use a harder compound to set their Q2 times to avoid the softest tyre in the race - although there could still be a potential benefit there.

The chances of much strategic variation, however, are very limited. The reduction of the pitlane speed limit from the usual race mark of 80km/h (50mph) to 60km/h (37mph) tips the balance even further in favour of a one-stopper.

Most likely, qualifying here will be every bit as important as it was in Canada and Monaco. The Paul Ricard circuit is far from a good circuit for overtaking, and nobody is expecting much passing come the race.

What the track does offer is a lack of familiarity. While the vast majority of the drivers have at least some experience of this track, and six of them have won races here in other categories, it is still far less familiar to them and the teams than the usual circuits.

There were multiple offs during the two practice sessions, with even Fernando Alonso spinning, while three of the drivers with wins to their names here - Esteban Ocon, Stoffel Vandoorne (both from the Formula Renault Eurocup) and Brendon Hartley (from the European Le Mans Series) - were also among those to loop it. Marcus Ericsson's Sauber even managed to find the wall and catch fire.

Even a light wind at the wrong angle can trigger a snap of oversteer. So there is potential for the unexpected in Q3

There are some bumps here that have taken drivers by surprise, while there are also patches where the asphalt has been relaid thanks to being torn up by the six-hour Blancpain GT race here earlier this month.

But perhaps the biggest wildcard is the famously unpredictable Mistral wind. Ericsson blamed his crash on the wind, and many of the spinners at the slow Turn 6 were down to unexpected gusts that destabilised cars. This also played havoc with car balance.

Given how critical these cars are aerodynamically, even a light wind at the wrong angle can trigger a snap of oversteer. So there is at least some potential for the unexpected - particularly in Q3 when the drivers are right on the limit.

On paper, only such misadventure or misfortune can threaten Mercedes. But as technical director James Allison confirms, nobody in the team is entirely sure what Ferrari might come up with for Saturday.

"The team in Brixworth have moved mountains to deliver the updated unit in time for France and we are looking forward to racing it in anger," says Allison.

"The car is behaving well, the tyres seem to be in decent shape and the pace looks alright.

"However, we've had good Fridays before and were then disappointed Saturday and Sunday, so we need to make sure we take nothing for granted and carry this form into the days that really count."

What is certain is that Vettel will unquestionably be stronger, and you can guarantee he won't be that far off in qualifying. His ability to work relentlessly and methodically on improving the car, along with a team that is outstanding at evolving its machinery over race weekends, always allows for improvement.

"On one lap it looks like we're a little bit behind," said Vettel. "For the long run, I don't know, I think they were quite OK. But rather than studying the data, I think it's understanding what the car needs, what I need to do with the car.

"Usually, come quali we are able to pick up the pace but I need to understand what I need to do to the car, and on top of that [we need] to make the car faster, we should be fine.

"The car is quick but I wasn't able to be quick with the car today. Simple as that. Sometimes you have these days. It's a tricky track, it's not easy to get everything right from start to finish, some corners are very difficult to find the sweet spot.

"But on the long run I was able to play a little bit more, try different things with lines and understand a little bit more.

"Hopefully I can start from there tomorrow, should have more rhythm, and car-wise we can improve as well, it's not where it we should be."

That's an ominous sign for Mercedes. But Ferrari still needs to find a way to make that big step, and it won't only come down to the work it does.

It might be that Mercedes works well on these tyres, and the combination of that and this circuit configuration means the team can extract Spain levels of performance from the car.

The smart money is on Mercedes having the edge. But remember, even in Spain Vettel was just 0.173s behind in qualifying - so expect things to be much closer on Saturday whatever happens.