Why Ferrari is struggling and how it can turn its F1 fortunes around

It was all smiles at Ferrari’s pre-season launch event at Fiorano. Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz exuded a quiet confidence and ease on the day that the SF-23 was revealed to the world, while new team principal Fred Vasseur was equally assured in his first public event with the squad.

There were plenty of reasons to be optimistic within the confines of its Maranello headquarters. A lean period, instigated by the FIA’s investigation of Ferrari’s power unit design that resulted in many of its horses bolting, proved to be finally over and the team had enacted a recovery for 2022. Although the season exposed many of the squad’s weaknesses, new leadership would surely help Ferrari to challenge Red Bull on a much more consistent basis, particularly after its charge last year tailed off.

Three races into the 2023 season, and Ferrari appears to be in disarray once again. Confidence in its design concept appears to be wavering, Leclerc and Sainz have made uncharacteristic errors, and the haul from the Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Australia tripartite of opening races has yielded just 26 points.

On raw pace, Ferrari shouldn’t be in this position. The SF-23 is quick, particularly in qualifying trim, and Leclerc has twice been close to pole this season. He was just 0.3 seconds behind pole-winner Max Verstappen in Bahrain, and under 0.2s off Sergio Perez’s best lap in Jeddah to underline the competitiveness of the scarlet machine in qualifying. If Leclerc can unearth that last nugget of time, or if Sainz can string a lap together, there ought to be a more concerted challenge to break the Red Bull deadlock on the front of the grid.

The races, however, are a separate story. While performance in Australia was much improved – Sainz was able to push Fernando Alonso for a podium finish at Albert Park – Bahrain and Saudi Arabia were far more difficult nights to endure. Good qualifying performances were not built upon, and the cars around the SF-23 on-track were better at contending with the added demands of a two-hour Sunday drive.

We’ll take that into consideration as we assess why Ferrari has faced such a torrid start to 2023, and what the team needs to do to achieve an upturn in fortunes. For the engineers, the task is thankfully not nearly as daunting as being forced to turn an uncompetitive car around, but rather to ensure that a promising design can be taken advantage of.

Does Ferrari need a concept change?

Taking a leaf out of Red Bull's design book may not be the answer for Ferrari

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

It’s evident to all that Red Bull had found the best way in to mastering the 2022-spec Formula 1 regulations. As such, many of the 2023 cars feature influences from the RB18, much in the same way as the F1 field did in 2003 in bearing design hallmarks from the all-conquering Ferrari F2002. Ferrari has largely followed its own path with its channelled sidepods developed to help get the beam wing working harder.

Although ‘concept change’ has been a frequently bandied-about term when it comes to F1 car design, it usually ends up referring to the sidepod design given the vast differences in shapes and dimensions initially seen on the first fleet of cars under the current regulations. In 2022, many of those differences initially stemmed from various approaches to getting the floor to create a seal, either through a light flex or in shaping the edges, and to offer interaction with tyre wake after the bargeboards were axed.

“We have a flow of updates that will come, not for Baku, but for Miami, Imola, Barcelona - at each race we’ll have an update on the car” Fred Vasseur

Although Ferrari has stuck to the formulation that it used to pose some threat to Red Bull last year, the Milton Keynes squad has made quite the leap over the off-season to pull some way clear. Those in charge at Ferrari must therefore work out whether to stick or to twist. Developing a car more similar in dimensions to the RB19 would hardly be the work of a moment; it would require the team to completely change course mid-season, hardly a desirable outcome given the limitations of the cost cap.

Sainz made his support of a concept shift evident in Melbourne. “At the moment the Red Bull is superior everywhere,” he said. “It’s superior in quali, in races, in straightline speed. They are superior in medium/low-speed corners, they are superior with tyre management, superior over the kerbs and bumps. It just shows that we clearly need to change something.

Sainz suggests Ferrari needs to look at a new concept

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

“We need to go and check something very different from where we are now. I think the extremely good performance at the start of last season made us keep pushing with this concept, with this project of car. But I think we realise now that Red Bull has a clear advantage everywhere and that we need to start looking to our right and to our left.”

That’s a somewhat damning indictment but, although the drivers can make their case for the car’s development direction, the team principal has the final call. In that instance, Vasseur says that copying the school swot’s homework isn’t an option for the team – instead, he still has faith that, with development, the SF-23 can work out for the team once the key issues have been addressed.

“No, I don’t think so,” Vasseur replies, when it’s put to him that Ferrari could consider a switch in concept. “I think that we have a flow of updates, that some will come, not for Baku, because we have the aero package for the level of downforce, but with the sprint race it is not the easiest one. But for Miami, Imola, not Monaco, but Barcelona, at each race we’ll have an update on the car.

“And we are sticking to the plan. But we made some adjustment I think in terms of balance and behaviour, and it was much better in Melbourne, and we’ll continue on this direction. It’s not a B-car if that is what you want to say. We won’t come with something completely different. We will continue to update this one and we’ll try to update massively.”

Suppressing the appetite for tyres

Ferrari rapidly chewed through its tyres in the heat of Saudi Arabia

Photo by: Ferrari

Without a full shift in design direction, Ferrari must eke out every drop of performance from its current concept. One key issue that became increasingly apparent in the opening couple of races was the SF-23’s proclivity to munch through its tyres like a bowl of cereal. The effect was diluted in Melbourne thanks to a recently resurfaced track, but the heat of Saudi Arabia and the abrasion of Bahrain turned Ferrari’s tyres into a soft camembert.

This was partly why Ferrari’s race performance was so stilted, notwithstanding the grid penalty that Leclerc took in Jeddah following the electrical issues faced in the Bahrain opener. There were reasons to be cheerful in that race at Sakhir – Sainz did well to hold off Lewis Hamilton in the final 10 laps, while Leclerc was on for a podium before his car ground to a halt. But the arrears to the Red Bull duo were vast, and neither driver could continue to push throughout the race in the same vein as Alonso. Where the Aston Martin driver had the tools to keep chipping away at gaps and mount overtaking moves, the Ferraris had to ease off and were led by degradation.

“At the moment we are very limited – we cannot race people too much because the car is difficult in dirty air. We eat the tyres so it doesn’t allow you to push in the race to overtake people” Carlos Sainz

“Honestly our analysis from the first few races is there’s no fundamental issue with the car, it’s just a very peaky car – a very unpredictable car in the race,” Sainz explained when asked to assess the SF-23’s shortfalls. “It eats the tyres quite a lot. So, it’s just we need to improve our package; it’s just too peaky and we need to find a way to calm it down a bit, which is what also makes the car difficult in the race.

“The good thing is that everyone knows it. We know it on the race track, they know it in Maranello and the good thing is that Ferrari has this manpower, this capacity to react.

Sainz describes the Ferrari SF-23 as a "very peaky" car

Photo by: Lionel Ng / Motorsport Images

“At the moment we are very limited – we cannot race people too much because the car is difficult in dirty air. We eat the tyres so it doesn’t allow you to push in the race to overtake people or we need to tyre manage a lot. And this means in the race you are a bit stuck – you cannot play around too much.”

There are a few ways of suppressing the car’s appetite for Pirelli’s finest rubber that Ferrari can take advantage of, but it’s dependent on which school of wear the team struggles most with. Running a tyre for too long outside of the ‘window’ – the optimum range for peak performance – is going to have detrimental consequences for the tyre: either though degradation of the compound through overheating, or graining while the tyre is too cold. For qualifying, the engineers command the drivers to do preparation laps in a certain way to anticipate slotting the tyres into that window for the bulk of the lap – but, in a race, it’s harder to keep the tyres there.

This is one of the key design traits that Red Bull appears to have going for it. With a stable aerodynamic platform, the RB19 appears to avoid any unnecessary pitch and roll, ensuring that the sprung mass does not stuff the tyres with load when there is a coupling effect. There are many other considerations too, such as set-up and mechanical loading, and Ferrari must strike a perfect balance between speed and tyre management to ensure that it can continue to progress.

Reducing points waste

Ferrari drivers have thrown away points, such as Leclerc's Australian error

Photo by: Lionel Ng / Motorsport Images

Many of the early derailments in Ferrari’s bid to close the gap to Red Bull afflicted Leclerc in Bahrain, but the tremors were felt in the following rounds. The ignominy of a non-score at the Sakhir circuit when a podium looked nailed on will have hurt. But the resulting penalty for taking a third ECU, outside of the year’s allowance, inflicted further pain and snatched away a front-row start two weeks later in Jeddah.

Leclerc’s over-eagerness at the start of the Australian Grand Prix, when an attempt to go around the outside of Lance Stroll ended with the Ferrari in the gravel, wasted more points. Once again, the Ferrari was a podium contender, and the late restart at Albert Park offered Sainz the chance to break into the top three – at least, until he came to blows with Alonso. The penalty that the younger Spaniard was handed dropped him out of the points, ensuring that the resources Ferrari expended in going to Australia were wasted at the end.

“When you are jumping on Charles or Carlos or any other drivers in the TV pen 30 seconds after the race, for sure they can’t be happy. And I would be very frustrated if they were relaxed and happy with the situation” Fred Vasseur

Ferrari thought it had a case with which to appeal the decision, citing a crash in 2014 at Montreal between Perez and Felipe Massa. Perez took the blame and a penalty, and Force India – for which Perez drove at the time – submitted a right to review petition on the grounds that the drivers could not give evidence at the time. This was granted, since both Perez and Massa had not been able to go to the stewards’ office because they were in the medical centre. It didn’t matter to Ferrari that the 2014 decision was upheld in favour of Massa, but the team hoped that Sainz’s testimony counted as new evidence. Ultimately, the FIA did not rescind Sainz’s penalty.

This has left Ferrari sitting fourth in the constructors’ table after three races, with Leclerc’s only contribution coming with seventh in Jeddah. Ferrari is 78 points short of where it was at the same point last year, and much of that deficit has not come from a lack of performance. Despite a poor return of results, Vasseur is adamant that the drivers (particularly Leclerc) have not let their heads drop.

Vasseur insists the Ferrari drivers have not let their heads drop

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

“I have absolutely no doubt about the motivation of Charles,” he says. “For sure the start of the season is not ideal. We had the DNF in Bahrain and the penalty in Jeddah, and the DNF in Melbourne. It was not at all the plan. But the motivation is still there. You know that I have a good relationship with Charles. And this won’t affect the mood.

“But when you are jumping on Charles or Carlos or any other drivers in the TV pen 30 seconds after the race, for sure they can’t be happy. And I would be very frustrated if they were relaxed and happy with the situation. The most important thing for me is to keep everybody motivated, pushing in the same direction and they are supporting the team. The motivation is not an issue at all. For sure the results are not as expected. But we all know that.”

The main target for this weekend’s Azerbaijan GP will be a clean event. That’s far easier said than done, but the race team must take each session step by step and focus on getting the basics right. Preparation for qualifying will certainly be of importance, but not as life-or-death as Melbourne given the strength of DRS along the Baku circuit’s Neftchilar Avenue. For the drivers’ part, they just need to avoid the walls.

The SF-23 hasn’t shown its full hand yet

SF-23 seems strong in low-speed corners compared to the Aston Martin

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

Owing to the proliferation of issues that have pegged Ferrari back in the opening rounds of the season, it’s fair to say that the full potential of the SF-23 has yet to be unleashed. Qualifying in Bahrain and Jeddah offered glimmers of impressive out-and-out speed, but it seems to be difficult for the team to consistently draw this out. It, again, appears to relate to a lack of consistency in finding the best operating window for the tyres.

Looking at the GPS traces, the Ferrari does have clear strengths relative to the Red Bull and the Aston Martin, particularly in the low-speed corners. The RB19 is the best car in terms of dealing with anything at high speed, and can also build up lots of downforce in the medium-speed corners to cling onto the road. The AMR23, meanwhile, is a much stronger car in traction zones. Aston Martin has produced a draggier proposition than the Red Bull, but the team has the initial acceleration that could offer great opportunities at lower-speed circuits.

A difficult start to the year should not result in kneejerk decisions, and Vasseur continues to assess the team’s structure after coming in at the start of this year

For everything else in between, the Ferrari seems to do quite well. The car is very good on the brakes, and seems to be quite compliant in the slow-speed corners – a trait that the Ferrari lineage has possessed over the past few years. It also seems to, according to the traces, occupy the hinterland between Aston Martin and Red Bull in the acceleration stakes. Outright traction is not as strong as the Aston Martin but, once the AMR23’s top speed tails off, the Ferrari is a quicker car until the Red Bull has built up its momentum. Extrapolating that, it’s possible that the Ferrari could shine at the likes of Monaco and Hungary, depending on developments and the success of its high-downforce package.

Monaco could be a happier hunting ground for Ferrari

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

These are, admittedly, situational strengths. Ferrari needs to do more than just be best outside of the Red Bull/Aston Martin Venn diagram. But those strengths exist; the car is not fundamentally flawed in every facet, and perhaps Vasseur’s keenness to persist with the current upgrade path will be justified.

It’s very easy to say that all teams should simply copy the best car in the field; although it has been done before, to varying degrees of success, it may not necessarily offer all the answers in the long term. Ferrari may feel that its own concept is the best interpretation of the 2022-spec F1 regulations in the long term, but big-picture planning is difficult in an environment where the stopwatch and results are the only quantitative measures of success.

Whether the 2023 car offers a pathway to glory, or a switch to a Red Bull-influenced concept for 2024 is in the offing, only Ferrari can make that call. A difficult start to the year should not result in kneejerk decisions, and Vasseur continues to assess the team’s structure after coming in at the start of this year.

But it must not come to decide on its future purely based on pride, nor should it be afraid to make unpopular decisions in the interests of long-term success.

After all, Ferrari’s title drought is reaching 15 years – and it must surely become apparent that sentimentality rarely offers positive results.

Ferrari's wait for a first F1 title since 2008 goes on

Photo by: Rainer W. Schlegelmilch / Motorsport Images