Jon Noble: Why Ferrari could be a dark horse for the title – but we can't be sure until October

Amid all the excitement about Formula 1’s championship battle between Red Bull and McLaren, it has almost snuck under the radar that someone else is genuinely in the mix too. While the focus has been on what is now an eight point gap between F1’s top two teams, few outside of Maranello have realised that Ferrari is well in the mix – just a further 31 points back.

The Prancing Horse’s pre-summer break struggles with its Spanish GP floor served to almost make the squad anonymous when it came to title talk, as all eyes revolved on how Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri were faring against Max Verstappen.

The high-speed bouncing that Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz endured helped deliver a period of four races – Spain, Austria, Britain and Hungary – where Ferrari collected just a single podium. Sainz's third place at the Red Bull Ring was only made possible after Verstappen and Norris collided battling for the lead.

Following its disastrous Canadian Grand Prix, where too cold tyres in qualifying and then a double DNF in the race marked one of its worst outings for years, Ferrari seemed to have disappeared from the radar.

PLUS: The Verstappen broadside that underlines Ferrari's alarming recent slump

But having worked on a solution to its floor problems through various evolutions – with the latest spec arriving in Monza last weekend – the ace it had up its sleeve during its fallow spell was the points it already had in the bag from strong form earlier in the championship. Indeed, it is almost remarkable to think that despite the disruption of its high-speed bouncing spell, Ferrari has lost just 13 points to championship leaders Red Bull since the Monaco Grand Prix – which effectively marked the end of the first chapter of its season.

Sure, McLaren has stepped things up and slashed into what was a 92 points deficit to Red Bull in that same period, but all that matters now is how things shape up over the remaining eight races. And there is no denying that, based on what Ferrari pulled off at Monza to leave McLaren shell-shocked, it seems to be more on top of its car now – which bodes well for the next tracks on the schedule.

Leclerc stunned McLaren duo Piastri and Norris for Ferrari at Monza last weekend

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

As Sainz said of Ferrari turning the corner in Monza: “This was decisive also for the constructors' because we've been the team scoring the most points, and that means that it is a big chance not only to get more wins through the year, but to fight for the constructors'. I think it is going to be, if we manage to be quick also in other tracks, tight with McLaren and Red Bull.”

One of the truisms of F1 right now is that the top cars all have different strengths and weaknesses – which means there is unlikely to be a runaway candidate through to the end of the year.

For all of Red Bull’s headaches over its imbalance problems, the RB20 remains super strong in terms of aero efficiency and in high speed corners. McLaren, based on what we saw at Zandvoort, is better on high downforce venues that have long medium-speed corners. Then Ferrari seems the best in the shorter, lower speed turns – with it certainly not lacking in terms of straightline speed.

"We need more samples on this new floor and we need to go to more normal tracks. I guess the next normal one is Austin because the ones coming up are very particular"
Carlos Sainz

In basic terms, this tees up a scenario where Ferrari will be a strong contender at the next two races coming up – in Baku and Singapore.

But while this could be the start of a great month for Ferrari, there is a caveat before we can start thinking about it properly being back in the championship fight. And that is because we cannot be sure the bouncing problems which ruined that spell from the Spanish GP have been banished completely. If they have not, then it will have little hope against McLaren.

Monza’s low-downforce configuration and the nature of its corners meant the team has not yet had the evidence it needs to be sure the bouncing has gone. It won’t find out at Baku and Singapore (which are predominantly short slow corners) either. That answer, says Sainz, will have to wait until October when F1 heads to the United States Grand Prix.

“We need more samples on this new floor and we need to go to more normal tracks,” he said. “I guess the next normal one is Austin because the ones coming up are very particular, Baku and Singapore. Austin is back to a more normal race track and that will tell us how good we are with this new floor.”

Ferrari's true test will come at Austin to see if it has fixed its bouncing problems

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Ferrari’s celebrations may have been great on Sunday night, and the glum faces of McLaren duo Norris and Piastri after the race told their own story about how what they felt had been lost that afternoon. But Ferrari team boss Fred Vasseur says that joy now counts for nothing as it is the details that are going to count.

“There is something like 450 points on the table,” he said on Sunday night about prospects until the end of the year. “It’s so tight, the fight, that honestly, I’ve spent a couple of years on the pitwall, but it’s the first time I think in F1 that we have this situation that eight drivers can win the race – without accidents or a big crash.

“Four teams are able to win or to be on the podium, and it’s changing from session to session. For me, the most impressive was probably Spa, where you had McLaren [fastest] in FP1, Red Bull [fastest] in FP2, we started from pole and Mercedes won the race. I have a feeling it’s almost like this everywhere, except Lando who dominated in Zandvoort.

“You can expect that until the end of the season it will be like this, and it will be a huge fight. It’s true that with eight cars with this kind of competitiveness, one team can do a 1-2 and the other one seven-eight – and I don’t want to speak about DNFs. So this can make a huge difference in terms of points.”

Sounds like game on, to me.

Can Ferrari maintain its recent form and turn it into a title push?

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images