Why 2022 could be Leclerc's best chance to end his Monaco F1 curse

The long-run picture is even more complicated than usual at this stage of a weekend. For a start, the teams took very different approaches to tyre usage across FP1 and FP2 – for instance, only Ferrari used the medium compound in FP1 and it stayed off it completely in FP2 – and the stint lengths vary pretty wildly.

"Clearly compared to Ferrari we still need to find more pace, so now it’s all about fine tuning and finding a better balance" Max Verstappen

Therefore, as impressive as Aston Martin’s average on the soft tyres in the table above appears, the short stint length suggests it possibly was carrying slightly less fuel than that aboard the Ferrari and Red Bull cars being driven by Leclerc and Max Verstappen that registered their teams’ respective best long-run times on that compound.

And, in any case, there were plenty of anomalous lap times that were discarded in calculating the averages as drivers encountering traffic and making mistakes – particularly on certain bumps (more on that later) – meant their times varied quite considerably. This was much more than is typically the case at a smoother, wider purpose built venue.

But based on the data that is usable, it looks good for Leclerc right now. Doubly so, because Verstappen was not able to match Perez over a single lap in FP2.

Verstappen declared himself happier with his FP1 set-up than what he ended up with in FP2

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

“We tried quite a few different things with our set up today to see how the car is behaving, I was happier with the car in FP1 than in FP2,” said the world champion.

“If we get better balance we can attack the corners a bit more, then of course our lap times will improve. Clearly compared to Ferrari we still need to find more pace, so now it’s all about fine tuning and finding a better balance.”

Even if the long run picture as it appears to be standing on Friday evening doesn’t transfer over to Sunday’s grand prix, if Ferrari can beat Red Bull to pole then it stands in the commandingly best position. That certainly hasn’t changed about Monaco in 2022.

Overtaking is of course going to be nigh on impossible, which means strategy variance presents a much better chance of getting one car ahead of another. And, based on what was registered on Friday, there is a high chance that even a front-running squad will look to try something different.

This is because the tail end of the times that created those soft tyre long-run averages above suggest the soft tyre isn’t holding up wonderfully. It will still be the key tyre come qualifying, of course, but given the teams now have free rein to start on any of the chosen compounds, it may be worth a gamble on starting on something other than the softs given the high probability of a safety car interrupting the race.

Consider that the FP2 overall times set the grid for Sunday’s race. It might just be worth the team starting behind (hypothetically, Red Bull), and definitely for squads further down the order, starting on a harder compound to try and force the issue in clear air when cars starting ahead on the softs come in to pit (assuming, of course, Ferrari in this imagined scenario didn’t just put Leclerc and Carlos Sainz, who ran his team-mate close in FP2 but needed longer to get there, on the one set of new mediums they still have available for the rest of the weekend).

The safety car poses a threat if there's an early incident, as it always does to a contra-strategy – that it is negated, and everyone ends up on the same rubber. Plus, the hards didn’t show nearly as much graining as the soft and mediums on Friday, so it wouldn’t be too much of a punishment to fit them very early if required.

Strategy could have a significant part to play in the event of a safety car

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

If a safety car comes later in the race, however, then that aids the harder-start-tyre gamble, as a driver could gain time with a rival having made a green flag stop. The mediums were also said to be holding up much better compared to the softs on Friday and so might encourage teams to start on that compound in any case.

So, perhaps this race will hinge on safety car timing regarding a big crash, but it seems just as likely that qualifying could too.

With two victories already to his name in 2022, the pressure on Leclerc to deliver on a single win shot is removed – as that was what drove him on so desperately in 2021

This is because the ground effect cars are really on the edge at the fastest parts of the Monaco layout. The cars, some more than others, are simply bottoming out on the bumps with the lower, stiffer set-ups and overall ride heights created by this type of aerodynamic formula and the less sophisticated suspension allowed for 2022.

This is especially the case at the first chicane around the Swimming Pool, where Vettel had to catch a massive sideways moment and Daniel Ricciardo crashed in FP2. But Massenet at the top of the hill is a real challenge too, as is Mirabeau – where George Russell said Mercedes was “almost doing a wheelie” with its front wheels popping off the ground – and of course the long-standing bump out of the tunnel.

F1 returnee Kevin Magnussen said he “didn’t know that Monaco was this bumpy, it has always been pretty smooth”, but the Mercedes duo, almost inevitably given how this season has played out so far, were vocal about the ride challenge this weekend.

It’s not the porpoising problem that plagued the Silver Arrows squad in the opening races of the season returning. Simply the lower, stiffer 2022 cars are making too much, repeated, contact with the ground as they pound around.

“It's the bumpiest the track has ever been, it's probably the bumpiest track I've ever driven,” said Lewis Hamilton, whose trip down the Mirabeau escape road ruined what was shaping up to be his best lap on the softs in FP2 and so contributed to his 0.861s gap to Russell in that session.

Hamilton wasn't happy with his Mercedes car's porpoising in practice

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

“Our car is quite...it bounces a lot. It's different, it's different bouncing to what we've experienced in the past. It's just because it’s in the low speed also, so it's not aero. I think it's just the bumps on the track are making it worse. It's the bumpiest roller coaster ride.”

Based on Autosport’s trackside observations, the Ferrari is skipping across the bumps as well as was to be expected from its compliant and predictable package. But all drivers were struggling with the Swimming Pool section, which raises the prospect of this area of the track being critical to the 2022 Monaco weekend’s outcome as it was in 2021.

“You can’t be flat around the Swimming Pool,” reckoned Magnussen. “But maybe in qualifying when the track grips up a bit more and the fuel is lower, maybe [then] it will be flat. It is on the limit. Whereas, in the past, it was certainly easily flat on low fuel and new tyres. It has become way more of a challenge I would say.”

The threat of rain impacting Sunday’s proceedings could throw out all expectations for this event – that also hasn’t changed about this place – but as the party rages around Rascasse right now, it seems Leclerc stands in the best place he could hope to be at the end of opening practice for his home event.

He has already explained again how his Q3 crash here last year was down to “trying to push too much”. So, perhaps this is the best place on which to end regarding his ‘Monaco curse’. Again, things are shaping up as his best chance to end such superstitious nonsense given his practice prowess. But at least, with two victories already to his name in 2022, the pressure to deliver on a single win shot is removed – as that was what drove him on so desperately in 2021.

All that remains is the expectation of a nation, however small, his team-mate ending up just 0.044s slower on Friday, and a relentlessly charging title rival…

Can Leclerc continue his Friday form when it really counts and score a popular home result?

Photo by: Carl Bingham / Motorsport Images