What's really happening with the Mercedes 'crisis'

Mercedes is in crisis and Ferrari has the 2019 world championship in the bag; that's the dangerous assumption many have leaped to.

But even if you set aside the fact that making definitive judgements based on the first pre-season test is impossible given the picture is changing as we speak, Mercedes was never in that big a hole.

Even so, there are still questions to be answered, with the first conclusions being drawn in Barcelona as test two began on Tuesday.

Lap time analysis from the first test, which is always based on multiple assumptions to give a pointer towards likely form rather than a certain answer, suggests Mercedes was as much as half-a-second off. But other estimates, including some from rival teams, suggested a reduced deficit.

Dealing in tenths given the size of the error bar means that we can be sure Mercedes, if it is in any trouble, is not exactly floundering.

But there is work to be done.

By everyone's calculations - even those of Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff, who declared "Ferrari is ahead of the pack" last weekend - Ferrari led the way after last week's first pre-season test. But given there's no race to be run at Barcelona in February, that's nothing more than a snapshot of where teams are in their preparations.

The W10 reappeared this week with some visible changes, which included modified endplates encouraging aerodynamic outwash and a cutout in the corner, and a tweaked nose.

Tempting as it is to assume these are all a direct reaction to last week's running, they aren't. A package of this magnitude, with a number of visually-obvious changes underpinned by a multitude of invisible and incidental non-performance components, can't be designed and manufactured in just a few days. So this was already planned, which is in keeping with what Wolff has already said.

"The more time you have, the more you will develop the car," said team boss Toto Wolff last weekend.

"It is completely usual and normal to have a development step between the tests and sometimes between the last test and the race because this is the development slope we have through the season and it is the same here.

This raises the question of whether Mercedes really has a fundamental problem

"How much it is varies between team and team and obviously we don't know what the others will bring, but we will improve our package definitely from what we had in week one."

The Mercedes package has definitively changed and, you would assume for a team of this quality, improved. By how much is impossible to say given the team rightly continued on its usual programme on Tuesday and it's difficult to make performance comparisons.

We've become so used to Mercedes starring from the off in testing with performance and durability that expectations are always sky high and any perceived lack of pace is magnified.

What is a little different from its past approach is that Mercedes does appear to have started testing with a more basic package than some of its rivals, with this week's significant augmentation supporting that idea.

So what Ferrari has done - or should that be not done?

On Tuesday, there were no obvious changes to the Ferrari beyond the switch to a single wastegate exhaust outlet, and even though that doesn't mean there are no tweaks under the surface it pales in comparison to a Mercedes that has had changes to most, if not all, of its aero surfaces. It may well be that Mercedes was running a launch package signed off earlier in the process than Ferrari's was, and has leaped to a later version for test two.

Just as in the first test, the headline lap times for Mercedes on Tuesday weren't attention-grabbing. Just as in the first test, running was focused largely on the second-hardest Pirelli tyre, compound 2.

This is a team following its well-established, measured programme and the outcome will surely be an improved car. The question is, by how much? The range of the changes, if successful, hint at a significant gain.

This raises the question of whether Mercedes really has a fundamental problem. Valtteri Bottas certainly accepted progress needed to be made last week.

"We have work to do, but it is a good feeling in the sense that it feels like there is potential," said Bottas.

"We do need to make improvements.

"We were struggling a bit over the week to find a good balance for all the corners. There were some corners that were good, some corners we would have balance issues and other corners [where] we would have massive balance issues.

"We were getting to a much better state at the end of the week, but some of the handling issues can only be sorted with some upgrades. We're hoping to fix those hopefully soon."

Bottas's description for a first test isn't especially unusual, although it is odd for Mercedes given how things usually go in its pre-season testing.

F1 cars rarely have a perfect balance straight out of the box, even if most teams seemed to be closer to being on the money from the off this year than in seasons past. Balance issues like that could be solved by what is still one of the key performance differentiators, along with engine package, in F1 - downforce. Mercedes must surely have more of that here with this package, which emerges from later in the development process (and by more than the week the gap between tests might suggest).

Much has been made of the fact Wolff has admitted that if a major change needs to be made to the aerodynamic concept it could be a question of months rather than a quick fix. But that was a response to a hypothetical question. Mercedes might yet need to make a big change, but hasn't said it has to even though there are circumstances that might have played against it.

While Mercedes excelled last time there was a major aerodynamic rule change in 2017, becoming the first dominant team to carry that over into the following season, this year's smaller change would likely be at the root of any trouble. The front wing, bargeboard, brake duct and rear wing rules have changed, and having carried over its car concept from last year with an evolutionary approach it's possible this has led to problems.

Whatever happens, Mercedes gets the benefit of the pre-season testing doubt given its record over the past five years, even if it has started off behind where it has been in pre-season testing in previous campaigns

The switch between an inwash endplate last week and an outwash one this week is a significant change. It seems unusual for such a dramatic reverse, with most teams suggesting it's a foregone conclusion to go with the maximum outwash geometry allowed by the rules, but according to Mercedes this was always in the plan. If the test one car was based on a significantly earlier version of the car than this week's, that is plausible.

There's also the suggestion that the Mercedes concept of not running high rake, and sticking with a wheelbase that is longer than most to give maximum distance to condition the airflow, is a problem now the rules have changed.

There's all manner of theories about Mercedes struggling with front wing downforce with steering lock, possible given the reduction of the front wing to five elements each side and the elimination of the forward furniture.

The rake might be an issue, for as Gary Anderson suggested last week the inability to get the nose close to the track to maximise the load created by ground effect might mean it needs more downforce created by the front wing area whereas others, such as Ferrari and, in the extreme, Alfa Romeo, can cut it back.

From the outside, it's difficult to be certain what, if any, of these hypotheses hold water. Internally, those in the team are confident that they understand the problems and haven't been thrown a major curveball.

The "months" Wolff referred to would refer to a task the size of changing to a combination of the Ferrari/Alfa Romeo style cut-back front wing and an increase in rake.

It's an appealing idea that this is the way Mercedes must go, but the assumption was at the end of 2017 that it would go to a higher-rake design and that never happened. As James Allison said late last year, things that are visible always draw the attention.

"Rake is like noses, everyone talks about them because you can see them," said Allison, whose 2018 car ran slightly increased rake compared to '17 and has apparently carried over roughly that level to this year.

"It's crept up during the year, but we're clearly not tail up, nose down and in all likelihood you can make a competitive car high or low rake. For us to say as an article of faith that high rake is the way to go, you'd spend a lot of time wading around below your current level of performance before you found all the tricks necessary to get back where you are today.

"I suspect someone with high rake might look at our car and wonder if there's more value in low rake. It's just a question of developing what you have. I guess if God were designing the car he'd be able to tell us but I doubt whether anyone else knows!"

With Mercedes currently crunching the numbers of its first day of test two running, which was shortened by the need for an engine change thanks to what was described as an "oil pressure problem", and those of us on the outside picking through what data is available, you might need to be a divine being to know how the competitive order really stacks up.

But things are looking less problematic this week than they were last week. Provided, that is, the Mercedes upgrade is doing what is expected.

Whatever happens, Mercedes gets the benefit of the pre-season testing doubt given its record over the past five years, even if it has started off behind where it has been in pre-season testing in previous campaigns and benchmarking its performance so far against its performance at the same stage in previous seasons raises questions.

While it remains out on a limb with its concept, and a comparison with how well it has hit the ground running in previous years suggests it is behind where it normally would be, that in itself doesn't automatically mean it needs to dial back and rebuild. Especially given how well its car has worked during the past two seasons.

If it does, then that could have a defining impact on the world championship battle and Ferrari's early advantage could roll into the start of the season. If not, then it could well be more of the same for the Mercedes winning machine.